A Deal with the Devil

Temporary ceasefire?

Media reports indicate a mediated agreement between Israel and Hamas to be announced maybe this week, assuredly in advance of Trump’s inauguration.

The reported agreement is said to have three phases. The first would be a release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, including women, children, adults over the age of 50, and severely sick and wounded civilians. In return, Israel should release as many as 1,000 Palestinian “security” prisoners. aka hostages including women and children.

During this first, 42-day phase, Israeli forces will also withdraw from population centers and Palestinians will be able to return allowed to their homes in northern Gaza—not that those “homes” still exist. In addition, there will be 600 trucks a day bringing humanitarian aid, although the Israelis have a history of interfering with such efforts,. .

In the second phase, Hamas will release the remaining hostages in return for more Israeli “security” prisoners and Israeli forces will completely withdraw from Gaza. Yeah sure….

And in the third phase, the bodies of dead hostages will be returned in return for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza.

Notice that this whole thing will be extended for several months, leaving the Israelis lots of time and room to maneuver.

Sound to good to be true? It of course is. Why do the Israelis suddenly want “peace”?

Of course, they don’t.

It’s a tactical move. Israel needs time out.

On the one hand, Israel is on the verge of economic collapse with the country depopulating. It also soundly beaten in Lebanon. The Houthis’ attacks are getting more sophisticated and effective. The attempted attack on Iran was a total failure. And the IDF has been losing soldiers in Gaza on an unprecedented scale while Hamas shows no signs of giving up.

In addition, the situation in Syria is unstable, with the Turks unhappy with Israel’s support for the Kurds, Add to that. the upcoming agreement between Russia and Iran, Not to mention the opprobrium of the most of the non-Western world, as a result of Israel’s genocide.

The US wants to shift its attention to China and away from the Middle East – for a while – now that it figures it has a “win” in Syria.

Of course, every American “win” in the Middle East – Iraq, and Afghanistan, for example-- have been – in the long term-- a defeat. But the US does not think long-term. Public policy is geared to the news cycle and elections, creating images of “leaders” …um…”leading”. Leading where? It ever really matters, does it?

Right now, Trump’s inauguration celebration needs something to celebrate— and you can be sure Trump will find a way to take credit somehow for this peace plan. Was it that video he released on Truth Social with Jeffrey Sachs saying nasty things about Bibi. .

It is pretty clear that Israel is nervous – like many people-- about Trump. Putin is not the only one to see him as “unpredictable”. But Israel needs the US President on its side. no matter who he is.

All that aside, this “agreement” as I indicated, gives Israel time-out to re-orient and re-organize and then go back to same-old, same-old, perhaps hoping it can gain political capital in the US Media, the Senate and the House of Representatives. In this sense, it’s similar to the ceasefire that wasn’t in Lebanon, just prior to the Israeli invasion of Syria,

Netanyahu may be still hoping for America to join in a war against Iran. He also wants the US to greenlight annexation of the West Bank.

But should Trump get really irritated by Bibi’ — well—Israel cannot survive longer than a week without US support. In that case, it sbolutely needs Congressional Support.

So, right now, whatever Massa’ wants, Massa gets…...

We must wait and see .

Although the Israelis were violating the American-guaranteed ceasefire in Lebanon from Day One.

Odds on. Israel is counting on signing the agreement as a show of “good faith”—for Congress and the Media at the very least— while intending to renege , blaming Hamas for something, like throwing out plastics on the burnables day.

Israel, like the US lies—without shame—knowing it can get away with it.

This “agreement” is likely intended to get Hamas and its backers to lower their guard -and render them vulnerable to sudden attack.

Greater Israel— here we come!

On the other hand, I am sure Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis are prepared for that.

How can you trust countries that commit genocide?

Chappy

Chappy is adjusting rapidly. He and Ichi get along, touch noses, but do not play yet. But Chappy is trying hard, following his new Big Bro’ although Bro’, however, is still not keen on noisey, nosey teenagers. With me, Chappy is constantly asking to be petted.

More work on the Special Article. I will send the first half soon. An image from the first part. No, that’ s NOT Elon’s “grok”.

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