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Russia, like China has a future

Last time I talked about how the West (the US ) tends to project its own problems onto China, assuming for example, that there are various “crises” in China, just as there are or have been in the American “market”.

The difference is really between economies that are financialized so success is measured in numbers, increased value of stocks and bonds and economies where success is understood in productivity and improvement of public life.

Such projection is a sad mistake in the case of China. The US falls behind year by year— despite what Google says.

We can also see something similar in the case of Western assessments of the Russian economy. The West simply doesn’t learn.

First, sanctions were supposed to cut Russia off at the ankles.

That failed, as you know.

Then, came the argument that Russia’s was a “war economy” and would collapse under the weight of massive expenditures

CSIS

.But the economy grew. It was the economies of the West that came under pressure. Ukraine was a blackhole sucking cash into an alternate universe.

Then, this year Western analysts leaped for joy to see what looked like a “cooling” of the Russian economy, : “See, we were right”.

No, wrong again.

They would have been right, if Russia were the US of A. Or if their economic predictions were not just wishful thinking.

Russia’s current economic “downturn” as it repetitively called — actually reflects progress: it is what you would expect in an economy that is shifting its orientation, adapting, evolving and developing in new directions.

The Russian government, specifically top officials like Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and President Vladimir Putin, frame the country’s mild deceleration—where GDP growth projections fell to 0.4%—not as a failure, but as a deliberate, progressive milestone.

How could that be?

Normalization and “Cyclical Correction”

Natural Post-Boom Reset:

The slowdown is healthy stabilization after a boom period which has been accompanies by rapid change, the lessons of which must be absorbed. ..

Soft Landing and directed development:

This slowdown is deliberate and controlled, starting with central bank monetary tightening to curb inflation and rein in raw growth in favor of stable and directed development in specific areas, some of which are new and require new goals.

Economic dynamics are cyclical in market economies. After high growth, there is always a correction. Boom and bust would be normal for a Western economy. In Russia, there had been a boom, but the country avoided a “bust”.

Rather. Russia entered a recovery period after intense activity, rather like an athlete needs rest after training hard. This is a normal stage for the economy. It’s like training for sports. After intense training, you need a change of pace, before returning stronger and better.

No good will come from forcing yourself until you drop.

Structural Transformation: The slowdown is categorized as a necessary friction period while shifting the entire economic architecture, transitioning to a “supply-side” economic model, strengthening the social and industrial base.

Domestic Supply :Russia is successfully building an autonomous “supply-side economy.” The cooling phase allows resources to be reallocated to new, internal manufacturing chains.

Import substitution: Russia is no longer dependent on Western sources for many products to support its industry. A good example is the MC21 aircraft which uses no foreign components and has avoided the problems afflicting tits Chinese equivalent, the COMAC C919 which is hobbled by supply chain issues as a result of its reliance on foreign components.

Deliberate Redistribution of Wealth

The collapse of the USSR led to massive redistribution of wealth into the hands of nomenklatura who became the “infamous” oligarchs. Putin was able to purge some of them and bring the rest to heel, more or less, since they were necessary to keep the economy functioning.

But the SVO offers opportunities to weed the garden and promote meritocracy.

Labor Structural Shifts: That so-called “downturn” allows a shift in how GDP is apportioned. .

In 2022, corporate profits surged, but today’s economy features a higher share of labor compensation, which amounts to progressive redistribution empowering ordinary workers and offering improvements domestic income.

This has been accompanied by aggressive prosecution of corruption at all levels and in all areas.

Strategic Budget Consolidation

Conservative Risk Planning:The downward adjustments in growth forecasts are based on conservative assumptions, such as pricing baseline oil budgets at just $50–59 per barrel. – a fiscal restraint which safeguards state funds – and is not in any way a symptom of an organic economic “crisis”, as some Western analysts suggest.

Pivot to New Global Alliances

Geoeconomic Sovereignty:The slowdown as a foundation for long-term, sanctions-proof growth.

It also reflects Russia’s commitment to the BRICS alliance, with a focus on Africa, and Asia, insulating Russia to some degree from the effects of turmoil in Western markets.

Developmental goals Rather than rely on foreign capital as the US does, leveraging the dollar as a reserve currency to get corporations around the world to buy US treasuries nnd invest in Wall Street, the Russian state injects capital into civilian and domestic infrastructure, rather than dead-weight military consumption.

Military budgets are carefully structured to yield spinoff benefits for the rest of the economy in terms of new technologies—automation, AI, robotics, new materials.

Putting aside the military, the development of Russia’s industrial and infrastructural base is multi-faceted.

Multiple use logistics

Immense capital has been diverted to build the “International North–South Transport Corridor” (INSTC) and expand the Eastern Range (Baikal-Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway).

Long-term economic benefits: This represents a permanent pivot to Asia and the Middle East. While it temporarily cools liquid economic growth, it builds long-term commercial capacity.

Civilian / Military overlap: deep-water ports, and highways expansion will lower domestic business costs for decades, besides providing military supply.

De-centralization and Regional Development

Subsidizing the Hinterlands: Russia’s far-flung regional economies benefit from massive budget transfers away from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Industrial Reshoring: Funding regional factories, specialized economic zones, and local connectivity reduces regional inequality and stimulates domestic competition and growth.

Long-term balance: Short-term economic downturn is natural enough with the state forcibly shifting wealth from financial services to domestic manufacturing hubs, which temporarily reduces short-term output but builds a more balanced internal economy.

Human and Social Capital

Demographic Stabilization: Resources are being redirected to human and social capital and . These include education, multi-child family subsidies, low-interest mortgage programs, and veteran pension frameworks. The aim is reverse demographic decline and encourage productivity at the community level.

Labor Retention: Increasing funding for health, welfare, and education preserves and upgrade the domestic workforce, improving productivity, workplace creativity and innovation.

Technological Leadership and Import Substitution

National Projects The Russian state funds“Technological Leadership Projects” in fields like domestic IT, AI, new materials, digitaliztion, civil aviation, medicine, and precision engineering.

Long-Term ROI heavy capital expenditure hurts a nation’s wallet in the short term and GDP growth rates.However, it generates an immense return on investment (ROI) once the results begin to bear fruit, which often takes some time, as was the case with FDR’s development programs, whose benefits took more than a decade to be realized.

FDR was able to leverage WWII to achieve maximum results. Putin is leveraging the SVO and the hybrid war with the West.

That said, you will find that the MSM contradicts almost everything I have said. They continue to insist Russia is failing.

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Pressure

Below are the mailboxes for my apartment building.

Those with the brown tape are people who have been “persuaded” to leave — a somewhat passive aggressive reminder to those of us still there!

The pressure is mounting…. It will take time. Your support, particularly messages of encouragement mean a lot to me. Thank you!

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Trump apparently forgot Pearl Harbor.

If you have bought coffees before, you can read it. And all the Special Articles on my cloud servers. If you haven’t bought a coffee and want to read it, just buy a coffee.

Larry Does Economics

I like Larry Johnson’s shirts and his dogs. He has style. He also writes some good stuff but he, like all analysts, including me sometimes. gets things wrong.

His most recent article, Faced with a Global Financial and Economic Crisis, China Has Better Options than the US. I read this longer-than-usual article expecting some insights into China. I was disappointed. What I got could have come straight from from WaPo or the WSJ.

He does say with regard to Western criticisms of Chinese economic policies and its “severe problems:

However, he later adds:

This is a common “middle of the road” Western take on China, which you see a lot of in the media. China does NOT have “structural problems” as the US does, whatever “structural means”.

The four “problems” cited are not acute or severe; whatever Western propaganda says. They have mostly been resolved. In fact, they are just the growing pains of a society with a completely different orientation than that of the US and different priorities.

It is notable how China has leveraged all four problems to achieve greater progress.

A pity Larry doesn’t know much about China.

But he DOES know about the US, and his criticisms here are germane.

Don’t believe me?

Here are some arguments.

The Debt Crisis that wasn’t

China does not have a systemic debt crisis, despite what Western analysts say.

The structure and ownership of the debt make it manageable, even if the total volume is high.

Domestic Financing and Low External Debt

Almost all of China’s debt is denominated in its own currency and owed to domestic lenders. This avoids the classic “currency crisis” seen in other markets, where a falling local currency makes foreign-denominated debt impossible to repay.

State Control over Lenders and Borrowers:

The Chinese government owns or controls the major banks (creditors) and many of the largest indebted companies (state-owned enterprises or SOEs). This allows Beijing to order debt restructurings, extend maturities, and move liabilities across balance sheets to prevent a sudden systemic collapse.

Massive Public Assets:

Unlike many Western nations, the Chinese government holds vast productive assets—including land, major corporations, and infrastructure—that can be valued significantly higher than its liabilities.

Estimates suggest net government assets could be as high as $20 trillion to $40 trillion.

High Domestic Savings:

China’s debt is largely backed by its exceptionally high national savings rate. This deep pool of liquidity provides a buffer, as banks have stable deposits to fund ongoing lending and debt rollovers.

Proactive Debt Management

Recent policies, such as the $1.67 trillion debt swap program (2025), are evidence that Beijing is effectively reducing immediate repayment pressures on local governments by replacing high-interest “hidden debt” with lower-interest official bonds.

While inefficient debt might slow down long-term growth, a “Lehman-style” financial meltdown is unlikely due to the government’s total control over the financial system

Total household debt is less than total household deposits despite house price fluctuations .

China’s external debt is not a problem—only 14% of GDP in 2017.

The Property Crisis

There was a severe downturn, bu not a “systemic crisis” similar to the 2008 U.S. subprime crash thanks to structural differences and massive state intervention.

Substantial Home Equity Buffer:

Unlike the U.S. 2008 crisis, China has virtually no subprime mortgage lending. Homeowners typically provide large down payments (often 30% or more), creating a massive “equity cushion” that prevents widespread defaults even as prices fall.

Absence of Financial Contagion:

China’s real estate sector relies primarily on direct bank lending rather than the complex, opaque financial derivatives (like CDOs) that caused the Western banking collapse.

While developers have defaulted, the banking system has remained stable due to strict collateral requirements and mandated loan-loss reserves.

Massive State Backstop:

The government has launched aggressive “destocking” programs, including an estimated $1.1 trillion (RMB 8 trillion) in potential stimulus to help local governments buy unsold inventory and convert it into affordable housing, for millions of people.

Managed Structural Shift:

Some experts view the slump not as an uncontrolled collapse, but as a deliberate, government-led “detox” to move the economy away from property-led growth toward high-end manufacturing and AI.

Stabilization Signs:

Recent forecasts from groups like CBRE predict commercial real estate investment will grow by 5-10% in 2026. Other analysts, such as those from UBS, expect the property sector’s drag on GDP to narrow significantly to around 0.5% in 2026 compared to previous years.

Deflation

Consumer confidence in China has shown signs of a modest, steady recovery in 2026, though it remains cautious as people adjust to to mild inflation. from deflation.

Key trends include:

Rebound:

The China Consumer Confidence Index rose to 95.55 points in early 2026, signaling a consistent departure from 2024 lows.

Retail Growth:

Q1 2026 saw a 2.4% year-on-year rise in retail sales, representing a 0.7 percentage point acceleration from late 2025.

Service-Led Spending:

Consumers are shifting toward experiences, with tourism and travel setting records over the 2026 May Day holiday.

Divided Consumption:

While big-ticket purchases like cars dropped by 9.1%, spending on specialized categories like communications and jewelry showed strength.

Market Stabilization:

Analysts from BigOne Lab noted that the stabilization of prices at major restaurant chains indicates recovering confidence.

China is not facing a “deflationary spiral” . Recent price drops are temporary, driven by global shocks rather than a permanent domestic collapse.

Reflation as of May 2026,:

Data from May 11, 2026, shows that China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 2.8% in April, a 45-month high. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.2%, exceeding analyst expectations and moving further away from zero.

External Energy Shocks:

Much of the recent price increase is attributed to global energy disruptions, specifically the conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts from Capital Economics note these “cost-push” factors are effectively importing inflation, which counteracts domestic deflationary trends.

Higher Growth Potential:

Organizations like AMRO argue that unlike Japan in the 1990s, China’s growth potential remains high (around 4.5–5%). They suggest that robust GDP growth will naturally drive higher wages and demand, preventing prices from staying low indefinitely.

Policy Intervention Against “Involution”:

The government has actively campaigned against “involution”—extreme price wars among Chinese firms. By cutting excess industrial capacity and reducing export tax benefits for sectors with overcapacity, Beijing is attempting to floor prices and support profit margins.

“Low-Inflation” Maturity, Not a Trap:

Some analysts view current levels as a sign of a maturing economy rather than a crisis. Citigroup raised its 2026 CPI forecast to 1%, suggesting that while inflation is low, it is stabilizing into a manageable, positive range.

Demographic Issue

Automation and Productivity “Force Multiplier”:

Labor shortages caused by a shrinking workforce are incentivizing firms to accelerate investment in automation, robotics, and AI. Analysts from MDPI have found that a higher old-age dependency ratio actually correlates with increased labor productivity because it forces companies to become more capital-intensive.

The “Second Demographic Dividend”:

While the first dividend was based on a massive pool of cheap labor, the second is based on human capital quality. With fewer children to support, families and the state can concentrate resources more heavily on each individual’s education and health.

In 2020, over 50% of 20–24-year-olds in China had a college education, compared to just 3% in 1990.

Expansion of the Silver Economy

Increased longevity is creating a massive new market for high-value services, including specialized healthcare, elderly care technology, and smart homes. Some researchers argue that the “longevity economy” will drive demand in sectors that were previously underdeveloped in China.

