A new world order?
My friend H sent me the article, below saying: ”You didn't believe me when I said that Trump will be good for the world ...”
No, I didn’t believe him then– and I still don’t! I am a stubborn old guy.
Arnaud Bertrand
It's becoming clearer and clearer that we're looking at a seismic shift in the US's relationship with the world, between:
1) The US dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses (like USAID )
2) Marco Rubio stating that we're now in a multipolar world with "multi-great powers in different parts of the planet" and that "the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us" .
3) The tariffs on supposed "allies" like Mexico, Canada or the EU,
This is the US effectively saying, "our attempt at running the world is over, to each his own, we're now just another great power, not the 'indispensable nation'. "
Nope, the US is not saying that it will stop “running the world”—just that it will recognize the power of Russia and China, which together surpass it militarily and economically. The US, however, has not given up its delusions of superiority, if not grandeur. Rather, it realizes that previous attempts to hamstring its competitors have failed.
But it will keep on trying. Right now, it is just repeating what it has done in the past.
For weaker nations, including “allies”, it is definitely not “to each his own”. Imagine what would happen if Canada left NATO and tilted to BRICS and China!
Who set up the “postwar global order” anyway? The US. It still maintains that order but just has arbitrarily changed the rules.
It looks "dumb" (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it's always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.
Nations are like people. Some smart. Some dumb. The US has been doubling down on dumb since the beginning of this century. “Dumb” recently meant insulting Russia with false intelligence estimates which Trump must have known was false. Dumber still if he doesn’t bother to read the news.
Trying to force Russia to “negotiate” terms that America likes ignoring Russia’s influence much less“sphere of influence” in a “multipolar world’ puts the lie to everything Rubio was saying.
Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the US is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order - brought to you by America itself.
Nope. Bertrand is talking about a “multipolar’ world – with one pole so powerful the others can’t compete. Umm...doesn’t sound balanced. Can an unbalanced world turn?
It’s hegemony of course—not “multipolarism” Of course, the US has never admitted to “hegemony”, anyway. And now it has a found a new word for the idea which is ever so much more marketable.
Even the tariffs on allies, viewed under this angle, make sense, as it redefines the concept of "allies": they don't want - or maybe rather can't afford - vassals anymore, but rather relationships that evolve based on current interests.
US has never had “friends”-- only “interests” as the saying goes. Tariffs on allies are intended to put them in their place just as inflation, taxes, and lowered living standards put American workers in their place-- at the bottom—making them feel powerless. These are not relationships that “evolve” —but ones that devolve.
The game is called “hegemony” and it’s win-lose. Tariffs are win-lose—and in the case of vassal states, nonfeudal taxes.
You can either view it as decline - because it does unquestionably look like the end of the American empire - or as avoiding further decline: controlled withdrawal from imperial commitments in order to focus resources on core national interests rather than being forced into an even messier retreat at a later stage.
“Core national interests”? LOL!
For the US those “interests” should be reducing inequality, free high quality education for all, free healthcare, and improvement of infrastructure—for starters— and more. For the Trump people, national interests are all about domination . Fifty shades of red, white, and blue…oh…and orange. Exploitation of the G7 countries, as well of the Americas, attacking BRICS, and somehow stalling the progress of China and Russia—and, of course, Iran—all while making the billionaire class a trillionaire class.
In any case it is the end of an era and, while the Trump administration looks like chaos to many observers, they're probably much more attuned to the changing realities of the world and their own country's predicament than their predecessors. Acknowledging the existence of a multipolar world and choosing to operate within it rather than trying to maintain an increasingly costly global hegemony couldn't be delayed much further. It looks messy but it is probably better than maintaining the fiction of American primacy until it eventually collapses under its own weight.
It looks like chaos-- because it IS chaos. Why? Because Trump and his dumpster team are NOT attuned to the real ‘changing realities of the world” .Dwindling resources? Trump says ‘America has everything it needs except for half of what is necessary for hitech stuff, It still has to import uranium from Russia,. Climate change? Trump doesn’t believe in that, despite the billions it is costing the US. The global popularity of the BRICS mode ? It is a threat which he will not tolerate.
So much for “choosing to operate” within the multipolar world.
This is not to say that the US won't continue to wreak havoc on the world, and in fact we might be seeing it become even more aggressive than before. Because when it previously was (badly, and very hypocritically) trying to maintain some semblance of self-proclaimed "rules-based order", it now doesn't even have to pretend it is under any constraint, not even the constraint of playing nice with allies. It's the end of the US empire, but definitely not the end of the US as a major disruptive force in world affairs.
Rome didn’t give up on Empire until the Barbarians were at the gate. In fact, not even then: the Empire moved to Constantinople. Where is the new Washington going to be?
All in all this transformation may mark one of the most significant shifts in international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. And those most unprepared for it, as is already painfully obvious, are America's vassals caught completely flat-footed by the realization that the patron they've relied on for decades is now treating them as just another set of countries to negotiate with.
No, the US has no intention of “negotiating” with its vassals. It will get is way through extortion or breaking political kneecaps. Lesson: if you don’t want to be buggered, don’t bend over.
The thing to remember here is that Trump has no “plan”, no strategy. Really, no commonsense. He is the big over-fed high school bully who figures he can cowe everyone into submission. But he’s too fat to fight.
Sorry Arnaud — you are wrong.
But many thanks to H. who is one of the smartest people I know and keeps me thinking.
China
If you want a different take on China, visit this site.Hua Bin’s substack. A simply superb article. And hints about what really is a new world order. The Year of the Wood Snake is a year of transformation that happens only once every 60 years or so,
Chappy and Ichi say thank you!
Ichi thinking about the New World Order.
“Will tariffs raise the price of kibble?”
Chappy and Ichi say thank you for all the nice messages on Substack and the buymeacoffee site.
I am now working on the follow-up articles to the last one which will focus more on Putin and Xi— and what has made them “great”—and made their countries ‘great again”.
Please note that due to technical problems, Substack does not allow me Paid Subscribers. But….
'“Core national interests”? LOL!'
To echo the Palmerston quotation, I might add that "Nations don't have interests. People have interests". Usually when governments talk about "national interests" they mean the interests of their rich friends and sponsors. (And themselves, of course).
How could a nation have interests when the interests of some of its citizens are directly opposed to those of others? When Mr Trump advances the "US national interest", he usually helps the rich and their corporations at the expense of the poor - now about half of the citizen body.
Why worry? If anyone complains, he can blame it on China and Russia.
In just 14 days Trump has caused
1.5 Trillion dollars to be lost from the US stock market . Plus gas is going up instead of down as he "planned". Civilians will be paying 10-25%more for everything within a few more weeks, IMO he's an bull in a China shop... Only Elon has made some return on his 288million dollar Trump' "bribe/ investment"