A blockhead's blockade?
Donald Chump
The negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan have failed – as everyone expected – since they weren’t really negotiations at all—just an American attempt at PR.
Trump has been insisting that Iran not obtaining nuclear weapons was “99% of the deal” when Iran has never attempted to make nuclear weapons on religious grounds.
It amazes me—despite my normally low opinion of public IQ that Trump mostly gets away with all this posturing, the braggadocio and lies.
In the meantime, Iran has been preparing the next major offensive against the Gulf states and Israel militarily —as well as against the US economically.
The US has few options left now in terms of air offensive against Iran having used up most of it standoff weapons and air defenses as you have seen from my previous posts.
As a result Trump is trumpeting a blockade against China to prevent it getting oil through the Hormuz Strait. The excuse, according to him, is that China is sending ManPads to Iran! (They are sending a lot more than that!)
Right now the “blockade” is just talk and it will remain that way for a number of reasons.
Among them that for an effective blockade, American naval forces would have to get closer to Hormuz than they are now, with the American carrier force located more than a thousand kilometers out to sea. The main targets would be Chinese ships or ships transporting oil to China, and if the Americans block these, the Chinese will restrict the exports of rare earths to America which would make it impossible for it to maintain its defensive or offensive capabilities.
Export restrictions on these vital strategic materials were recently loosened until November 2026 but these can be reinstated anytime.
In any case, the blockade would only work if the US Navy could take control of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island
Iran is not Venezuela!.
The strait is only 33km wide at its narrowest point, every ship that enters is within range of Iran’s entire coastal arsenal, which after a month is much more lethal than previously.
That arsenal is considerable.
Iran’s Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles have a 300km range and are designed specifically to hit moving ships at sea.
Noor and Qader cruise missiles, fired from mobile launchers hidden in coastal caves, cover the entire strait from the Iranian shoreline.
New new missile systems have extended capabilities not seen before:
Increased Range: Beyond 1,000 km, allowing strikes against vessels far from the Iranian coast.
Dual-mode Guidance: Use of active/passive radar and optical seekers to overcome electronic jamming.
High-Speed/Stealth: Supersonic terminal speeds and low-altitude flight to minimize reaction time for defending ships
In addition: Iran has an estimated 5,000-6,000 naval mines — including” influence mines” that sit on the seabed and are nearly impossible to detect.
IRGC fast attack swarm boats are designed specifically to overwhelm US destroyers in confined waters . A classified DoD war game found the US lost 16 major warships including a carrier to Iranian swarm tactics. This is a deterrent to the US Navy entering the Strait.
Iran controls three fortified island outposts (Larak, Qeshm and Abu Musa) sitting directly on the shipping lanes, each with underground bunkers and missile batteries
Iran doesn’t even need to win a naval battle, FPRI experts note Iran is running an “insurance blockade ”— it only needs to strike occasionally to make insurance uneconomical for commercial shipping. That alone shuts the strait down. That hurts Western economies, although not China or India.
If mines area activated, clearance would take a minimum of 4 weeks, and the US has decommissioned most of its dedicated minesweepers in CENTCOM. In 1991 it took 40 ships four months to clear Iraqi minefields in a permissive environment.
USS George H.W. Bush is en route but it will take some time to arrive since it cannot brave the Bab Al Mandab chokepoint.
If the US tries to go ahead with this blockade, the Iranians will resume their offensive against the Gulf states that Israel and I wouldn’t be surprised if this time around he doesn’t hit the U.S. Navy hard.
As I said, this “blockade” is just talk from a doddering blowhard, with few options. I don’t think it is even directed at Iran- but at the US public.
Economically the US is under pressure. Stagflation looms. And, on basis of market forces, the Republicans could lose the Senate, which would mean impeachment.
In the US, it is always the economy that matters, and right now it’s heading for collapse.
The US is facing bankruptcy.
Genetics matter
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Blockade China? That's crazy talk.
Is Mr Trump aware that the Chinese PLA Navy is the only one in the world that is bigger than the US Navy? What's more, it's considerably more modern and efficient too. And it would be operating close to home, while the Americans would be at least 6,000 miles from safe home ports. (In a war, China could obliterate all US bases in the Pacific).
Julian posed a somewhat rhetorical question of how does Trump get away with spewing bs. Well he can so long as people do not fear becoming destitute.
US elections are based on the perception of money in one's pocketbook. It will be the Republican's turn to take the blame for living standards declining.
Of course, it is the number gotta go up corporate capitalists that siphon away our earnings and savings. These billionaire cretins rotate the Republican and Democratic faces of the uni-party to share taking the fall.
Hopefully after the fall and splintering of this degenerate republic, those surviving entities will employ sortition in lieu of elections.