Environmental and Resource Relief:

A smaller population is seen by environmental analysts as a way to ease the massive pressure on China’s natural resources and environment. This aligns with Beijing’s goal of “Ecological Civilization,” shifting from low-value, high-pollution manufacturing to a cleaner, tech-driven economy.

Rising Wages and Lower Unemployment:

A shrinking labor pool naturally pushes up wages and strengthens the bargaining power of workers. This can help transition China toward a consumption-led economy by increasing the disposable income of the remaining working population.

China has different priorities from Western societies — namely the primacy of collective welfare and happiness. The people own the country. The US is owned by one percent — parasitic billionaires. It is their welfare and happiness that matters.

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And WWIII continues…

Lebanon

This is a new Hezbollah.

Zionist strikes on Hezbollah’s political leadership, experience in the 2024 war, as well as the pager attack have created a new, leaner, meaner Hezbollah, decentralized on the Iranian model, adaptive, and also adapting the lessons of asymmetric warfare learned from the SMO in Ukraine.

This has meant:

• smaller, more flexible fighting units

• command and supply lines rebuilt \under fire

• adaptive strike -and-reconnaissance tactics

• exploitation of Israel’s strategic mistakes and faulty planning.

Israel and the US have highly hierarchical militaries, commanded top-down, framing conflicts with inherited orthodoxies.

By contrast, both Iran and Hezbollah have heterarchical structures, which are highly adaptive and creative, with strategy, bottom up, evolving dynamically with the situation. Their tactical policy epitomizes John Boyd’s OODA loop.

There is also the matter of logistics. The US and Israel are running out of resources to sustain a long-term war. Hezbollah has accumulated a huge stockpile of the weapons it needs.

Hezbollah is no longer just targeting IDF forces in Lebanon but striking at high value targets such as the Iron Dome site, located at the IDF’s Jal al-Alam site in northern Israel, which was targeted twice, on May 7 and 8.

The first drone strike hit a fully loaded launcher, while the second targeted Israeli troops removing the launcher. The launcher was hidden behind fortified cement blocks, but still found and targeted.

They is situational awareness.

Russia

Victory Day came and went, with Zelensky graciously not attacking the parade, limiting himself to over 16,999ceasefire violations elsewhere. The thousands of people who fled Kiev fearing the worst are going home.

What did the Victory Day Speech say.?

As for Putin’s Victory Day Speech itself which expressed a commitment to a long-term, large-scale, multi-faceted confrontation, with all those setting themselves up as enemies.

Main Points

• Now, Russia is opposing not only Ukraine but all of NATO, which is a co-belligerent.

• This requires national mobilization of the kind FDR envisaged for the US before Pearl Harbor —not just military—but the whole of Russian society—industry, science, volunteer organizations, education, business—everyone.

• The civilizational values that led to victory the Great Patriotic War, have taken on new life as the moral basis for Russian society and the Russian state.

• Quick resolution is unlikely. It will be a long war with economic restructuring, and sustained state pressure.

Those affected are:

• The Russian people: the war will be long, sacrifices will have to be made, but as with the Great Patriotic war victory is inevitable.

• Elites in Russia and the West: a return to the past will no longer be possible

Russia will not capitulate. It’s ultimate goal iHs civilizational rebirth.

Putin Presser

Putin answered questions from the Press –as usual, unscripted, articulate and honest — as ever, remarkably consistent. Here are some excerpts.

In other words, the security zone must extend to Ukraine’s borders with Poland and other countries, meaning that Ukraine, as it now calls itself would effectively cease to exist.

This is also what Medvedev has been saying for a long time .

“They are playing for the upper hand, but judging by what has just been said, they are already seeking contacts with us”. Who are “they”? Ukraine or Europe? Right now it is Europe that appears to be seeking contacts with Russia, following the lead of the US and not wanting to be left out. . As Putin says Europe can not gain the “upper hand”, especially with Ukraine failing. They will destroy the economy trying.

Olga Volkova: Olga Volkova, RIA Novosti.

As Machiavelli pointed out, “it is safer to be feared than loved".” Military power confers respect. Also, economic power.

What does he mean by “revanchism”? For Germany, this was defeat in WWII. For the UK and France ti is was the loss of their empires after 1945, which they blamed on Soviet support for independence movements. “Revanchism” is a kind of national resentment, sometimes more scapegoating than anything else.

“Even now, not everyone speaks to Europe in that manner. “ He is talking about the US, of course /

The message is simple. If Europe doesn’t listen, it will suffer Ditto: the US.

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This post features a long essay by Giroux, which supplements what I write about below.

The scandal of scandals

Last time, I wrote about the Epstein Scandal.

My main point, which some people apparently missed was that this scandal exploited public prurience as a distraction, shifting focus and attention. Since I am on the autism spectrum, I know a lot about such things.

How Sexual Scandals Are Used in Politics

Strategic Distraction (The “Dead Cat” Strategy):

Scandals are often used to distract the public and media from more damaging issues, such as corruption or policy failure.

A sensational, personal scandal can dominate news cycles, forcing politicians to spend time responding rather than attacking policy.

Weaponization of Morality:

Political parties, often weaponize scandals to question the moral authority of their opponents, which can trigger public outrage and demand accountability.

“Image Building”:

Wannabe leaders may use accusations of sexual misconduct to paint themselves as anti-establishment figures who are attacked by a corrupt media. In these cases, scandals can increase support among voters who distrust mainstream institutions or lean towards conspiracist theories.

Partisan Shielding:

Partisan bias shields politicians.

Sexual scandals are dismissed as fake news or politically motivated attacks on the one hand, or held up as the “tip of the iceberg. In either case, the result is a polarized reality where evidence and facts are irrelevant.

Normalization of Corruption:

Constant exposure to a scandal may lead to apathy among the public, desensisizing voters and effectively normalizing corruption. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8] (Thanks to Google’s AI)

The last point, “normalization” is particularly important.

The US is a profoundly corrupt society and always has been, built on exploitation and theft. We all know the stories. But it’s somehow the American “normal”.

True North on America’s ethnical compass points to Greed not Goodness, so who is really surprised when shit happens..

The US has been at war most of its existence, mostly stealing other people’s land.

Wounded Knee

At the end of WWII, the US became the world’s technological leader. But scientific progress without ethical progress and justice comes with many risks.

Power indeed corrupts. No one wants to think of consequences.

Communities fall part, each person marooned on his or her own island. Values are not shared.They become just smoke signals.

We can blame all this on our leaders –the - the Few - the elites, the billionaire class, but ultimately it is we the people— the Many— who define national values—or not- mostly not. We have no honor.

When power dominates values, honor is for the dead.

For example, like most societies, the US has days when everything stops to “honor” “patriots”, like the 9/11 victims or war dead.

“Stops” but not too long, of course – that would be inconvenient. Just enough time for a photo-op and a game of golf.

Do his bone spurs hurt?

Observing these moments of “remembrance” is ritual.

Right now, the US, as the world’s Greatest Terrorist, is murdering thousands of people, men, women and children in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza , directly or using its proxy Israel.

Remembering 9/11 and First Responders in this way, transforming their sacrifice into a vehicle for jingoism, if not genocide, insults their memory.

But what can you do?

If the US were a really moral country, people would use the power of community —schools and universities, villages and towns and cities and houses of worship would be holding moments of remembrance —to mourn the innocents who died for our sins,

Silence speaks loudest. They say that in Zen — and in every other culture.

Stop the country for just a moment. And perhaps remember what we once wanted to be. Remember compassion and empathy— the message of all the great religions.

Imagine: what if half the population of the US, say 150 million people, all stopped what they were doing at a designated time for one minutes to think on the dead children of Iran or Gaza or Lebanon and say to themselves, “Not in our Name:”

It’s not “not in MY name” because it’s US — a nation, people together.

.Jesus said, “Forgive them Rather for they know not what they do” Luke23:24

The US does know what it does.

So all the more reason to pray for forgiveness

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Something a little different, for my neuroatypical subscribers.

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.

How many millions of hours have journalists spent writing about this scandal, hardly the first such scandal in American history, and in no way that exceptional.

Rich people exploiting poor people! Quelle surprise!.

Rich people having sex with sexy young hookers. Who woulda thought?

The Epstein scandal was not special in any way, however sordid. And nowadays it is getting old —so now we have moved on — the media is obsessing about UFOs.

UFOs are trendy-- Netflix and Prime are SciFi all the time these days.

But Epstein is boring although still – better than talking about murdering kids and their moms and dads in Gaza and Iran and Lebanon, about which the US of A is somehow “morally ambivalent”.

In the early days of Epstein Hysteria, “pedophilia ”is real click bait.

Except of course Epstein is not a pedophile-- at least not more than the average American male who lusts after nubile women.

Age-gaps? Exploitation?

How about Sally Hemings– likely the half-sister of Jefferson’s late wife, Martha Wayles Jefferson who went with Jefferson to Paris in 1787 when she was about 14 years old. She didn’t have a lot of choice in her relationship since she was a slave. She died a slave too.

JFK was famous for sex orgies and group sex although none of the women used were teenagers—the youngest being 19; Mimi Alford, who he shred with brother Ted and an aid. .

Politicians have their kinks - as do a lot of other famous people.

Some examples:

Elvis Presley: Met Priscilla Beaulieu when she was 14 and he was 24. They eventually married years later, but the age gap at the start of their acquaintance remains a point of historical discussion.

Jerry Lee Lewis: Experienced a significant career decline in the 1950s after it was revealed he had married his 13-year-old cousin.

Jerry Seinfeld: In the early 1990s, the comedian attracted media attention for dating a 17-year-old high school student while he was in his late 30s.

Steven Tyler: The musician was involved in a relationship with a 16-year-old in the 1970s, a situation that involved him obtaining legal guardianship to facilitate the arrangement.

It’s a long list.

I don’t criticize. I would be jealous except I have Chappy and Ichi.

And let us keep in mind the difference between these people and Jeffrey Epstein.

The primary difference is that all of these people made significant contributions to public life in one way or another.

Epstein was just a pimp for the rich and famous, as well as probably a Mossad operative. Epstein’s girls all came from troubled backgrounds .

None of his girls were “children rather they were young adults, mostly but not actually below the statutory age of consent which varies between 16 and 18, which in the US states where they were most active. His most famous accusers, such as Virginia Giuffre were already sexually active and some (including her) had already been involved in prostitution. Giuffree said she needed money for college and receiving large sums of money for her work she never went on to higher education.

One can argue two ways with people like this. Are they just vulnerable? Or have they learned the ropes from hard experience .

That, however, is not the point in this sordid story— which is this is nothing new in morally decadent Anglo-American culture. .

The real question now that some of the smoke has cleared is how this aberration became so important in American political discussion — why the media has focused on it to the exclusion of more important and morally significant events in which which a lot of innocent people died— abroad and also at home.

Epstein’s girls were paid well.

How many people have the Zionists raped and sexually abused and tortured and mutilated, their lives ruined forever?

A lot of the Epstein story is conjecture and speculation. We just don’t know.

Zionist crimes are well documented. WE DO KNOW.

There are congressional investigations into the whole Epstein business.

But none into Zionist sexual crimes – although the House of Representatives passed H.Res.966 with near-unanimous bipartisan support to condemn the “rape and sexual violence” committed by Hamas during and after the October 7 attacks, based on unproven allegations by Israeli propagandists.

Somehow this reminds me of Russiagate, which turned out to be ultimately false and in which I commented on at the time saying that it distracted from the real issues of Trump’s sure to be catastrophic presidency.

It is media distraction. But the fault is us.

Every writer who goes on about Epstein and pedophilia is complicit. Is Trump a pervert? Probably. Just like a significant number of powerful people in the US since the 18th Century.

Hold him accountable please. But for real crimes .

First, America must hold America accountable.

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Today’s article for Coffee Buyers. Richard Dawkins thinks ChatBots are conscious.

To “fudge” means to intentionally alter, falsify, or present data inaccurately—such as tampering with figures or omitting key facts—to make results appear better than they are or to avoid a direct, honest answer. It is a form of cheating or misrepresentation.

CENTCOM Protects U.S. Warships Transiting Strait of Hormuz

Really? The Iranian account is different.

Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

There seems to be a difference of opinion. If the Iranian story is to believed the 3 Aegis destroyers were not exactly sightseeing in Hormuz, they were carrying out military operations against tankers, backed up by aerial assets, launching air strikes. Of course, Qesm Island, Bandar Khamir, Sirik are not only “civilian” sites, they are fortified sites for launching missiles and drones .

It would seem that the US Navy was testing the boundaries, carrying out SEAD strikes as per American military doctrine before exposing its three Aegis destroyers tasked with intercepting Iranian tankers. Or perhaps the tankers were just an excuse, with the real targets Iranian defenses along the strait.

For example, Donald Gorbachev writes:

I am not sure about this analysis. One needs to add detail.

First of all, the destroyers were initially two, with a third added later, and opposed by fast boats which the US countered with aerial assets.

The operation was conducted in two primary phases within the Strait of Hormuz as our old friend Google’s AI says with appropriate reference..

Hubris?

The US Navy should have known by now that its ships would run out of ammunition in the face of dedicated swarm attacks, in this case missiles, drones and fast boats as I described yesterday. Did the Americans think that sinking a few fast boats would frighten the Iranians? And CIWS magazines are empty in just 20 seconds.

May 7, the Iranians upped the ant. Gorbachev is correct. Once a vessel is reduced to CIWS, it’s in trouble. This is the point at which the destroyers fired off Tomahawks which could not, however, hurt Iranian launch sites which are mostly underground but I am sure they hoped would keep the Iranians busy. Each Tomahawk costs about $4 million. Aegis destroyers have 96 launch tubes, so carrying offensive missiles reduces the number of defensive missiles, a vulnerability under swarm attack.

