2025...ring in the old?

Next year is just one day away here in Japan so everybody's asking what's going to happen in 2025. Obviously, not a lot is going to change in one day.

Donald Trump doesn't become president until the 20th-- and he has all sorts of controversial plans--which might take a little time — like annexing Canada, Mexico, Greenland, maybe the entire world. Not to mention making Mars the 51st State and giving it to Musk, who wants to establish direct democracy there, democracy having failed in the US in the G-7 countries.

If you look at the Internet, you will see every sort of prediction for next year economically – leaving aside geopolitics, social issues, and that kind of thing.

Wall Street assures you, of course, the 2025 is going to be great – and you should invest your savings – both dollars – in stocks and bonds.

Trump says tariffs will turn everything around from the damage that Biden wrought.

Musk says bringing in to keep people from India will turn around the critical shortage of people in industry who can add subtract multiply and divide. Oh, and read and write too!

China. we are told. is generations behind in technology – especially semiconductors-- which is why we have to sanction semiconductor development and manufacture in China whose semiconductors threatens our own industry! Does that sound rational?

Of course it does it makes absolute, complete sense, doesn't it?

So, on the one hand .you have the mainstream media, especially Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times and the Economist—with the majority of their writers telling you there's nothing to worry about, although economic rag keeps a couple of Cassandra's around-- just in case,.

On the other hand, you have people like Michael Hudson and Richard Wolff who think quite differently. But they've been predicting a crash for some time-- and it hasn't happened so far – which proves that it will never happen.

That makes absolute, complete sense. doesn't it?

There are a couple of people, myself included, who worry a lot.

Mind you, I did predict the crash of 2008 – but I was one month off-- and dithered, losing half of my investments – although it all came back since I was invested mostly in Russian securities! Thank you Mr. Putin.

I had ignored the advice of my investment counselor who was a good friend, with a lot of experience. After that, I let him convince me to invest in something different-- and lost everything. As I turned out it was a scam. And he knew it.

Makes absolute, complete sense, does it not?

In this case, I can see that European economies are already in recession-- and can only get worse.

Simply put, the European miracle depended on cheap Russian energy, Now that's all gone-- and European businesses have been going out of business-- even Volkswagen teeters above the abyss. Whore houses are closing down because no one has any money. Europeans spent all their money on Ukraine – and now they have nothing.

Another scam! I could've told them. Be wary of your enemies- but fear your "friends" more. If they betray your trust – it can be fatal. You won’t see it coming.

The US has gotten by until now through exploitation-- most recently by sucking the economic lifeblood out of the corpse of the EU and UK, stealing Russian reserves, Venezuelan gold and properties, Syrian and Iraqi oil, Afghan reserves. Did I miss anyone? Oh, stealing the future of the American people?

But…what do you do and there's nothing left to exploit?

Now much of the Eurasian heartland has turned against America – along with the global South. Maybe it’s the genocide thing.

The US needs all kinds of resources to secure its future. It needs oil and gas and uranium — also various rare earths and metals for the technology and goes into its last remaining industry-- weapons. China supplies 98% of these.

Th US also needs the dollar as a reserve currency – which to work would require every nation to use the dollar in its financial transactions – allowing the US to borrow without having to ever honor its debts – and also to take margins all financial transactions, boosting its financial GDP.

But with BRICS all that has changed. Now countries can trade in their own currencies-- so every year dollar transactions decrease, the US debt rises proportionately, and the US constantly teeters on default. Dollar dominance is obsolete.

The US GDP is about half that of Russia and about 1/3 of of China's if it is calculated properly – perhaps less if you consider that the GDP is mostly financial transactions.

Stocks and bonds have artificial value—financial industries are not the same as industries which actually make things that you can use and increase the efficiency and effectiveness of your society.

Healthcare in the US is a joke-- a sham – along with higher education which works on the principle of the more you study the less you know.

The homeless increase every year and many states want to revive 19th Century workhouses.

How many Americans can save anything at all ?

AI promises to replace a lot of middle management.

Things get tighter and tighter.

I don't think Adam Smith would like either Trump or Biden.

Biden was a spokesperson for predatory capitalism. Or rather for one group of predatory capitalists-- the guys that Adam Smith warned us about back in the 18th century. Trump is spokesperson for another group of predatory capitalists.

Adam Smith believed in capitalism – that is free enterprise – the enterprise we have today is not exactly "free"-- somebody pays a price – and that's you!

A lot of people think that Trump has had some kind of "peak experience" and become a real leader. And change something. But Trump is the Make American Great Again. “Again” is a key word. It implies regress.

So far I see no evidence of the “greatness”– which would imply principles. Honor?

Richard Nixon who talked about getting out of Vietnam – "peace with honor". Trump wants to do the same thing with Ukraine. Nixon had no sense of honor. Nor did Kissinger. Nor does Trump.

The Russians have made it clear that, like the Vietnamese, they will keep on fighting until Ukraine surrenders. They understand honor.

For future security they need to crush the neo-Nazis completely-- that means complete defeat of the Banderites military, war crimes trials, and constitutional referendums, which will include various options, the regions of Ukraine that have not yet joined the Russian Federation. That might take a while. It took the Vietnamese 7 years after “negotiations” began.

Putin is in no hurry. He realizes it takes time. As a democratic constitutionalist, he does not want Russia to annex any part of Ukraine that does not want to be part of Russia. But no part of Ukraine can ever again be allowed to threaten Russia. No part of Ukraine can ever again allied with the West. That might mean giving Galicia to Poland – although the polls don't really want it.

In any case, the US faces military and political defeat in Europe, which it has to somehow label as “victory”.

But things like this can be “trigger events”.

Some economists are predicting a 60 to 70% chance of a major recession-- following some kind of trigger event. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be the Middle East? Or will it be in the US itself?

There are a lot of possibilities.

My advice? Move to Greenland.

Happy New Year and Thanks

A Happy New Year and thanks to all those who contributed coffees to me and Ichi and Chappy the last few days for Xmas and New Years.

I have been adding new names to the mailing list for the TWO Special Articles coming.

Most of all I appreciate the messages of support and the feelings. You give me purpose.

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