A New Iran?

What doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

Backtracking

I wonder if my analysis of the relationship between China, Russia and Iran, as stated in the last couple of posts, wasn't a bit shallow.

I feel somehow that there are were lot of questions and contradictions that I didn’t really dealt with.

It is clear from Putin's most recent statements that he offered a mutual defense treaty to Iran which Iran declined, and also offered Russian air defense systems like the S 400, which Iran declined also.

Yesterday, I wrote that Russia did not transfer S 400s to Iran. So why was everyone saying there were S400s in Iran?

Because there were — and are.

It is strictly speaking true but that does these systems are not Iran’s, nor their radars, nor their operators— they are all Russian protecting the Russian built Busherh nuclear power plant and its Russian staff .

Putin has said he has informed both Trump and Netanyahu that he had hundreds of people at this plant and was concerned about their safety. He put in in nice diplomatic language but the translation is simple: bomb the plant and you are not just bombing Iran and you are bombing Russia — which will bomb you back.

It’s a red line — again.

Priorities

In the meantime, Iranian tech people have access to those systems and can learn from them.

So far, Russia has made a show of being evenhanded – perhaps because 15% of the Israeli population is Russian-speaking, although marginalized as second-class citizens for the most part.

On the other hand, Russia's future depends on the success of BRICS and maintaining trade corridors through Iran.

As Brian Berletic, has pointed out many times Trump's goal is the same as that of every other president in recent memory-- world domination. Iran is the first target. Then China. Then Russia.

Iran’s position

Now it is true that Iran has prepared for this war were more than 20 years and can certainly go it alone against Israel and win.

Adding the US to the mix, complicates things, of course. It would be a challenge but not insurmountable.

One can see weaknesses in Iran’s geopolitical strategy, of course.

For example, it is clear from Putin's most recent statements that he offered a mutual defense treaty to Iran which Iran declined,

This reflects various issues including I think Iran's long history of betrayals by foreign partners and sometime allies, right back to the 1950s .

One must also consider the effects of American soft power on the Iranian people – that American Dream thing I talk about in my special articles-- fiction to be sure, but potent. Up until the Israeli strike, Iran seemed to hoping for some kind of rapprochement with the West.

Russia and China have only recently been able to offer all the things that the US pretends to be able to offer but which many of its own people cannot afford these days.

Iran not what you have been taught to expect,

Sure, it has the chador as formal wear but it is modernizing fast, moving towards a familiar consumerism . And trends there often originate in the West.

But the hostility of both Israel and the US, the sanctions, and now war have changed the attitudes of Iranians just as American and Ukrainian provocations against ethnic Russians in Ukraine did for Russians, unifying the nation not against the mullahs but against implacable enemies in Western capitals.

This is an existential clash of civilizations, with the West proving over and over again how uncivilized it really is.

If the US enters the war, the rupture between Iran and the West will be complete and irrevocable. Iran’s pro-Western politicians (there are some) will either alter their stance, as Pezeshkian is already doing, or be replaced.

That does not mean that young Iranian girls will go back to covering themselves head to toe.

Women in Iran

In Iran, nearly 70% of university graduates in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) are women—a higher percentage than in any other country.

Islamic cultures are modernizing fast within the contexts of their own cultures.

The West’s war on Iran accelerates its development, just as was the case with Western conflict with Russia and China.

Will the US attack Iran?

Hard to say. Realistically, the US would suffer severe losses and cannot defeat Iran unless it uses nuclear weapons. But that would force Iran to make a few nukes – and it has the delivery systems for them.

And it could do it fast.

Tulsi Gabbard was right. Iran can make a nuclear weapon in two weeks. Maybe less.

As Will Schryver, an analyst you should really follow, says.

Lots of people, with good cause, are piling on Tulsi Gabbard today. I did. But not for the same reason most people have.

The fact is, her last position on the question IS correct.

Her first position was the equivocation.

Assembling a nuclear device is 80-year-old tech. The only hard part is producing (or obtaining) the fissile material.

Iran has produced ALOT of highly enriched U-235. And they very likely already have all the components and the step-by-step instructions to assemble several nuclear warheads sized to fit on the various models of their ballistic missiles.

Probably wouldn't even take them a week. But they could almost certainly do it in a few weeks.

And what if they could? Whatcha gonna do about it? Not a damn thing. It's a fait accompli.

So make peace, you fools! What else can you do? (X)

The US has sent more aircraft to the Middle East but since it takes just 7 minutes for an Iranian hypersonic missile to hit Tel Aviv US forces are vulnerable wherever they are. Iran also claims the third country with “carrier killer” missiles after Russia and China. — that is hypersonic, maneuverable, and precise.

In any case, what is at stake is a new world order.

Special Article Putin 4

Having written umpteen thousand words, I looked at it once again, in the context of what we are seeing now in the Middle East and also in Russia and Ukraine.

It is really about the rise and fall of civilizations and the advent of a new era. The “West” is always look back to the past. “MAGA” right? Make America Great AGAIN. IN other words, imaging an America in the past which never existed and trying to resurrect it.

In other countries, people are look forward to the future and its challenges. Let us hope they succeed. Putin represents the future. The US is on life support.

So, my article is changing. I am rewriting once again.

I WILL finish it and I hope my coffee buyers will enjoy it. You deserve my best work, so I am trying to give it you.

Thank you for you patience.

Below Chappy beside my pillow where he sleeps at night.

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