Some reports suggest that the ships were damaged. CENTCOM says no but that denial is meaningless given who it comes from. These are the people who said the Iranians attacked them for no reason at all.

However, is also possible that IRGC fast boat crews would have seen explosions close to the ships due to CIWS fire and assumed a hit when in fact it was an “almost hit”. Or…. the ships may have been hit but not fatally.

We won’t know for a long time.

While I am not entirely sure of Gorbachev’s analysis, he is one to pay attention to.

One battle. Two press releases.Not much is clear except for American defeat at sea, dressed up as an exchange of fire.

This incident is, among other things, why it is important to look at the media skeptically . By media I don’t must mean the MSM, but Alt Media and also forums like X and its ilk. Inevitably we must assess probabilities.

Love comes naturally

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Last night, in an article for coffee buyers I wrote about Iran’s contribution to the new field of asymmetric warfare and Russia’s learning curve. Russia started behind that curve, as far as drones were concerned, and Iran helped .

Now, it is a drone power-house— which Europe and the UK should consider. Russia has the means to win a war with NATO without having to turn Europe into a radioactive wasteland.

Long-Range Strike (OWA-UAVs):

• Geran-2 (Shahed-136): The primary long-range, low-cost “kamikaze” drone, with AI-enabled versions and jet-powered variants (Geran-4/5) being deployed.

• Geran-1 (Shahed-131): Smaller version of the Geran-2 used for tactical strikes.

• Gerbera: A newer, cheaper, and slightly faster variant often used for reconnaissance or to serve as a decoy to exhaust Ukrainian air defense.

• Italmas (BM-35): A long-range strike drone often used in mixed, multi-type strike packages.

• Garpiya-A1: A long-range, strike drone produced in Russia.

Tactical Reconnaissance/Surveillance:

• Orlan-10: The workhorse for tactical surveillance and target acquisition.

• Supercam: Used for battlefield reconnaissance.

• Merlin-VR: A reconnaissance drone.

• ZALA 421 Series: Various models (421-08, 421-16) for battlefield intelligence.

• Shtorm: A newer reconnaissance UAV designed to be difficult to detect.

Loitering Munitions (Kamikaze):

• Lancet: Highly effective, AI-capable loitering munition used for precision strikes on high-value targets (artillery, armor).

• Kub-BLA: A smaller loitering munition.

• Bolt: A new, automated interceptor drone designed for the “Ploshchad-PVO” air defense network to shoot down other drones.

Specialized/Experimental:

• Fiber-Optic FPVs: A growing category that transmits signals via cable, making them immune to electronic jamming.

• Armed Geran-2/4: Late-model Gerans equipped with R-60 air-to-air missiles to attack aircraft.

Quantities and Production Capacity (2026)

• Russia has heavily invested in domestic production and is, as of 2026, surpassing its initial 2025 targets, with plans to produce 7 million FPV drones in 2026.

• Massive Production Scale: By 2026, Russia has moved from importing to a high-capacity producer, with reports of over 100,000 personnel in dedicated unmanned units.

• Daily Launch Rates: In March 2026, Russia launched an average of over 200 drones per day. In April 2026, 6,583 Shahed/Geran strike UAVs were launched, exceeding 4,000+ daily production estimates by late 2025.

• Specific Model Output: As of early 2026, Russia was producing an estimated 404 Shahed-type drones daily (roughly 12,000 per month) and aimed to surge toward 1,000 units per day

Recent Technological Shifts

• Fiber-Optic Drones: To counter electronic warfare (EW), Russia has begun mass-deploying FPV drones controlled via fiber-optic cables, making them immune to signal jamming.

• Jet-Powered Variants: New models like the Geran-3 (Shahed-238) use jet engines for higher speeds, though they are currently produced in smaller quantities than propeller-driven models.

• AI & Autonomy: Experimental units like the Rubicon unit are testing fully autonomous swarms and AI-controlled navigation to bypass jamming completely

It is also the world-leader in anti-drone defense systems.

Russia’s drone arsenal has evolved into a massive, multi-tiered fleet characterized by rapid domestic production no longer dependent on Iranian technology.

As of May 2026, Russia operates dozens of specialized military drone types and has scaled production into the millions.

Total Fleet & Production Scale

• Total Inventory: While exact stockpiles fluctuate daily due to combat use, Russia produced approximately 1.4 million drones in 2024 and aimed to increase this to 1.8–2 million by 2025/2026.

• Daily Production Rate: Estimates suggest Russia can produce nearly 4,000 drones daily across all categories, including roughly 170–500 Shahed-type strike drones every 24 hours.

Recent Technological Shifts

• Fiber-Optic Drones: To counter electronic warfare (EW), Russia has begun mass-deploying FPV drones controlled via fiber-optic cables, making them immune to signal jamming.

• Jet-Powered Variants: New models like the Geran-3 (Shahed-238) use jet engines for higher speeds, though they are currently produced in smaller quantities than propeller-driven models.

• AI & Autonomy: Experimental units like the Rubicon unit are testing fully autonomous swarms and AI-controlled navigation to bypass jamming completely.

As of May 2026, Russia’s anti-drone strategy has shifted from relying on traditional air defenses to a multi-layered “electronic dome” approach, combining high-end missile systems with thousands of small-scale jammers and interceptor drones.

.Strategic and Point Air Defense

• Pantsir-S1/SM: The “backbone” of drone defense. To counter drone swarms, newer variants like the Pantsir-SMD-E can carry up to 48 mini-missiles instead of the standard 12, specifically to avoid wasting expensive full-sized missiles on cheap drones.

• Tor-M2: Recently upgraded with 360-degree jamming modules to disrupt FPV drones within a 500-meter radius while still tracking larger targets.

• Krona: A newer short-range system currently entering service, designed as a dedicated networked “sensor-to-shooter” solution for low-altitude threats.

Electronic Warfare (EW) Systems

• Mobile Jammers (SERP-FPV): Introduced in May 2026, these vehicle-mounted units provide immediate 360-degree protection for moving armored columns against FPV attacks.

• Area Denial (Krasukha & Repellent-1): Large truck-mounted systems that can suppress drone control and GPS signals over 30–35 km.

• Trench-Level Defense (Volnorez & Rubezh): Thousands of “portable domes” have been distributed to infantry units. These create localized interference bubbles to protect individual tanks or trenches from FPV “kamikaze” drones.

Dedicated Interceptors & Exotic Weapons

Russia has begun deploying “drone vs. drone” technologies to preserve expensive missile stockpiles.

• Yolka Interceptor: An AI-driven, “fire-and-forget” drone that uses kinetic impact (ramming) to down enemy UAVs. It was officially deployed in May 2025.

• Stribog “Mothership”: A concept recently showcased that carries multiple smaller interceptor drones or net-deploying units to engage swarms.

• Laser Systems (Posokh/Peresvet): Russia officially claimed the deployment of laser weapons for attacks on satellites and also drones.

Russia continues to cooperate with Iran in this area and is learning a great deal from Iran’s war with the US, which it can apply to its own situation.

One developing area is asymmetric naval warfare. For example, Russian commentators have been suggesting Russia copy Iran’s use of small boats or catamarans to police Hormuz.

However, the Baltics and Black Sea offer different challenges. Iran’s small boat strategy involves swarms of manned boats, many of whose crews are willing to become martyrs -- but Russia wants to reduce casualties to a minimum.

Iran’s strategy envisages conflict with conventional naval forces, specifically US carriers and destroyers.

In the Black Sea, Russia must cope with Ukrainian aerial drones and missiles aswell as a variety of naval drones.

In the Baltics, there is no real confrontation — only the threat of it, should there be a war—in which case it would be NATO destroyers and submarines which would likely be taken out from the air, as was the case with Iran’s Souleimani Corvettes.

So Russia must approach the challenges from a different perspective, paying attention to the Iranian experience..

It itself is increasingly using naval drones. but with drones, missiles – and heavily armed corvettes .

Fast boats might seem like an advantage because of their speed but they are short on range and usually used in swarms.

As far as military technologies are concerned, context is important. Adaptability and innovation are primary. And cost is a consideration. The US is used to debt financing to pay for the excesses of military imagination.

Russia aims at doing more with less.

The MSM insists that the Russian economy will collapse because of excessive military spending — but that is projection — Russian military technology is not as profligate as its American counterpart.

The price quoted for the Su35 is a maximized figure— usually just over 50 to 60 million —making t the cheapest on the chart. million . One must also consider the maintenance needed to keep the F35 flying. Even with this, operational availability is less than 50%

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The Russians learned a lot about drones from Iran, adapting them to their own needs. Now, they are looking at asymmetric warfare in littoral waters and small seas like the Black Sea and Baltics. Not just drones but small, superfast missile boats, a tiny fraction of the cost of a destroyer. A Russian article for followers.

Trumpamania

Well, it seems I was right when I said that Bernhard and Larry were hasty to assume that Trump would attack Iran.

This video clip is typical MSM.

“Trump says the US will no longer escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz”, says the CBS AirHead.

Except that the US Navy did NOT escort ships through the strait – it was afraid to enter. Oh well, who cares about details!

And, of course, there is NO indication that the US is EVER going to give into Iran’s demands, give up its bases in the Middle East and stop support for Israel, much less admit to an unprovoked war of aggression over Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, any of the now famous 10 points.

Just for the record here are the US’s “15 points”.

LOL…. Like I said, Comedy Hour. /?

The fact of the matter is that Iran has been preparing for a long war, with time out to rebuild its arsenal, and develop new weapons while Trump does hopscotch foreign policy. Why not? The country has been under attack for over 40 years and millions have died. What’s another year or two?

However, the world is getting bored by Trump’s antics, which are repetitive. and every time they try to switch the channel, it’s Trump, Trump, Trump All The Time, the most unfunny Comedy Show in history.

In a couple of weeks, we should see a massive oil shock. VERY un-funny.

No, shale gas is not going to save the world.

Nor Venezuelan oil, which won’t really come on line for years.

Israel

In the meantime, Israel is expanding its strikes against Hezbollah all over Lebanon in desperation – it simply doesn’t know where Hezbollah forces are and Lebanese villages and towns are such easy targets.

The Israelis think that punishing Lebanese Sunnis and Christians for sheltering Shi-ite forces when they are not, is good reason to kill women and children indiscriminately, will build support for Israel and alienate the Lebanese from Hezbollah, which has been Lebanon’s only protector\, delivering welfare and services that the Quisling government in Beirut will not.

The MSM and NSAM had been insisting Hezbollah was a spent force with the murders of political leaders but its military remained intact, decentralized on the Iranian model -and it used the “ceasefire-that-wasn’t” to stockpile weapons and prepare for what they knew was to come. I got a lot of flak for those opinions back when. But now it is clear that t

he Shi’a are stronger than they were before—as I said they would be.

US support for Israel will end eventually – when Iran and its allies destroy the “Zionist entity”. and there is no Israel to support. Israel deserves to die.

Home is where they heart is. So, send the Zionazis home – to the US of A.

Russia

Yesterday, I posted about the Kremlin’s warning to Ukraine that it would destroy “decision-making centers” if Kiev launched drones at Moscow during the May 9 anniversary or Russian Victory in WWII.

At that time, I suggested that Zelensky would resond and attempt some kind of provocation to

• Prove he isn’t weak

• Get the Russians to attack with overwhelming force

• Persuade the Europeans to come to his rescue.

• Get the attention of the MSM

So…

Several hours before the “ceasefire” was announced, Zelenskyy noted that Ukraine “does not need a ceasefire; we have no holidays.” Which I guess is why he violated his own ceasefire!

Attacks on civilians, by the way, are war crimes.

Zelenskyy declared a “ceasefire” on Wednesday to gain a “pretext” for ending his “truce” and violating the ceasefire of May 8 and 9.

This is foolishness. But the MSM bought into, of course. He got it seemed universal support on Google.

Russia can destroy institutional centers in the center of Kiev, with damage probably to foreign centers there. There are about 160,000 out of Kiev’s 3 million resident’s living in the government district. so civilian casualties will be unavoidable. Hence the warning.

The Ukrainians don’t give warnings>

Will the Europeans come to the CokeHead’s rescue? I doubt it. It’s warning to them, too.

For the Russians, this will give them an opportunity to start the Summer Offensive with a bang. Literally.

The Duma’s proposal to re-categorize the SMO as a “war on terror” will likely become law.

After that, there won’t be much to talk about since you don’t negotiate with terrorists, do you?

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An attack on Moscow on May 9 is a red line that Zelensky would be foolish to cross. On the other hand…..

NSAM trumpeting war

In my disappointment with the NSAM (Not So Alternative Media), which is now predicting another US attack on Iran and other dire events, I find solace in some writers outside the pale. Or is it “pail’ ? “Pale” comes from the Latin for “fence” I believe.

“Pail” — that’s a container for shit.

I am not sure this post below is original with Safa but I like it anyway.

This is a war of contradictions (as I keep on bleating ad nauseum). At this point,nobody knows what is happening, except that whatever the US says is happening, isn’t. I am surprised that many analysts keep on quoting CENTCOM as though it was something more than a military dog & pony show .

Here’s Moon of Alabama:

Was it one ship? Or two? A destroyer or just a patrol boat. Two missiles? Or drones, rockets, and missiles? Umm… a dog? Or a pony?

How does B.know this? Was Trump trying to change” something and not just the military testing the boundaries? We jump from an incident of really little importance to major strategic decisions, which B elaborates on.

Or maybe a fourth choice: fart in the wind.

Here’s the deal.

So far, Trump has been following a script given to every President on taking office. It’s like a Gideon Bible in a hotel room where you are having hot sex with a hooker. Not much read — but it’s there! Yeah, you kinda know what’s in it.

