US and Israel doubling down
The US and Israel continue doubling down on failure and things are just getting worse.
There is no evidence that Israel's campaign in Gaza has been successful. The Israelis have lost a lot of men and Hamas’ capabilities remain intact. Israel’s attempts to force the Gazans to flee Palestine have been unsuccessful, since the people of Gaza have nowhere to go. Israel has withdrawn many of its best units from Gaza to fight Hezbollah but is not doing too well there either. Hezbollah can take casualties; Israel cannot and lying about his losses doesn't help.
American bases in Syria and Iraq are illegal and the US is suffering the consequences.
Three American soldiers died in Tower 22 on the Jordanian border which is an extraterritorial extension of the illegal US Al Tanf base in Syria. 34 more soldiers were injured—with that number expected to rise.
Biden has predictably promised retaliation and escalation— and therefore more losses.
With Ukraine having only enough ammunition for about one more month, Biden is doubling down, trying to connive more money for Zelensky and hoping to steal Russian assets to pay the bill, which will effectively destroy international trust in the US financial system, doom the dollar and crater the US economy.
The US and Israel anticipated the ICJ decision finding Israel – and by extension the US – guilty of genocide with defiance, cutting off support for the UN agency that provides humanitarian relief for Gaza—and giving the finger to the entire international community. So much for American “soft power”. Great news for the Chinese and the Russians and Iran and the emerging multipolar world.
In the Red Sea, the Houthis continue to win and the Americans and its Coalition of the Incontinent continue to lose, pissing away their assets. The Americans and the Brits are peeing against the wind. With interceptor missiles at an average $2.5 million a round, the operation will cost in the order of $2 billion. American and British strikes are as random and ineffective as they are expensive. The Houthis fire drones and missiles that cost between $5000 and $20,000. They have an endless supply — but the Brits have already run out of ammunition.
The domestic war
Domestically, Biden's attempts to shut down Texas is efforts to secure its border with Mexico have resulted in massive protests, inspiring new secessionist movement throughout the DisUnited States.
Lawfare against Trump and American populism continues with judgments against Trump made on partisan lines by partisan judges and juries-- virtually ensuring the Donald's reelection.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. In 2024 he may win the popular vote too— and, if he does, that will give him more power to replace Republicanism with Trumpism.
Not that that will change anything. American policy depends on the national identity – and that has to break down before anything changes.
Right now, Trump is campaigning as the antiwar candidate, promising to prevent World War III. He says he favors dumping NATO – and of course Ukraine.
Would he do that? Wrong question. It’s “could he?”
His first term demonstrated the limits to the power of the President opposed by the Media and half the population of a schizophrenic country.
So he did not drain the swamp—rather ended up wading in it, talking to frogs like John Bolton and Nikki Haley. The Deep State (so-called) is really MICIMATT -- and controls the media and public perceptions. In 2020, it got the Donald out of office by clever but legitimate manipulation of electoral processes. After that it started an abusive legal vendetta.
When Trump gets back in power, what will change? It will be business as usual. Dirty business.
Not much will change in the Middle East – the military-industrial complex and Wall Street wants to keep that going because weapons are the only things the US has to make and sell. As I pointed out before, there is money in war. Which is why the US is always at war.
Let us remember that Trump has always been very pro-Israel, recognized Jerusalem as the Zionist capital and signed off on more drone strikes in his first year than even that proud killer Obama did in four. Trump will just blame everything on Biden – although he may follow the advice of the military and withdraw from Syria and Iraq.
Trump says he wants to dump NATO and Ukraine.
MICIMATT hasn’t wanted that. But. now the US is losing in Europe. The Middle East war market is better, and conflicts can go on for years— with or without US bases in Syria and Iraq— ensuring a stable cash flow. If peace accidentally breaks out— well, there is always some place to start something.
That said, Trump favors economic conflict over military operations. In that respect he promises to get tough on China.
America sanctioning America
Mr. Trump has also said he would go much further in imposing “a bold series of reforms to completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas.” In 2022, the United States imported $536.3 billion in goods from China and exported $154 billion in goods to it.
Among other things, Mr. Trump has said he would impose “a four-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods — everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals,” along with new rules to stop American companies from making investments in China and to inhibit Chinese purchases of U.S. assets.
Still, Mr. Trump also hedged, saying without detail that he would allow “all of those investments that clearly serve American interests.”
Note the caveat at the end of this comment: “ he would allow “all of those investments that clearly serve American interests.” That's pretty much all investments and products!
Trump's policies are in effect reverse sanctions – sanctions by America on America – intended to do for the US what sanctions did the Russia – promote autarky and independent re-industrialization.
Russia was lucky enough that the sanctions were imposed from abroad, with malicious intent, that is to destroy the country as a nation.
To achieve what Russia has achieved would require massive subsidization in technical and technological education, infrastructure, and social services. It would require a public-private partnership which the American oligarchs would never accept.
It would also require an existential challenge such as an immediate threat of war against the American homeland.
Finally, it would require a talented and intelligent leader with foresight. The US is not going to elect Vladimir Putin anytime soon.
In the end, no president could impose the measures needed for economic rebirth arbitrarily because of the immediate and painful effect on the ordinary American. Putin and Xi are both men of the people. They understand ordinary people—that you cannot manufacture consent without offering something in return. Trump is nothing like that… He never had to pay for anything.
Trump's new slogan is Save America.
Save it from what? He doesn’t know. The Democrats don’t either. Nor does the public. Or maybe they all do know—just don’t want to admit it. For what threatens America is itself.
The rest of the world is already saving itself from the US.
The Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, the Gazans, the Houthis, the Syrians, just about everybody in the global South.
Personal note
My cat Ichi wants you to know (woof-woof) that while he has decided he is a dog and likes to sleep with me, he is not Woke and not gay. He sleeps with me because I am warm and soft.
He also says he will not support LGBTQ until they support him.
IF they start buying him coffee —maybe. Coffees buy kibble and special treats.
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Thanks Julian...
I found time to Tweet your enlightening vision.
Keep going !
Sander
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on these issues.