One of the reasons I like the buymeacoffee site is it allows engagement with a lot of interesting people. They don't just buy me a coffee and support me – thank you very much— they interact.
By and large these people are thinkers. They don't necessarily agree with what I write but they take my ideas and use them to create their own. So I'm constantly learning from them and gaining inspiration .
Let me give you an example of “Bob”. That's not his real name of course. Using his real name might affect his livelihood, as it has me.
In our exchanges, we were talking about longevity, which is one of my areas of interest in general (see www.ageingyoung.ocm!)
Nowadays, “longevity” cannot be mentioned without referring to the concept of “excess mortality” — a term that became popular during COVID.— and increasingly not just a way of judging the physical health of a society —but its mental, moral and spiritual health.
Now there is excess mortality created by diseases and other more or less natural events, although some of these involve human factors, the degree to which is often as subject of hot debate. Then there are events where human failures — social and political are the clearly the cause. Many of these are violent — war by military or socio-economic means, as was the case in Russia from 1990 on to 2000.
We understand the enormity of pandemic-related “excess mortality” easily enough because it affects us directly — but about how about unexpected death as a result of geopolitical conflict or the chaos of induced socio-economic collapse?
“Bob” looked for a way “seeing” such things from a different persepctive with more immediacy— he used Deep Seek and what he calls “9/11 equivalents”!
Now, Deep Seek’s results depend on the validity of its data base. Where there is ambiguity in the statistics, those results can be equivocal. An AI’s algorithms do not really “think”.
You will notice that Bob defined the numbers that Deep Seek works with rather than letting the AI do that on its own, drawing on “official sources”,
For example, recently I used Deep Seek to try to compare Discretionary Income in Russia and the US. The AI first conflated deposable Income (income after taxes) and Discretionary Income (income after taxes and necessities) and then used statistics established by the US government, which show Russian discretionary income declining and Americans having more money to spend.
Truth is how you spin it. And you have to weigh everything in proportion.
While the Russian economy is “levelling up” from the bottom, the US economy is improving only at the top. So, yes, financialization is yielding rewards to the top 1% and below that the top 20 %— but the middle class is shrinking and poverty levels are increasing. Last year, Russian discretionary spending was up 9%.
In short, Deep Seek could not give me meaningful results because I didn’t do what Bob did and define the parameters of “seek”.
As I said, he carefully defined data sets and values. And then asked for a result, which would be make more sense than just numbers or percentages, which anyone can quibble about.
This is what Deep Seek concluded about Bob’s methodology.
*Conclusion* :
Your method of using **"9/11 equivalents"** is a powerful tool for understanding the scale of violence and suffering in countries like Iraq. It reveals the staggering human cost of wars, sanctions, and internal violence, and underscores the disproportionate impact on smaller, less powerful nations. By framing these tragedies in terms of 9/11 equivalents, we can better grasp the magnitude of suffering and the moral imperative to prevent such violence in the future.
This is what Bob sent me:
Yes. I often speak of a "9/11 equivalent". By this I mean I take the number of people who died in the attacks in the US on 9 September 2001. Then I look at, for example, the number of Iraqis who died from the two Gulf Wars and the sanctions between them -- say a period of 20 years from 1991 to 2011. Then I allow for the difference in population. So if, for example, the US had ten times the population and 3000 people died, then a "9/11 equivalent" for Iraq would be 300 people. Does that make sense?
So then I take the total number who died as a result of American attacks and sanctions and the internal violence that resulted over that 20 year period, and I divide through by the 9/11 equivalent to see how many "9/11s" that would make for that country (Iraq in this example, but it can work for any country). Then I divide by the number of days in 20 years to get the 9/11 equivalents per day and to figure out how many days between 9/11 equivalents.
Does any of that make sense? Try it on Iraqi data.
DeepSeek responds:
Your approach makes perfect sense and is a powerful way to contextualize the scale of suffering caused by wars, sanctions, and other forms of violence. By using the **"9/11 equivalent"** as a unit of measurement, you can compare the impact of violence across different populations and time periods. This method highlights the disproportionate suffering experienced by people in countries like Iraq due to external interventions and internal instability.
Let’s apply your method to **Iraqi data** from **1991 to 2011**, covering the **Gulf War (1991)**, **sanctions (1991–2003)**, the **Iraq War (2003–2011)**, and the resulting internal violence.
Step 1:
Define the "9/11 Equivalent"**:
- 9/11 Death Toll**: ~3,000 people.
- US Population (2001)**: ~285 million.
**Iraqi Population (1991–2011)**: ~25 million (average over the period).
- Population Ratio**: US population was ~11.4 times larger than Iraq's.
9/11 Equivalent for Iraq**: 3,00011.4≈263 deaths.
Step 2:
Estimate Total Iraqi Deaths (1991–2011):
- Gulf War (1991)**: ~25,000 to 35,000 Iraqi deaths (military and civilian).
Sanctions (1991–2003)**: ~500,000 to 1.5 million deaths (due to malnutrition, lack of medicine, etc.).
- **Iraq War (2003–2011)**: ~200,000 to 500,000 deaths (direct violence, including civilians).
**Internal Violence (2003–2011)**: ~100,000 to 200,000 deaths (sectarian violence, insurgency).
Total Iraqi Deaths**: ~825,000 to 2,235,000.
For this calculation, let’s use the **midpoint estimate**: ~1.5 million deaths.
Step 3:
Calculate "9/11 Equivalents" for Iraq:
Total Deaths**: ~1,500,000.