Of course, Trump famously doesn’t read much.

OK. That’s a crappy metaphor. But you get the idea I think.

Maybe Trump will try another attack. I suspect the Iranians are hoping he does! They have been preparing.

Commonsense

My favorite analyst Will Schryver writes :

It Ain’t Over Yet From what I have been able to piece together so far, the US Navy boldly ordered a pair of patrol boats to cross the yellow line (see image below) and penetrate the Gulf of Oman as far as they could until they drew Iranian fire.

That happened somewhere near the red line, at which point the boats promptly skedaddled back to the fleet, most of which is cowering in the northern Arabian Sea.

Now, I don’t entirely dismiss the possibility, but I seriously doubt they sent destroyers, and that’s why the Iranians pulled their punch, and just fired a couple “shots across the bow”, as it were. That’s all it took.

You have to understand that there can be no reasonable doubt that the Iranians tracked these boats all the way up the Gulf of Oman. From their mountains near the coast they can look down upon the entire Strait of Hormuz along a 270 degree perimeter.

Of course they can see everything.

And so the mighty US Navy called back its little boats, and let the fantasy writers in Washington craft a tale of US-flagged cargo ships being safely escorted through the strait, and a half-dozen Iranian fast boats “blown up”, and, in sum, one of the greatest naval operations in human history ... or so the story goes.

But I doubt this thin yarn will endure for long.

Because, as everybody knows, history is written by the winners.

And, as I first wrote back on March 4th: No matter what happens going forward, or how the narrative is spun, Iran has achieved decisive strategic victory, and history will identify this conflict as a catalyst for accelerated decline of the American empire.

There will be no going back to the status quo ante.

Few can see this now, but it will become clear in time. Of course, this doesn’t mean the US is ready to yield the battlefield. The idea of slinking away humiliated will gnaw at them, and they will try to do something that results in them having a more emphatic “last word” in this war.

They have another Amphibious Ready Group (USS Boxer) that will soon arrive in the theater, pushing their potential invasion force closer to 10k. So there is that to consider.

And, lurking quietly in the background, whatever “Hail Moses” play the Israelis have been scheming hasn’t yet come down from the mountain. The annals of this war are not yet completed.

Here’s the thing. The Winners do write the History —which takes years and nobody reads it. The Losers write the News, which is today. People read it over breakfast and forget it by dinner time.

If you read the NSAM, Larry Johnson and his “friends” think it’s this week.

Trump really does have a problem of intellectual flatulence…. Don’t light a match when he’s talking.

Hezbollah has been punishing Israel, which is running short on weapons and ammunition. The US will supply its needs, of course. But that will take time.

Can I get the US to buy me a coffee?

Israel of course is desperate to attack Iran itse but would be foolish to try right now. Anyway, it has its hands full with rape and murder.

Iran is destroying UAE infrastructure partly in response to the Emirates leaving OPEC and also because it has betrayed Islamic values as a proxy for Israel and the US.

Isn’t that Bibi’s left hand, “unclean” in the middle east.

Notice the headline below, which implies that UAE is part of an American axis.

The attacks did a lot of damage.

The message is clear. Iran is telling Trump the war is over when we say it’s over.

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And nobody knows what happened! When the news is speculation and titillation. …

Madness or Method?

Is have been writing a lot about Trump’s delusional logic.

Trump is not crazy — but this logic is.

At the same time, while Trump has supreme“agency”, he’s not the only one in the room when decisions are made. His ever changing narratives don’t come out of thin air. As with schizophrenics, he has delusional ‘themes’ or templates ,derived from institutional culture, which some people call “the Deep State”.

Very few “analysts” have figured this out.

The NSAM

The NSAM (Not so Alternate Media) certainly hasn’t given it much consideration.

Except maybe for Brian Berletic, who is not an NSAM person.

In any case, NSAM has responded excitedly to its genitor — the MSM — which loudy …um.. ‘trumpets’ Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom.” which will guarantee freedom of navigation in the Hormuz Strait, thanks to a buildup of forces with one aircraft carrier actually leaving the area. Sorry- I am bad at arithmetic ….

But….

‘Project Freedom will not include escorts by US warships through the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a coordinated effort by shipping and insurance companies’

OK… So, insurance companies are fighting for “freedom?LOL.

Dunno… I will ask Chappy to explain it to me.

WTF?

Yes, it’s a WTF moment.

Trump has sidestepped the War Powers Act insisting:

• This was never a war but s military operation.

• Anyway, it’s over.

Then saying, since it’s all finished, wrapped up …done - we can start again soon for another 60 days.

In a sense, the Don is correct of course : this is not a “war”, at least not as the War Powers Act defines the term, looking back at WWI and WWII which were “full-scale” military wars, with boots on the ground, and whole populations fighting. They were unambiguously “wars”.

“Our boys against theirs.” “Our girls too.”

In those days, boys would be boys and girls would be girls…..

After WWII there were “wars” of a different kind. And boys eventually cold be girls and vice versa. Or you could be both, which poses problems for people creating posters.

In simpler times, wars were based on existential threat, like persuading the Japanese to scrap some old battleships for you.

After that came the Korean War.

But the Koreans did not threaten the US or its allies. They were commies.

North Vietnam? Also commies

I am not too sure what commies are — I will ask Chappy.

Fearful of publicly funded health care, the US orchestrated military actions –but it didn’t just send in its own troops, it got its allies, including locals—proxies—to help.

The trend was accelerated by Vietnam. US forces were involved — but no one wanted to die in a foreign country for an imperial glory that had nothing to do with their ideals – freedom, self-determination and the sex, which had just been re-discovered. A lot of Yanks fled to Canada, which did have public healthcare/

The US eventually fled Vietnam. After that it couldn’t just conscript people to kill for it. Soldiering became just another job, lousy pay but some benefits, and people say “thank you for your service” as they drop dimes and quarters in your hat .

So the “professional soldiers’, post-Vietnam were proxies for the rest of us.

American politicians feared blowback from casualties. It had lost only 58,220 men in Vietnam over more than a decade of war compared to the millions of South East Asians who died but that still resulted in “Vietnam Syndrome”.

So, “war” was not as it was in 1941.

On the other hand, ‘World War” between major powers had become unthinkable thanks to MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), so the whole idea of “war”, especially “World War” had to be revised. Not that that non-military war was a new idea. Clausewitz had said that force of arms was just one option.

Sun Tzu said.

That was a bitter pill for MICIMATT, which I guess included Hollywood. It,needed the strongest, biggest, baddest, most technologically advanced, most expensive, if arguably most ineffective military as an economic and political necessity for national cohesion and control. The US had been at war almost continuously since its founding, except for 22 years — as one nation under God, chosen by God, presumably the God of War, or maybe just Mammon.

However, American wars have mostly been against weaker adversaries, not peers.

And, after the 19th Century, the US usually had the help of allies, or used proxies

After Vietnam it seemed that wars were inevitably PR exercises – scripted—and were fought largely with air power or proxies, without the need for boots on the ground , usually against much weaker adversaries. The war on Serbia, for example. Or think of Grenada or Panama.

The war against Saddam Hussein and against the Taliban were revenge for 9/11 which they had nothing to do with. Didn’t matter since American wars are broadly defined as Good vs Evil played up by the media. A little poet license is OK.

Obama’s wars in Georgia, Libya, and Syria and against “terrorism” in Yemen were justified with similar invocations of media artifice.

That did not mean that “World Wars” — that is globalized conflicts— were out of fashion. In the 20^th century the weapons were economic, informational, and terrorist, carried out by various kinds of proxies .

That did not always work out . The US attempted to destabilize Russia using economic suasion, propaganda and included Chechen terrorists as proxies, which led to perhaps a million unnecessary deaths. It was a mistake because while the US was successful in their attempt to destabilize the government of Russia under Yeltsin and his “Family” , it brought to power one Vladimir Putin who was not what anyone expected.

Let’s just say that the US, like any career criminal has a history. And a certain mindset. s

Brian Berletic and the Fourth Reich

This brings us to Brian Berletic’s most recent article on the US’s use of economic warfare to dominate the world.

The 2019 RAND Corporation paper titled “Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground,” a number of “economic” and “geopolitical” measures were laid out, designed to “extend” Russia and possibly precipitate a Soviet Union-style collapse like that which ended the Cold War.

Under “economic measures,” the paper lists “hinder petroleum exports,” “reduce natural gas exports and hinder pipeline expansions,” “impose sanctions,” and “enhance Russian brain drain.”The paper first argues that one of the main methods of implementing these measures is to expand US oil and gas production and its export to Europe.A 2018 Naval War College Review paper titled, “A Maritime Oil Blockade Against China – Tactically Tempting but Strategically Flawed” would list the obstacles facing such a policy and various means to overcome them.

It focused on not only cutting off maritime shipping to China at chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in what it called a “distant blockade” (a blockade imposed beyond the reach of most of China’s military capabilities), it also discussed severing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects built specifically to enable China to circumvent these chokepoints.At one point in the paper, it discusses the Myanmar-China oil pipeline, which allows China to offload Middle East energy at port facilities on Myanmar’s coast and pipe the energy across Myanmar directly into China’s southern Yunnan Province. Asian states like Pakistan, Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea get anywhere between 50% to 90% of their total imported energy from the Middle East, according to Western publications like Politico.China receives up to 50% of its imported energy from the Middle East. Its island province of Taiwan gets over 60% of its imported energy from the Middle East.. With production and exports disrupted by yet another US-provoked war, Asian states — instead of Europe — have now been forced to look elsewhere to meet their energy needs.

But just as the RAND Corporation made clear back in 2019, any policy proposal like decoupling Europe from Russian energy that doesn’t work during “peacetime,” can be made to work by simply taking “peacetime” and transforming it into “wartime.”

That is what the US did to Europe — it is now clearly repeating this process, targeting Asia. The US has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to sidestep its growing military weakness relative to the rest of the world and leverage its political capture of nations around the globe, its monopoly over global information space, and now its growing weaponization of energy.The US is weaponizing energy both through the production and export of energy from the US and by carrying out a systematic attack on and seizure or destruction of alternative energy sources in Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, among others.Only time will tell if the multipolar world can adequately organize itself not just in the domain of military power but also in all other domains the US is waging war against them in.

As I have indicated, none of this is really new.

It is also going to backfire in the long term.

I have italicized the important parts of Brian’s argument. The US is hardly a spent force and it has not been defeated in its ongoing war on the world but with each day it’s chance of winning grows less and less.

Its “political capture” is incomplete in almost every case, as is its control of “information space”— and, of course, the “weaponization of energy”. Even it’s apparent victory over Venezuela seems Pyrrhic since the Chavistas still own the oil but the US is funding rebuilding the country’s petrochemical infrastructure .

US policy has been consistent since 1945 emphasizing world domination, assuming the mantle of the Fourth Reich, with the same major weakness of the previous Reich, delusions of grandeur.

Back to the Future

American supremacy is a consistent theme.

In 2009 for example, as Brian has noted elsewhere, the Brookings institute wrote the game plan for the current war against Iran. “Which Path to Persia?” (2009): explored multiple, sometimes radical options for a new American strategy.

• “Leave it to Bibi”: A notable scenario in the 2009 paper was “Leave it to Bibi: encouraging Israel to target Iranian nuclear facilities, offering the US “plausible deniability”.

• Shifting Strategy: shifting toward more aggressive measures, including potential provocations or supporting internal disruption.

• Obama Administration’s “Dual-Track” Policy (2009): , combined diplomatic outreach to Iran with the threat of increased sanctions if Tehran did bow to US demands.

• Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East recommended that the U.S. should avoid over-inflating Iran’s role in regional instability, instead exploiting existing constraints on Iranian power and seeking areas of engagement : Iran was recognized as an influential, but not all-powerful, player in the Middle East, with its power being more limited than conventionally assumed.

• Concerns About Provocation: The 2009 paper highlighted that Israeli strikes on Iran could drag the United States and other countries into a larger regional conflict.

• Internal Iranian Pressure: There was a focus on utilizing internal tensions within Iran to affect regime change or force it to reduce its regional influence.

Sound familiar? Trump’s actions were scripted in 2009, not that he likes to read much. The rest is just huffery and puffery.

Trump’s delusions are expressions themes and templates that belong to institutional lunacy that has developed over many years and become part of American political culture.

Trump is just one not very competent madman. But the real problem is the Madhouse itself.

The NSAM focuses on the guy with yellow hair frothing at the mouth. Before ,it was that old guy Biden playing with his wee-wee in the corner. And before that a handsome black guy, the serial killer. Trump is so much easier to write about. A walking, talking, farting cartoon character.

Mad? Maybe. But, if so, it’s the Asylum itself which is to blame.

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This video reminded me of Chappy who hid for about two weeks. It took him a year but now he follows me everywhere, cuddles, and sleeps with me. He is afraid of people except for me and one other. He is still feral. But I am honored by his trust.

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.

Today’s article for Coffee Buyers.

Just so you know ….Karp and Thiel are lawyers, not engineers.

“Minorities” , Indigenous peoples, Civilization

As you know, I post articles and analysis on the buy me a coffee website for my followers who do not just buy me coffee and help me buy broccoli and cat kibble but also provide me with encouragement and inspiration.

I started posting these articles partly because my latest very long articleon the rise of China and Russia and the demise of Western civilizations has been delayed because of the need to address the philosophical and sociopolitical issues created with the likely advent of what should properly be regarded as the evolution of new sentient species -- artificial intelligences.

One of the advantages of 2e Autism (Twice Exceptional Autism) is polymathy and autodidacticism, which means my brain goes off into all directions at once. I may have won a Fulbright but I am not smart enough to control what my mind does.

AND— I still have trouble tying my shoelaces and using a knife and fork and figuring out left and right.

Maybe “2e” means twice the excuses?

Anyway, I get so much from the News Forensics community that simple thank you’s are not enough .

Yesterday, I published Putin’s speech to a gathering of indigenous leaders in Russia.

This had emotional impact for me since my first real job after high school (and the zoo) was in a small indigenous community in northern Canada. In High School, I had learned to “mask” —as autistic people call imitating normal behaviors.

I never felt really accepted except by the first Nations people that I lived with and who knew immediately what I was. They nicknamed me affectionately “Zombie”. And taught me how to be a person! We were all outsiders, outliers.

Oh… “2E” just means I eat brains. Other people’s ideas. LOL

Canada’s policies towards indigenous people are colonialist -imperialist and influenced both by British and American, ideologies – which has led to the suppression of indigenous languages, culture, and customs. It is a huge loss

Canadians take it for granted. It’s “history” they say. They shrug it off, which means they learn nothing from the past and have no vision of the future.

This blindness to mistakes made guarantees worse mistakes in the future . Americans have a similar dilemma — or dilemmas.

This contrasts completely with Russian attitudes and policies. This is how Putin defines it….

Our country is home to 47 indigenous peoples. Each of them is an integral part of Russia and its unique diversity and serves as a keeper of unique traditions, cultures, and ways of life. Each people, and each ethnic group that is part of Russia’s close-knit family of peoples represents our shared heritage. Preserving and supporting them, as well as ensuring their wellbeing, is essential to safeguarding and strengthening the unity of the nation as a whole.

Let me emphasise that Russia has historically emerged as a union of various peoples. We have been mentioning this often, but I think that repeating this message is absolutely appropriate on this day, so I wanted to emphasise this point.

I am looking at a married couple right now, since it embodies the very notion of a union, both literally and in a more figurative sense. The young wife comes from the Krasnodar Territory, while you are from the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area. People come together to form mixed families, which consolidates our unity.

At the heart of this union lies a respect for the values and unique identities of its various ethnic groups. From the time of our early explorers – Semyon Dezhnev and Yerofey Khabarov – the expansion of Russian settlers across the vast territories of Siberia, the Far East, and the North did not, I wish to emphasise, entail the suppression or destruction of the indigenous populations’ traditional ways of life. It is worth noting that we are well aware of the practices seen in certain other countries, where reservations were established and so on. Ultimately, these lands were incorporated into the Russian Empire not through conflict with indigenous groups, but through cooperation with them, and with respect for their customs and traditions.

I would also like to remind you that from the 19th century onwards – almost a century before similar developments occurred in, for example, North America – conditions were put in place to enable the education and enlightenment of representatives from various ethnic groups, including small-numbered ones. To its credit, the USSR continued this work throughout its modern history.

By the mid-1930s, following the establishment of the Institute of Northern Peoples, many indigenous languages had gained their own written forms. It was also in the 1930s that the first scholars, holders of doctoral-level degrees emerged from among these indigenous communities. Today, Russian regions are implementing educational programmes that cover 76 native languages of various groups, including indigenous ones. A comprehensive range of measures is also in place to support traditional livelihoods, such as reindeer herding, hunting, and many other activities. Vladimir Putin

“Minority”

Reading my very brief analysis and the text of Puitn’s speech, one of my coffeebuyers--“djb” wrote me this.

I found this very moving. I like how the word “minority” is avoided. The respect for the people of Mongolia, personally I esteem them very highly, is very clear from numerous previous pressers by VVP.

He is rather a great patriarch in the purest, compassionate, sense of the word, I think.

I hadn’t thought about the term “minority” which was rarely used except in reference to parliamentary politics and only became really popular after WWII. It is still a buzzword.

Patriarchs and Fathers

Who’s your Daddy?

Nor had I though much about the positive connotations of the word, “Patriarch” outside of religion and how this applies to Putin.

So, a great comment. Like I said, I eat brains.

But I have thought a lot about “fatherhood”.

In studying Putin’s biography for my still-in-the-process long-delayed article on the rise of Russia, I was impressed by how fatherhood affected the young Putin positively, not to mention the influence of his own father, a humble war hero..

Fathers and fatherhood can make some people much better —and a few, like Trump , sadly, worse.

By and large, patriarchalism and paternalism are seen negatively in the West. But Russian Christians are Orthodox and their Holy Father is called a “Patriarch” investing the concept with a certain spiritual meaning.

Putin is indeed “patriarchal” in all the best senses, -- in addition, it is the source of moral authority – and of his enduring popularity with the Russian people -=- and even with people like Donald Trump, whose own father was in not exactly someone to admire or look up to or learn from.

Good Fathers, Bad Fathers

Good fathers recognize that all their children are different – but equal—and each has unique qualities that must be nurture.

Of course, with respect to the peoples of Russia, this has always been understood. However, Putin’s understanding of the necessity of continuing this tradition and extending it is part of the reinvention of Russia, and his drive to protect it from the noxious nihilism and moral and spiritual emptiness of the West.

By contrast. Trump credits his father with teaching him to be a "killer" and a "king" in business.

That brings us back to the term “minority” which is not inherently discriminatory, but implies a lack of power or value and a necessarily subordinate status in society— diminished humanity. A kind of “born to be a slave” thing

Not about numbers

It is not about numbers. But rather community.

Notice that the billionaires are few but never called a “minority”.

“Minority “ too often implies inferiority or second-class status and implies inferior values.

Elites establish values which become the “norm” for the “majority” are the norm and those who do not conform are less human even though they may constitute the numerical majority in many communities and even countries .

The term “minority’ tends to minimize the presence or influence who are seen as lacking “agency” . They are minoritized or marginalized.

Russia has never been colonialist or imperialistic at least, certainly not in the same way as the British and American empires. So in Russia social hierarchy works differently.

This is also also the case in China, which does use the term “minority” but here too cultural diversity is seen as a source of strength, keeping in mind that. unlike Canada and the US, the entire population is “indigenous”.

“Minority’ takes on different meanings in a colonialist settings. I won’t go into details about my opinions on China here right now — other than to say you can ignore Western propaganda about the Chinese trying to expunge ethnic identity .

Russia has a soul. As China does.

Can we say the same for the US or Canada or the UK or Israel– all nations which seem to claim a special relationship with God.

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Today’s post for coffeebuyers….

Friday marks a legal deadline for Trump, after which he should be required to wind down US military operations around Iran. But according to Trump, he already has: The president wrote in a letter to Congress on Friday that the Iran war was “terminated” thanks to the US-Iran ceasefire, which remains in effect with no firm deadline.

“There has been no exchange of fire between the United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026,” Trump wrote in the letter. “The hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have been terminated.”

Is it true? Not really, from all evidence available. While the US and Iran haven’t been engaged in the kind of full-scale hostilities that marked the early weeks of the conflict, a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in place. (Last month, the US even fired on an Iranian-flagged ship allegedly attempting to violate the blockade — in Trump’s words, “blowing a hole in the engine room.”)

US forces also remain in place near Iran, and there’s the ever-present possibility that the conflict could resume at full force — something Trump has continued to threaten as a deal to end the conflict permanently eludes him.

Trump is of course just doing what previous Presidents have always done, skating around the War Powers Act by denying the war you can see on the news is actually a war. Hey, it’s TV— it’s not real — unless we tell you it is.

No, the war never ended and it continues. The blockade is in place.

Except that the Gerald Ford has to leave the Mediterranean to take a crap in American waters and prevent mutiny over the food. There are also rumors about Iranian strikes on US warships.

According to the Navy, a single “component” failed in the Higgins’s engine room, although as an advanced warship, it has multiple powerplant redundancies. The Arleigh Burke class uses a COGAG configuration with four gas turbines.

The dog ate my homework….. Or was it my COGAG?

This comes at a time when the US mass media is revealing what we all knew — that Iran really did trash US bases in the ME.

In the meantime, the war against Hezbollah continues and the US has increased its support for Israel, which, having created one massive death camp in Gaza, wants to do the same in Lebanon. It continues slaughtering kids.

The US has a long history of organizing death squads and mass exterminations. as Hitler noted with great admiration, so this in line with good ol’ American tradition.

In any case, the US is beefing up its support for baby killers. Whatever happened to “Right to Life”.?

Massive Shipments:

In May 2026, the US dispatched roughly 6,500 tons of munitions and military equipment to Israel in a single day, to support the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) murdering Christian families in Southern Lebanon.

Types of Equipment:

Shipments include aerial and ground munitions, high-precision munitions, air defense interceptors, and Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs).

And sledge hammers.

Approved Sales:

The US government has approved large-scale military sales, including $8.6 billion in defense articles involving Lockheed Martin and RTX, and a separate package including F-15 fighter jets and tank/mortar shells.

Policy Context:

While 40 of 47 Democrats in the US Senate recently voted to block certain weapons sales, there has been no pause in the overall flow of US military aid to Israel, despite opposition from some lawmakers.

Ah, yes, One Nation under Zion.

This is no doubt why Japan wants to get back into the business of selling weapons. There is money in murder.

It is all very reasonable

What’s the logic of this?

It’s paraconsistent. Not the kind used in computer programming and AI work and the like— just Trumpian paraconsistency were contradictions reveal disconnection from truth and reality. Peace, freedom, democracy— murder, rape, genocide. Just don’t talk about the last three.

The US political system is based on this kind of thinking.

It’s hallucinatory of course. While schizophrenics create their own, and you might get the same effects from magic mushrooms, or the food on a US aircraft carrier, the US government uses the media to create technologically mediated hallucinations. On a drug, most people know they are probably hallucinating — because that is what drugs are for but in the Media are supposedly for “truth”.

In the 19th Century it was called willing suspension of disbelief.

And who pays for the show? You do, dear TaxPayer.

Trump is not unique in the Delusion Game. All Presidents do this kind of thing. So Trump knows he can get away with it. And he indulges himself. He plays with all the toys of his office. He has the intellect of a four year old, so don’t expect consistency.

A key device which has in most of American wars in this century – proxy war .

A Mafia Don doesn’t go out an kill anyone himself. He has hit men for that. But he can still get a lot of satisfaction from erasing someone he doesn’t like, knowing he will never be held to account. This “Don “ is no different. He just wants it to look like something it isn’t.

Ukraine was a proxy against Russia. An unsuccessful one, even with help from the NATO gang, so Trump pretends he had nothing to do with that. It would never have happened if he had been President he says — , even though he did a lot of the groundwork.

Didn’t work out. So Don transferred the task to NATO and Europe and told them to “negotiate” , blaming Zelensky, while at the same time encouraging Russophobia and making a killing *literally) selling weapons to be used against Russia. Money, money, money…. Nothing is as it seems to be.

Us? The US? We want PEACE. Only we don’t of course. If we had peace, what would we sell then?.
In the case of Iran, the US failed miserably in its attacks and now contents itself with an ineffective blockade while leaving the dirty work to its proxy – Israel .

Natural selection? More like un-natural .

A feel good video.

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Marching to a drum not beaten

As I said before, Trump is not “irrational” per se. His is a different logic.

For example, President Donald Trump’s second term is full of contradictions, even more than the first term. For example, he has—it seems-- attempted to dismantle the unity of NATO and Europe’s reliance on the US- -dividing the collective West. Europe must stand on its own he says.

But in fact he is uniting Western leaders and countries, transforming them into stronger apologists for the US and lending strength and ideological savvy to American globalism, not actually “disuniting” what took decades to build.

European leaders are transforming from weak-willed puppets into staunch apologists for American global hegemony. Western defense spending on NATO members will soon reach a remarkable 5% of GDP, up from the previous 2% under previous US presidents (which, in fact, was never achieved.

The Telegraph

There is logic here. Forget “freedom” and “democracy”. US power has always been first and foremost economic, just like that of the Mafia.

Hate the one you love

Europeans say they hate Trump. But their leaders seek to emulate him.

So there are contradictions in the popular narrative.

King Charles’ speech to Congress calling for a unified front against Russia highlighted those contradictions.

Delusionality is viral.

The war against Iran and support for Israel also demonstrates the logic that underpins it. If the US and Israel can wage war as they do, why should Europe not copy chapter and verse, with increased belligerency in Ukraine and against Russia —despite this not being in the best interests of European countries and doomed to failure.

Europe is hastening its own demise just as the US is.

Self-Harm

As I wrote last time, crazy people are not a-logical, not “ill’ anything. Certainly not illogical – although they may be ultimate stupid, or sell-destructive which is something that comes from beating theirs head against the wall of reality, a behavior driven by the logic of temporary distraction.

“Logic” aka “rationality”is not one thing but excuses for unacceptable imperatives.

Nature’s not at fault

Do not blame it on human nature. Blame complexity.

All societies larger than 50 people are complex organizations which rely on Alvesson’s “Stupidity Paradox “—meaning they persist in behaviors which are inevitably counterproductive because they deny basic truths.

We think “logic” is somehow “intelligent”. More often than not — it is not. Nor is it quite the same as “thinking”, in the sense of understanding reality. We often choose logics to barricade ourselves from uncomfortable realities. It’s called “rationalization”.

Zen proverb

Trump is not a snowflake, just a flake. And he is falling… As he should.

The choice of logics always depends on a number of factors including but not limited to:

• Perception of events, accurate or inaccurate, direct or derivative

• Assumptions based on experience, which similarly may be accurate or inaccurate, direct or derivative

• Emotionality, unconscious or conscious

• Future framing : wishful, reactive, emotional

You probably learned these three kind of logics in high school.

• Deductive Logic: If the premises are true, the conclusion is true.

• Inductive Logic: General conclusions from specific observations, offering probability rather than certainty.