-9/11 Equivalent**: 263 deaths.
-Number of 9/11 Equivalents**: 1,500,000263≈5,703.
Step 4:
Calculate 9/11 Equivalents Per Day:
-Time Period**: 20 years (1991–2011).
- Total Days**: 20×365=7,300 days.
- 9/11 Equivalents Per Day**: 5,7037,300≈0.78.
- Days Between 9/11 Equivalents**: 10.78≈1.28 days.
Interpretation:
- Over the 20-year period, Iraq experienced the equivalent of **5,703 "9/11s"**.
- On average, there was **one 9/11 equivalent every 1.28 days**.
Key Insights
Scale of Suffering**:
- The Iraqi population endured a catastrophic level of violence and suffering, equivalent to a 9/11-scale event **every 1.28 days for 20 years**.
- This contextualizes the immense human cost of wars, sanctions, and internal violence.
2. Sanctions as a Major Contributor:
- The sanctions period alone (1991–2003) caused an estimated **500,000 to 1.5 million deaths**, contributing significantly to the total.
3. Disproportionate Impact:
- While the US experienced one 9/11 event, Iraq experienced thousands of equivalent events over the same period, highlighting the disproportionate impact of violence on smaller, less powerful nations.
Comparison to Other Conflicts:
This method can be applied to other conflicts to contextualize their impact. For example:
- **Vietnam War (1955–1975)**: ~2 million Vietnamese deaths.
- Population ratio: US population was ~4 times larger than Vietnam's.
- 9/11 Equivalent: ~750 deaths.
- Number of 9/11 Equivalents: ~2,667.
- 9/11 Equivalents Per Day: ~0.36 (one every ~2.75 days).
- **Syrian Civil War (2011–2021)**: ~500,000 deaths.
- Population ratio: US population was ~15 times larger than Syria's.
- 9/11 Equivalent: ~200 deaths.
- Number of 9/11 Equivalents: ~2,500.
- 9/11 Equivalents Per Day: ~0.68 (one every ~1.47 days).
A 9/11 every 31 hours day after day after day for TWENTY YEARS.
But the West is the best, right? Humanitarians all.
What did the Iraqis do to deserve that? Oh, yeah. Nothing. Except want to control their own lives and their own resources and be left alone.
This is the sentence that brings it all home: THOUSANDS OF EQUIVALENTS.
Thousands of 9/11s. Thousands. 5,703 in fact.
Only in Iraq, probably HALF of these deaths were young children.
If you are an American, you probably remember the shock of 9/11. “9/11 Equivalents” understood as Bob presents them should provide an understanding of why so many outside the US hate America.
Bob also applied this method to Russia and the US. Next time!
All I can say is thank you Bob. You have given me a new way of seeing, As I keep on saying, “I see, therefore I think, therefore I am”.
But Bob is not the only person who gives me the vision to “see’. To all of you — thank you.
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I have written, more times than I can remember, that the US is the most violent, homicidal, deranged, monstrous nation ever to exist. If I were not an atheist, I'd tip my hat to Satan for his role in conceptualizing a political culture able to manifest the wishes of Beelzebub to absolute perfection. Not only has the US compiled a body count that would shame Hitler, but somehow, much of the US population lauds their nation as the citadel of Democracy. No psychopath has ever hidden bodies so successfully, while whistling a happy tune, as Uncle Sam. We have completely imposed global amnesia on the greatest mass murder in human history - the tetraethyl leaded gasoline genocide of the 20th century. General Motors held the patent on leaded gasoline which caused 100 million deaths globally. Grain alcohol could have safely addressed the problem of "engine knocking" but GM had no rights to the patent. Tetraethyl lead gave GM higher profits, and they hired sketchy academics to convince the public that lead was safe. It's all right here (https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/secret-history-lead/#:~:text=Lead%20is%20poison%2C%20a%20potent,than%20background%20or%20natural%20levels.) BTW - The perpetrators of this massive crime - Alfred Sloan and Charles Kettering of GM, now have a cancer treatment center named after them. I propose that The Sloan Kettering Cancer Center be renamed The Hitler Pol Pot Cancer Treatment Center. Hitler and Pol Pot were nicer people.
I have written, more times than I can remember, that the US is the most violent, homicidal, deranged, monstrous nation ever to exist. If I were not an atheist, I'd tip my hat to Satan for his role in conceptualizing a political culture able to manifest the wishes of Beelzebub to absolute perfection. Not only has the US compiled a body count that would shame Hitler, but somehow, much of the US population lauds their nation as the citadel of Democracy. No psychopath has ever hidden bodies so successfully, while whistling a happy tune, as Uncle Sam. We have completely imposed global amnesia on the greatest mass murder in human history - the tetraethyl leaded gasoline genocide of the 20th century. General Motors held the patent on leaded gasoline which caused 100 million deaths globally. Grain alcohol could have safely addressed the problem of "engine knocking" but GM had no rights to the patent. Tetraethyl lead gave GM higher profits, and they hired sketchy academics to convince the public that lead was safe. It's all right here (https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/secret-history-lead/#:~:text=Lead%20is%20poison%2C%20a%20potent,than%20background%20or%20natural%20levels.) BTW - The perpetrators of this massive crime - Alfred Sloan and Charles Kettering of GM, now have a cancer treatment center named after them. I propose that The Sloan Kettering Cancer Center be renamed The Hitler Pol Pot Cancer Treatment Center. Hitler and Pol Pot were nicer people.
Great insight. Thanks to you and Bob for sharing.