• Abductive Logic : The “best guess” from incomplete, observed data.

Within formal Classical logics;

• Something cannot be both true and false. ‘

• Everything is either true or false (no “middle” state).

But, as I said there are a lot of other logics.

• Fuzzy Logic: partial truths or degrees of correctness (e.g., “warm” is somewhere between “hot” and “cold”).

• Intuitionistic Logic: Rejects the law of excluded middle, often used in computer programming theory.

• Paraconsistent Logic: Handles contradictory information without the entire system collapsing.

In other words, “logic” and “truth” are NOT the same!

Are YOU crazy? Maybe you should be?

By and large, schizophrenics – people (or machines) who hallucinate-- use paraconsistent logic or abductive logic—and are subject to emotional reaction.

Trump, like most political leaders, is delusional, he hallucinates, so contradictions do not matter to him at all. He insists he wants peace and chooses war. .He hallucinates that he is winning the war when he is clearly losing, which leads him to double down on his mistakes. He is also limited by a sub-optimal IQ.

Ironically, however, his behavior may have benefits in the long term. The US will be weakened by the war in Iran economically, militarily, politically, and socially. His actions are based on illogical assumptions implicit in the US system which he is expressing in terms that cannot be ignored.

Yeah, Trump is crazy. But is he less self-aware than the electorate that puts up with him?As Dr Bob wrote to me recently.

…no one accomplishes anything unless the people are behind that person. This doesn’t mean that the people have to support that person. Perhaps they just can’t be arsed to oppose that person. The latter is the case far, far more often than the former.

But this leads to the conclusion-that-may-not-be-spoken. Ever. That is: it is “the people” who are really in charge of EVERYTHING, and nothing happens without the people’s approval, or, more often, without the majority condoning or at least acquiescing to it.

Would a Democrat be more sane?

Comment:

OK. This is one of my more “autistic” pieces. It’s all over the place, I know. But maybe it adds something to the discussion.

Chappy for President!

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The Alpha-Summit.

Forecasting the future of Russia - and nobody in the West reports it since it doesn’t fit the narrative template.

The Shi’ite Art of War

Wanton murder is not winning.

Googling the MSM one would think that Israel is winning in Lebanon.

They are not.

I have been arguing the Hezbollah is winning! So, I think I must explain why I think the way I do. This is NOT a war that the IDF can win. Lebanon is not Gaza. And Hezbollah is not Hamas. Dropping a lot of bombs and wanton murder is not any kind of victory.

Hezbollah continues to decimate Israeli armor and vehicles in Southern Lebanon. Israel has several problems.

Terrain

The first is the ground – rough, mountainous, perfect for “asymmetric”, ambush warfare with highly mobile guerrilla forces using wire guided drones and ATGMs, The terrain restricts the maneuverability of armor and limits the usefulness of artillery since there are no identifiable fixed military positions to shell.

r

Conventional Warfare Mentality

The second is Israel’s success in conventional warfare in the past, as in the 6 Day “War, where they were able to leverage aviation and armor to defeat enemy forces nominally superior in number on open expanses of desert where large groupings of amour were also large targets.

That was long ago.

But Hezbollah is modern. It did not exist before the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It gained experience in the Syrian War against the West’s terrorist proxies, learning a lot about asymmetric war from not only the IRGC but Russia, with access to modern weaponry. It is a Lebanese Shiite organization supported by Iran—specifically, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

UAVS

Its UAVs include

• loitering vehicles for pinpoint destruction of armored vehicles, radar stations, surveillance systems and shelters.

• FPV Drones — striking in real time, taking advantage of terrain and cover.

• reconnaissance UAVs – not only reconnoitering but adjusting fire

This arsenal is well-stocked :

• Mirsad-1/Mirsad-2 reconnaissance and attack drones based on the Iranian Mohajer but manufactured locally.

• Ayoub (Ayoub) a long-range reconnaissance UAV that can penetrate deep into Israeli territory as far as Dimona.

• Shahed-101 / Shahed-131, or “Geran 2” attack drones from Iran via Syria.

• “Souls” are Iranian drones are designed to destroy armored vehicles.

• FPV Drones are home-made with RPG-7 warheads— mass-produced and inexpensive.

Hezbollah synchronizes UAVs with anti-tank guided missiles (primarily Kornet and its Iranian replica , the Dehlavieh), mobile artillery, MANPADS and Iranian short-range SAMs . This allows it to inflict maximum damage on ground forces and limit the IDF’s counterattacks.

The IDF has sophisticated hi-tech anti-drone systems, which theoretically are highly effective countering single and small groups of UAVs – under the right conditions. But in rough terrain optics and radars have trouble acquiring targets. The Iron Beam laser is limited by fog, dust, low clouds) and in any case, works best against single targets, not swarms of cheap UAVs. Consider also that a Merkava is worth $6.5 million and an FPV drone less than $100.

Hezbollah is mostly invisible. It has a tunnel system that surpasses Hamas’s in terms of size and engineering sophistication. Every now and again, the IDF discovers an underground base – but it is the tip of the iceberg.

The group also has support of the Shi’ite population and increasingly much of the Sunni and Christian population –at least 60% of the Lebanese people with that number growing by the day with IDF attempts at “Gazification” of southern Lebanon, especially Christian areas – and Beirut.

As Afghanistan demonstrated, a group defying a foreign invader, and able to rely on the local population, with some help from outside sources, will win if it is committed ideologically and prepared to fight for however long it takes – and take casualties.

As with Afghanistan you have a war of attrition. In the last year, suicide attempts in the IDF are estimated at between 200 and 300, although the IDF curates the numbers.

Trump

I noticed that, like everyone else, I label Trump “irrational” or “delusional”.

I think I am careless in my use of these terms.

Years ago, I had a psychiatrist friend who worked with schizophrenics.

He would often bring me paintings and ask me to analyze them. At the time, I was studying giftedness and psychopathology, especially in art.

My feeling was that what seemed like irrationality and delusionality to nominally “normal” people often had its own special logic and a kind of alternative reality. One could say that most insane person is a one who appear sane in a crazy world.

A classic case is the famous Rosenhan Study of the 70s which is still being debated!

In the case of Trump it is a mistake for me or anyone else to just write him off as a crazy nutcase. He is certainly a nutcase and crazy but dismissing him as just crazy is in its way “irrational” because Trump has immense power. Trump’s “irrationality” has a kind of logic to it, which I am trying to figure out now.

A bit more research….

I am very fond of Vangelis so….

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Mali is the subject of my daily post on the coffeebuyer’s site. RT has a quick take on it. Click on the image above to connect to the video.

Iran

If you are not following Armchair Warlord on X, you should. He is not always right but he is always interesting, if not enlightening.

He has written a beautiful summary of the Iran War, an overview that you should keep in mind. Wars, as Clausewitz rightly thought,are complex gestalts. One must look at the whole, rather than being distracted by the parts.

As I read the NSAM (Not So Alternate Media), I see it focusing too much on the parts —meaningless details or aspects that do not address real questions, and ignore the picture that those parts paint.

Who cares about irrelevant details like what Sy Hersh has to say (about anything these days?) He is in his dotage connected by intellectual IV to the State Department.

Who cares what the Don has to say? His IV has been disconnected unless it is connected to himself somehow.

There are only a few commentators, such as Berletic, worth listening to.

Of relevance here is that Iran has defeated the US, except for immediate economic effects, which are yet to hit home— but will. The combined effects of budgetary outlay, debt, dedollarization, and an overhyped AI bubble, combined with the degenerative dementia of the political establishment in the US will at some point have to be reckoned withj. A huge crash is possible. Or a slow, unpleasant death for the US.

For the time being, Iran, Russia and China are in ascendance. They will benefit, not suffer, from the collapse of dollar and dollar-centric financial hegemony.

Donald was right about Iran having changed—not as a consequnce of regime change, but of greater awareness of its strengths.

10 Points Review

Read Iran’s 10 points. It should not compromise.

• U.S. Non-Aggression Guarantee: A formal commitment from the U.S. to stop acts of aggression against Iran.

• Control of Strait of Hormuz: Continued Iranian control and management of the strategic waterway.

• Nuclear Enrichment Rights: Recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium within its borders.

• Lifting Primary Sanctions: Removal of all U.S. primary sanctions.

• Lifting Secondary Sanctions: Removal of all U.S. secondary sanctions.

• Termination of UN Resolutions: Ending all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.

• Termination of IAEA Resolutions: Ending all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions.

• War Reparations: Payment of damages to Iran for economic and infrastructure losses during the conflict.

• Withdrawal of U.S. Forces: Removal of U.S. combat forces from the region.

• Ceasefire on All Fronts: A permanent, comprehensive ceasefire, including halting attacks on Iranian allies and proxies . That includes of course, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Withdrawal of US Forces will weaken the family dictatorships in the Gulf. It will also weaken Israel along with the implementation permanent ceasefire against Iranian allies.

Obviously, the US will not agree to these points until American society reaches its tipping point.

Maybe it will never agree — until the US collapses as the USSR did.

After an American Yeltsin, will there be an American Putin?

Armchair Warlord

Apr 28

Very little in the Six Week War - capped off by the Desert Two debacle in Isfahan - could be considered a “tactical success” at all.

We got stiff-armed by a well-prepared regional power, ran out of ammo, and the Chinese are once again about to win by doing absolutely nothing. Let’s actually assess this in a rational manner, working my best guess as to what our objectives actually were during this operation - which is in and of itself a difficult thing to figure out given they seemed to change daily because nobody at the Pentagon was willing to impose any kind of strategic discipline on Trump.So, uh, let’s break this down by lines of effort because there were several.

Line of Effort 1:

Strategic neutralization of Iran as a threat vector to Israel and other US interests and forces in the Middle East

OBJ 1.1: Regime change

FAILED. Iranian government as currently constituted (”regime”) consolidated power; “Khamenei replaced with Khamenei”. No significant anti-regime protests recorded.

OBJ 1.2: Secure US/Israeli air supremacy over central Iran

FAILED. Coalition remained dependent on standoff weapons for strikes outside border regions; only apparent attempt to fly massed air sorties into central Iran resulted in lost aircraft and near-disaster. Most Coalition air assets withdrawn to inconvenient bases far from Iran due to missile threat and reliant on extensive tanker support to operate at low sortie rates.

OBJ 1.3: Coerce existing regime to align with US strategic interests

FAILED. Iranian hardliners empowered by perceived victory against the United States and Israel; more moderate factions have aligned with hardliners.

OBJ 1.4: Isolate Iran from great power support (Russia/China)

FAILED. Russia and China continue to provide substantial economic and military support to Iran.

Line of Effort 2: Destruction of the Iranian WMD program

OBJ 2.1: Seize Iranian enriched uranium stockpile

FAILED. Attempted SOF raid ended in debacle.

OBJ 2.2: Destroy Iranian uranium enrichment capability

FAILED. Iranian enrichment capability is in extremely hardened underground facilities which do not appear to have sustained significant damage from Coalition attacks.

OBJ 2.3: Destroy Iranian industrial pipeline to manufacture nuclear warheads

UNKNOWN. Little data exists here outside of raw speculation

Line of Effort 3: Destruction of Iranian means of coercion against Israel and US interests in the Middle East

OBJ 3.1: Destroy Iranian missile force

FAILED. Iranian ballistic, cruise, and drone capabilities very much intact.

OBJ 3.2: Destroy Iranian aerial forces

FAILED. Iranian tactical aviation intact; transport and logistics aircraft destroyed on the ground by Coalition forces were of limited tactical utility.

OBJ 3.3: Destroy Iranian naval forces

FAILED. IRGCN mosquito fleet currently the dominant naval power in the Persian Gulf; naval balance of power in the key Persian Gulf and Hormuz region has shifted AGAINST the United States and allies.

OBJ 3.4: Destroy Iranian regional proxies

FAILED. Iranian regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon showed resilience well beyond that expected by analysts.

OBJ 3.5: Prevent capture of Coalition aircrew by Iran

QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Thanks to strategically ruinous expenditures of standoff weapons, exposure of Coalition aircraft to Iranian air defenses was minimized, preventing Iran from taking POWs.

Line of Effort 4: Protect Israel, friendly Gulf Arab regimes, US military forces, and broader US interests from Iranian retaliation

OBJ 4.1: Secure oil shipment through Strait of Hormuz

FAILED. Iran secured control of the Strait of Hormuz and continues to export oil despite attempted blockade.

OBJ 4.2: Disrupt Iranian retaliatory strikes

FAILED. Coalition strikes did little to nothing to disrupt Iranian missile and drone launches.

OBJ 4.3: Degrade Iranian retaliatory strikes on Coalition military assets in theater

FAILED. US forces withdrew to bases at operational standoff from Iran rather than contest positions inside SRBM range, ceding influence over the strategically critical Persian Gulf to Iran rather than risk friendly casualties. Iranian drones and MRBMs caused painful if not decisive losses to Coalition assets throughout the war.

OBJ 4.4: Prevent Iranian counter-value coercion against friendly Gulf Arab regimes

FAILED. Iran struck countervalue targets in the Arab states at will and continues to hold them at great risk; Qatar (previously home to a massive US presence) appears to have given Iran a massive tributary payment rather than face further attacks.

OBJ 4.5: Prevent Iranian strikes against Coalition proxies in theater.

FAILED. Iran effectively struck Iraqi Kurdish militias being positioned as a proxy force, leading to the Kurds concluding a separate peace with Iran and withdrawing from the conflict despite extensive claims in Iranian territory.

OBJ 4.6: Prevent second-order economic effects of the war in the United States

QUALIFIED SUCCESS. Stock market apparently unable or unwilling to believe magnitude of ongoing energy supply disruptions; jawboning and frequent false reports by the Trump Administration of imminent peace and successful negotiations reduced market turmoil at the cost of the long-term credibility of the US government.

In summary: Deep failures across all lines of effort and very few objectives accomplished.

Dolphin Talk

Back at the Zoo, I spent a lot time at the Dolphin Pool, where I officially was not supposed to go. I would visit at night and talk to the dolphins. We were friends. I whistled. They whistled back. I thought they understood me better than my parents. Then again, my parents didn’t understand me at all. I was lonely. So were they.

But I wished they could be free — in the ocean not confined to some horrible, little pool.

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Hezbollah continues to wear down Israeli forces, which, unable to cope with their enemies’ tactics are bombing southern Lebanon and Beirut indiscriminately, generating ever increasing support for Hezbollah, greater hatred of Israel, and distrust of the American installed Lebanese government.

Israel cannot cope with FPV drones. It’s tanks don’t even have anti-drone cages.

The terrain favors Hezbollah. This is not Gaza.

West Bank

It isn’t just the IDF carrying out atrocities. In the West Bank, you have a psychopathic community of settlers. Here you see a car deliberately hitting two Palestinian girls walking on a public road.

Casual murder is the hallmark of Zionism.

Russia

The Lebanese and the Palestinians will be avenged. It will take time.

War, terrorism, hatred. Russia has been a target for all these things for a very long time.

That is what Putin must cope with.

The Cold War is a thing of the past, but we still have to overcome its grave consequences. These include attempts to infringe on the sovereign rights of states under the guise of ‘humanitarian operations’ or, as is now fashionable to say, ‘humanitarian interventions’; and the difficulty of finding common ground on issues that pose a regional or international threat.

Thus, in the face of a new type of external aggression—international terrorism and the direct attempt to transfer this threat internally—Russia has encountered a systemic challenge to its state sovereignty and territorial integrity and has found itself face to face with forces seeking a geopolitical redrawing of the world.

***

It’s not just a matter of our national pride, although that is important. The issue is far more pressing and dramatic. Will we be able to survive as a nation, as a civilization, if our well-being continually depends on international loans and the goodwill of global economic leaders? And; one that ensures stable political development. A sustainable economy is the main guarantee of a democratic society and the foundation of a strong and internationally respected state .
Putin 1^st Presidential Address 2000.

So what has changed in 26 years?

The Chechen War was a good example of CIA financed and directed terrorism aimed at destabilizing the Russian state and destroying its sovereignty. The Maidan coup him was also CIA sponsored terrorism, aimed at ethnic cleansing, if not genocide of the Russian citizens of what was then Ukraine, which was to become a neo-Nazi state set up to threaten the Russian Federation. In 2000, Putin made very clear that Russia could not survive if it depended upon the goodwill of Western countries – because there was no goodwill whatsoever. Today we can see with hindsight how correct he was in his observation.

I have been writing also about Putin’s economic philosophy. That too has not changed. The need for “an economic system that is competitive, efficient, and socially was paramount in the year 2000 and no less important today in the face of the hybrid war by Western powers. The SMO is just one front in the hybrid war but underscores the necessity of economic and industrial autonomy in all areas including the Infosphere.

Killing you softly

“Soft power” is not talked about much these days since most of the news is about military activity in the exercise of “hard power”, but it cannot be ignored platforms the social and political basis for military operations. In that respect, Russia must have control over its Internet and messaging platforms, just as China does – and also of course the West!

Western “soft power” is based not on five or ten years of deliberate policy. Or even on half a century of American dominance. But on hundreds of years of cultural superiority, which has metastasized into every aspect of global life. It permeates education (where European history is primarily studied). It permeates communications, where English is the lingua franca of global discourse. It permeates philosophy, based on a host of Western philosophers. It permeates science, where Latin dominates. It permeates cinema, where (even despite its leanings toward unconventionality) meaning is created by Hollywood and, to some extent, European studios. It permeates music, where the entire world continues to listen to American and European performers, and the enlightened part of the world listens to European classics. And it permeates literature, money, tourism, and much more.

Western soft power now fuses LLM’s with Google, based on data sets incorporating to Western narratives, disinformation, misinformation, and propaganda disseminated below the level of conscious awareness. We can see that in Russia and the Russian information sphere with constant references to Western media, and narratives clearly based on American, European, and Ukrainian Russophobic histories. Russia is changing that, protecting its own culture, civilization, beliefs and traditions.

That’s what you call “cognitive sovereignty”.

The Western version of cognitive sovereignty is implicitly Fascistic.

But now Russia is winning in Ukraine.

While the US is losing in the Middle East and Europe is disintegrating all on its own with its elites out of touch with popular opinion. If Russia has been patient with Europe it is partly because it realizes European people are not to blame, just as Ukrainians are not to blame, knowing that at some point they will grow tired of exploitation and suffering.

Putin:

Our people responded to attempts to pressure and threaten Russia, as well as aggressive attacks against it, by demonstrating their unity and firmness, while the state responded by taking swift action, including at the legislative level. This is very important. I would like to thank State Duma deputies, the Federation Council members, and also parliamentarians in the regions for this proactive political stance and for the high standard of professionalism. The parliamentarians have created their own front in the resistance effort, fighting for Russia, its security and its future.

If anyone thinks that a multi-party democracy, with its diversity of positions and approaches, and competition, exposes our vulnerability and offers a path to driving us apart and spreading social discord, they are wrong. They simply ignore what Russia represents and fail not understand it or its people. For us, love for our Motherland and resolve to defend it come above all else. This is the essence and the historical principle of a sovereignty-centred outlook. It is where our strength lies. Without it, Russia cannot exist.

How to support Russian democracy? The answer lies in economic autonomy and also equality so that every part of Russia enjoys the same benefits of belonging to the Federation . Equality has many meanings – but especially economic equality and access to services.

A separate task is to support the country’s regions, ensuring their fiscal sustainability and access to sufficient resources for growth.

As you know, a decision was previously made to write off two-thirds of the constituent entities’ debt on budget loans. This write-off is conditional on the freed-up funds being used for investment and other significant purposes. We are talking about a total of over one trillion rubles for the period up to 2030. Let me repeat: two-thirds of the budget loan debt is being written off. The regions are repaying the remaining debt diligently and on time. This year, that comes to approximately 100 billion rubles. But for many regions, even this current burden remains quite high – and we are aware of that.

The United Russia party has put forward an initiative to defer the repayment of regions’ federal budget loans from 2026 to a later date. Let us do just that. I ask the Government, deputies and senators to implement this decision without delay.

I also ask you to support the Government’s efforts and submit your proposals for incentivising economic growth, with a view to achieving sustainable, higher rates of growth. A solid legal foundation is needed for sectors aimed at advanced technological leadership and for the comprehensive development of Russia’s territories. Systemic legislative decisions in this area are already being taken – for example, on the implementation of platform economy elements, the circulation of the digital ruble, and support for creative industries.

Now you can see what utin wanted in his discussions with the Central Bank of Russia and the Prime Minister. Inflation is just one issue among many and not the most important one – which is equality.

The concept of equality applies to global development as well:

The global development model will be sustainable and fair only if it is based on the principles of equality and mutual respect and takes into account the interests of all countries. No country can develop alone—at the expense or to the detriment of others.

Thinking ahead

Americans think short-term. Which accounts for their failures.

Russian think ahead.

One of the keywords is “sustainability” which means a condition continuing into the foreseeable future and beyond, something that people can rely upon and direct their efforts towards and trust. That cannot be achieved without unity of purpose, the commitment of the entire population to mutual goals, education, meritocracy, and the aforementioned equality. The West unfortunately is dominated by predatory capitalism inherited from the exploitative empires of the past empires of the past in which the benefits of technology and progress always went to elites.. If the masses were lucky benefits leaked down from above.

Equality as equity and justice

In the US 41.4% live in “near poverty”. In Russia the official poverty rate is 6.7%. It may be higher but a lot of things that are expensive in the US such as education, healthcare and so on are much less so in Russia. Healthcare is free. Education is meritocratic, with thousands of scholarships and other benefits for the gifted.

In Russia equality is understood in terms as requiring both “equity” and “social justice”

Today’s post for coffeebuyers

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.

Hezbollah vs Israel

Israel continues the war in Lebanon. As we all know “ceasefire” is meaningless to the Zionists. But they are not doing well.

IDF casualties are much higher than admitted. Cases of PTSD have skyrocketed beyond the ability of Israeli health services to cope. Israelis are killing themselves faster than Hezbollah.

Bibi accuses Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire! LOL .

Iran vs the US

I think Will Schryver has the last word – as usual

Too Far to Turn Back Now

They will blow the whole wad on one last attempt to turn the tide of affairs.

I believe there is a coalescing faction in Washington that is pushing to get out of this war without further delay.

Militarily, it is a lost cause. Yes, I understand how many people think I’m nuts for saying such a thing, but that reality is becoming more apparent to more people with each passing day

Even so, I am inclined to conclude that the empire is into this gambit way too far to turn back now. Negotiation of a deal from their current posture is unthinkable. Iran is dictating terms.

The US blockade has been a farce so far. They have interdicted a couple ships for show. Many others have sailed on their merry way.

Fact is, the US Navy cannot execute a tactically meaningful blockade. They have, at most, 17 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Arabian Sea. They will absolutely feel compelled to retain at least a dozen of those to afford protection to the two carriers. That leaves five destroyers to enforce a blockade ranging over 3000+ miles of mostly sovereign waters (Pakistan and India) from the Iranian coast of the Gulf of Oman to the Strait of Malacca.

Good luck with that — especially if the Chinese decide to start escorting convoys with warships.

And so, back to the empire’s dilemma: even if they know they can’t sustain anything more than maybe another two weeks of high-intensity air strikes, they will almost certainly play that card in hopes of being able to improve their negotiating position.

Of course, many people see the headlines about “three carrier strike groups” poised to rain death and destruction on the presumptuous Iranians, and they understandably assume it is true.

They don’t understand that the USS Poopy Gerry (CVN-78) is a ship in sore need of two years in the repair dock; a ship that is hiding out in the far northern reaches of the Red Sea, with three destroyers assigned to protect it until it can sneak back through the Suez Canal in the dead of night and limp back to Norfolk.

They don’t understand that the US Navy has already been struggling to sustain the USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72) as it does figure-8s in the safe deep blue waters of the Arabian Sea — no bases in which to rest, recuperate, and replenish. Nothing but the increasingly scant pantries, refrigerators, and freezers of a ship that needs to feed 5000 people three meals a day.

And now a navy that was struggling to sustain a single strike group in the Arabian Sea will be faced with sustaining TWO of them. The USS Bush League (CVN-77) has arrived on station, presumably not any closer than about 800 km from the Iranian coast.

This is a fleet whose combat-ready sustainability has an extremely short half-life.

The air force strike component in the region has not been strengthened to any significant degree during the course of this recent “ceasefire”. In fact, it has been weakened considerably since its high-water mark in late February.

But a steady stream of C-17s has been delivering stuff of various kinds to the theater, presumably more air defense systems, interceptors, cruise missiles, and bombs.

The ground component remains entirely insufficient to do anything meaningful. A single Marine Expeditionary Unit on the USS Tripoli, a Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division, and several special forces units. Maybe amounts to 5000 combat effectives, but I doubt it.

Besides, I don’t believe they could insert even a mere 3000 combat effectives without some fashion of disaster ensuing. I apologize for my certainty on this point, but in my considered opinion, anyone who believes the US can insert a ground force into Iran — be it 1000, 10,000 or 100,000 — is bats in the belfry crazy. It simply could not be done.

So that leaves them with an attempted reprise of the first couple weeks of this war: stand-off air and naval missile strikes. They will blow the whole wad on one last attempt to turn the tide of affairs.

But they won’t disarm Iran.

And Iran will then strike back with unprecedented salvos from their substantial stockpiles.

And the state of affairs for the empire will go from bad to worse, with consequences as yet unforeseen.

What can I say? Other than: YES!

Russia vs Europe and Ukraine

It is very clear that Russia continues to make substantial, cumulative progress in the SMO. This can be understood by:

• Increased degradation of Ukraine’s infrastructure – logistics, military, port facilities. energy

• A virtual blockade of Odessa with attacks on ships.

• Brutal attempts at forced conscription provoking public backlash

• Increased open-ness of and activity by resistance groups on the left bank of the Dniepr and in the Black Sea area.

• Higher casualty rates in the UAF, especially among mercenaries and “elite” (neoNazi) troops, who, due to manpower shortages, must join conscripts to fight

• A 30:1 casualty rate in Russia’s favor.

Notice I left out “territory”

With Lugansk fully liberated and Donbas falling. the 680,000 strong Russian army, now spread out over a very long contact line, will soon find itself free to focus on liberating Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, establishing pressure on Kiev itself from the Left Bank in the north. After that comes the Black Sea coast.

As a result, the Russian internet is alive with commentary and debate.

Some commenters want to see Russia destroy the bridges over the Dniepr to isolate the Left Bank of the Dniepr from the Right, creating a geographic barrier to protect liberated territories. That won’t work. Right now the Ukrainians use the bridges to supply their forces with new troops, weapons, ammunition, and armor—which are quickly destroyed accelerating UAF losses, well over 2 million.

Drones and missiles, of course, can be launched from the Right Bank side. The Russians can only stop that by taking the area west of the Dnieper to the Polish border, which is where the bulk of the UAF’s weaponry enters the country.

As a result, some Russian writers suggest a military push from Belarus, with a force of about 150,000—which, of course, would be easier once the UAF is forced out of Donbas. This would cut off ingress of weapons from Poland.

Such a strategy might be easier now that Peter Maghar runs Hungary and is trying to reinvent the Austro-Hungarian Empire with a largely Slavic coalition of Hungary, Austria, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech republic, as a counter to the German dominated EU. To that you might add Bulgaria under the newly elected Radev. These countries are all ambivalent about Russia but threatened by an increasing domineering Berlin and Brussels, and of course the UK and France.

General of the Army Yuri Baluevsky, former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.

The former Chief of the General Staff, who earned a reputation as a man of principle both in that position and after leaving it, recalled that our former partners in the West, including those with whom we once tried to build a united socialist camp, openly declare: “You might survive until 2027, but in 2028, we will definitely attack you.” The general suggested considering the following questions: “What should we do in this situation? Should we continue to conduct a special military operation of attrition for several more years? Who will we continue to starve out—all of Europe, all of NATO, Japan, and all the other assorted others? And what about ourselves?”

He appears to concur with the influential political scientist Sergei Karaganov who has repeatedly stated that without Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons, demonstrating resolve, attacks will not seas. Says Baluevsky “ When will we start fighting for real?”

And: “Either a strong Russia, or it will cease to exist!”.

Of course, the Russian are encouraged by King Trump’s opinion that NATO is more trouble than its worth. It is also impressed by the demonstrated irrelevance of American advanced military technologies for a modern war.

Will Putin change course?

I doubt it.

The SMO was war on the cheap, which is one reason why Putin refused to call it a “war” and wouldn’t let anyone else call it that. It wasn’t “ a full-scale invasion” if it could be called an “invasion” since it was very small scale, using only a small fraction of Russia’s military resources— in some respects a kind of testing ground for the future, should Russia have to fight a larger, non-nuclear war.

The SMO unifies the country, stimulates development of technologies cut off by the west, and encourages rapid social and industrial development. It exposes corruption and bureaucratization in the military and business circles, too. So there is no need to accelerate the SMO– or go to the next stage. It is delivering rewards.

Why fight a war with EU and NATO, if they are already imploding, damaged by the death of the American Empire and Western style predatory capitalism?.

Today’s post for coffeebuyers is the full text of one of my source materials, RT’s omnibus article on Karaganov, a major influence in Russia. Some say ‘hardliner’; others say ‘realist’.

Don’t bother with the Wikipedia article on him — it’s propaganda.

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We are told that Putin controls the media and public opinion with an iron hand! NOT!

Russians are stubborn, naturally skeptical and love to argue. Especially about the economy. This article is positive in tone—others are not. This is one reason why Putin goes slow….It’s like herding cats.

And right now Russia is under renovation.

Western media predict the collapse of the Russian economy, but real changes in industry, employment, and capital flows paint a different picture.

Military-Industrial Complex as a Driver of Economic Growth

Western “analysts” portray Russia’s economy as dying and soon unable to finance the special military operation or social programs. They further suggest that this would lead to public unrest, the removal of Vladimir Putin, and ultimately the division of Russia’s resources by Ukraine and NATO.

This narrative has not changed for the last decade or more.

This chain of assumptions breaks down at every stage. The first point of analysis is the economy itself.

Russia is likely to emerge from the special military operation in a stronger economic position than before it began. It has long been established that the military-industrial complex is a key driver of economic growth, supporting science, technology, demand, and employment.

The Russian government has been investing heavily in defense procurement for five consecutive years, creating well-paid jobs and providing significant contract payments to servicemen. This generates consumer demand, especially in previously underdeveloped regions, which in turn increases production, consumption, and budget revenues.

The result is visible in the improvement of small and medium-sized cities across Russia, not only major regional centers.

After all, as Hitler knew so well, Russians are subhuman and not capable of doing anything really well – certainly not as well as Americans or “honorary” human beings such as Europeans .

So it was that Putin’s dressing down of the head of the Russian Central Bank and the Prime Minister for the failure of neoliberal anti-inflation policies relative to economic development was widely reported in the Western media to indicate that they had been right all along – the Russian economy was “fake” and Putin’s days were numbered.

What Western “experts” did not see – or perhaps saw but did not want to remark upon – was Putin’s emphasis on refocusing the economy on things like automation, AI, advanced technologies, and development of the regions, especially in eastern Russia in the north continuing the substantial progress already made in all areas. If only the US and Europe could do that!

Economic drivers for Russia are no longer the sales of natural resources and food and so on, but commodities and technologies. Most threatening to the West is the idea that Russia doesn’t need them.

If Russia doesn’t, who does?

Sanctions and Economic Sovereignty

Sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies have accelerated the “sovereignization” of the Russian economy. Many assets were acquired at symbolic prices, and profits now remain inside the country instead of flowing abroad.

This situation has also forced technological development. Russia has produced the MC-21 aircraft (with PD-14 engines and composite wings) and the SJ-100 (with PD-8 engines). The company “Power Machines” has begun serial production of GTD-170 and GTD-65 gas turbines, replacing Siemens and General Electric equipment.

The level of localization in the energy sector exceeds 80%. The number of domestic machine tool manufacturers has tripled, from 40 to 120. Advances have also been made in laser and plasma technologies, nuclear engineering, microelectronics, pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, and information technology.

Localization of energy could not have occurred without the stimulus provided by sanctions and also the SMO, which also empowered Russia to think creatively, and surpass the West in many areas, beyond military technologies.

Another key factor is capital flow reversal. Previously, capital was exported abroad; now, sanctions and financial restrictions have kept money within Russia, increasing domestic investment and liquidity.

This cannot be emphasized enough. Financial autonomy provides a degree of insulation against the economic hegemony exercised by the US and its G-7 colonies. Economically, the US has no friends, only slaves. Look what happened to Japan, once a world leader in so many areas.

If there is a global crash – as is very likely when the American AI bubble bursts and shale oil proves to be less than the panacea that Wall Street portrays it as, Russia will do very well. One of the last economies still standing.

One must keep in mind Russia’s huge investments in health and welfare, regional development, education and governmental infrastructure. As was the case with China, it might take 10 years to see real improvement.

Russia has also redirected energy exports, achieved food independence, and developed a level of digitalization rarely seen in Western economies. The system has become more stable and resilient — a process that has been unfolding since 2014.

Redirection of energy exports is a huge advantage as we see now, with the Iran War energy crisis. Food independence is another.

Of special relevance is digitalization, not only the use of AI to improve services, healthcare, and development –even the flight controls of the Su57 — but also the creation of a Russian Internet free from manipulative dominance of Google and other Western corporate conglomerates. Make no mistake AI is political. And seeks to own your mind.

Digital sovereignty is also cognitive sovereignty – mental freedom (as I write in my post for coffee buyers. .

Some critics ask why the “Russian Spring” did not continue after Crimea. The answer lies in preparation: without adaptation to isolation, collapse would have followed. Now, however, revenues are sufficient to finance both social programs and military needs.

After Crimea, Russia had to prepare for the economic and information wars to become military-- it was an existential moment. The Russians responded pragmatically . Putin’s famous “gradualism” was the result of his understanding that the West’s agenda was to destroy Russia and to prevent that the country had to grow and develop in all areas, socially, economically, spiritually, as well as militarily. Mistakes would be made in the process. And gradualism allowed Russia to learn from those mistakes and progress.

Living Standards in Russia and EU

Russia currently has high employment in well-paid sectors and historically low unemployment at around 2.4% .

The military industry has absorbed available labor, while mobilization and relocation have tightened the labor market, pushing wages upward and increasing purchasing power.

Low unemployment also signals a labor shortage, which stimulates investment in automation, AI, robotics, technical training, and high-tech startups. That said, the rewards of such investment will take time to appear. But in the long term they are sure to revolutionize Russian life. Western economists of course only think short-term.

The average salary in Russia is around 103,000 rubles. In the EU it is approximately 186,000 rubles after taxes. However, in countries such as Hungary it ranges between 74,000 and 83,000 rubles, while living costs in Europe are significantly higher — often by 1.5 times.

Russian Apartment

This places living standards at a broadly comparable level. When has such parity ever existed before?

Of course, salaries in Russia vary by location. They are obviously higher in Moscow than in some town in Siberia! They also vary by profession. But as the writer points out, living costs are much higher in the West.

In the US living standards have been declining for years.

There are risks, especially inflationary ones, but the Central Bank appears to be managing them—not solving the issues. Exchange rates, imports, and retail activity do not reflect the double-digit inflation often cited in Western narratives.

The Russian central bank’s role has been to manage inflation without interfering with economic and industrial development. The Russian government’s approach is quite different from that of the US which accepts high rates of poverty and homelessness and the hollowing out of industry, with the economy focusing on financialization.

Even major global economies such as China and India are revising GDP forecasts downward.

Not exactly. The revisions are slight.

Claims of a weak Russian economy are largely political narratives. Western predictions of imminent collapse function more as psychological messaging than as accurate economic analysis.

Lulko’s article appeared on English Pravda.

If you go to other Russian websites like Topwar and look under Economy you will see completely different points of view ! Among them…..

Gee, is Mironov going to be sent to a gulag?

One reason for the slow pace of the SMO is the way that it unifies the Russian people.

Herding cats? I like cats.

Yes, Russia is under construction.

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Today’s post for coffeebuyers

Are you just an algorithm?

By William Butler Yeats

I slept a long time last night and today too—before finalizing my tax returns.

When I woke, for some reason I thought of birds of prey, which I loved to watch as a kid. Ad then I thought about world events and prey and predators, the “anarchy” loosed upon us all. .

One thing that struck me in considering the irrational war on Iran is how it is like prey birds circling in a very big sky competing for position. Who are the prey? We can’t see them. Not yet.

It’s a bit like the fall of the Roman Empire. It’s hard to guess what will happen or who will die.

When you watch eagles in sky, you sometimes see them chased by seagulls or even flocks of smaller birds. Things are often not as you expect.

Putting aside the metaphors, it’s obvious that the American Empire is failing just as its immediate predecessors failed, as a result of aberrant economics, quasi religious hyper nationalism and the selfishness and greed of incompetent elites.

Where is our Bethlehem? What is our rough beast?

Good questions that we will know in time.

The possibility of a major recession gutting the G-7 economies is very real.

Maybe many of the will suffer G20 as well.

Of all the countries in the G20, Russia and China are best able to survive, if not profit from a global downturn, certainly in the long term.

In the case of Russia, the collapse of the Western financial system would not damage as severely as many economists think….

Not that economists are anything more than bone casters with PhDs.

My bones tell me that Russia will do better because:

• It is cut off from the American financial system

• It has extremely low national debt.

• Import substitution has made its industry autarchic

• It has abundant resources and huge reserves of gold

• While capitalist – it is state managed capitalism.

That is not to say that it wouldn’t suffer to some degree – but not as much as many others.

Ditto China where a global recession would affect growth.

but

• Western sanctions have made its economy very resilient and autonomous

• Its form of capitalism is also state managed

• It is supported by the diversity of its markets and supply chains worldwide,

• Its enormous population is in itself a huge market

• Its growth rate of over 5% would drop but not necessarily below zero.

We see Russia shifting its economic priorities as the USSR did following the Crash of 1929 towards development of industry especially:

• Robotics

• Automation

• AI

• Development of outlying regions and republics including the Arctic

• Targeting, real-world defense needs

• BRICS

The last is most important since dying empires are unpredictable and often result in regional wars.

As the SVO moves towards conclusion, Europe hsa become more strident and more aggressive.

Right now, NATO states and an increasingly fascist EU are talking of the necessity of war with Russia - -militarization and they backing up the talk with provocations which are costing Russian lives.

Suddenly , Russia has warned that continued European bellicosity will result in reprisals—as in, strikes on European territories for example drone factories in the Baltics . If Kalingard is threatened, Russia will secure the Sulwaki Gap with forces on the ground. Should NATO retaliate, the Russians will up the ante. Of course, Europe and NATO hope their actions will generate retaliation, thinking that the US will support them.

Trump won’t - although a Democrat might.

Trump doesn’t like Europe much. It isn’t Israel.

The US has used up so much of its supply of missiles and interceptors, that it would run out completely in short order should it join in a NATO war with Russia. It has a lot to defend.

Not only are its bases in Europe vulnerable, its naval forces are concentrated in the Middle East, easy to find targets for hypersonic missiles, of which Russia has at least 1000 of all classes, with impressive operational ranges. MIG 31s loitering in Southern Russia?. Submarine fired Zircons?

Yes. I know …Western “sources” say just 3 or 4 Oreshniks –but that information comes from Ukraine, so you can figure about 300. The Russians had 3 or 4 in 2024. But Oreshniks use only Russian parts and components and materials, which allows for fast manufacture, so obviously they have a lot more now.

In any case, the US has shown extreme reluctance to go head to toe with any nuclear armed foe. Mar a Lago doesn’t have a missile defense.

My post for coffeebuyers today relates to this, drawing on Russian sources.

What Russians are thinking

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Yes, I like birds. As a kid one of my autistic obsessions was birds!

Today, I had to fill out my tax forms for the Canada Revenue, pages and pages of stuff, just to get a tiny pension of a few hundred dollars a month, on which I pay 15% tax – even though I am officially below the poverty line.

I did the work with the help of my former business partner and I joked, “I think they are trying to kill me with stress and despair at getting any of this right!”

*I finished —almost. But I am exhausted. I started trying to write a post tonight as usual but I think I am too tired to think properly. Although I have posted every day for a long time, at least a year or even two, tonight I will take a break.

Sorry to you all.

There are so many things I want to write about, in some odd way all connected. But I owe it to you to attempt something like coherence.

Tomorrow….

Julian

“-tomorrow is our permanent address

and there they’ll scarcely find us(if they do,
we’ll move away still further:into now”
― E.E. Cummings, Selected Poems From: all ignorance toboggans into know

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