An end to violence? Or continuation"
Politics a continuation of war by other means
Springsteen has gotten older, just like me. But he hasn’t lost it.
If you read yesterday’s post, you will remember that I argued that violence and aggression are really not human nature, which perhaps is why the people who start wars rarely fight in them! And are often sickened by violence, thinking up ways not to see it, or ways to deny it or rationalize it.
Examples:
Heinrich Himmler
Arthur Nebe (Commander of Einsatzgruppe B) who oversaw mass executions in Belarus.
Reinhard Heydrich, the main architect of the Holocaust
“War” since the Neolithic has been an extension of the institutional violence used for internal control in most, if not all multilevel societies. It is tribal, and focused on obtaining resources and territory, where it can.
“Where it can” is the key . There is a pragmatic element always.
A tribe will attempt to take the resources and territory of another by force. But where it fails, it opts for peace agreements. Turning Clausewitz’s axiom on its head, “Politics is just a continuation of war by other means” That pretty much defines US policy..
One wonders.
Is that because the US is not really a nation, but just a collection of tribes, all vying for dominance. The Democrat tribe is as bloody as the Republican one. Do internal struggles guarantee that the US is “agreement-incapable” with other countries?
But we should not blame it on tribalism alone, I think. But rather on the US as a failed tribal confederacy, always at war with itself.
The Six Nations —the Mohawk, Oneida, Onondaga, Cayuga, Seneca and Tuscarora fought long wars in the northwest of the Americas, but no single nation was ever really triumphant. That resulted in The Great Law of Peace or Gayanashagowa, which was the basis of the Iroquois Confederacy administered by Clan Mothers.
It became the basis of the US Constitution, even though the Founders of the Republic did not understand, nor had any equivalent of the Clan Mothers!
If they had understood Clan Mothers, and something like that, which would be culturally impossible, each state in the union would be an independent nation in a confederacy.
Members of the Iroquois confederacy did not identify as “Iroquois” but as members of their tribes and clan . It was the French who assigned this identity to them.
Following this logic there would be no Americans, only New Yorkers and Californians, etc. 00
As time goes on, the US may in fact break down into regional tribes. Hopefully.
Because now, the US faces its biggest defeat since the Korean War.
Read Hua Bin’s wonderful article on Iran and the Korean War.
June, 17, 2026 - 23:46
Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America
The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America have jointly agreed in good faith on June 18 on the following:
1 —The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
This means that the US cannot carry out military operations on ALL fronts, most especially Lebanon.
Technically, this would include assistance to Israel as it pursues military operations not just in Lebanon but it the West Bank and Gaza and Syria. Of course, the US will interpret it to mean DIRECT involvement— fighter jets, naval vessels, and boots on the ground —and will not think the West Bank, Gaza, and Syria are covered because they are not specifically mentioned.
It does not mean that the US won’t meddle. .
For example, the US says it is not involved in Ukraine but Ukraine could not carry out terrorist attacks on Russia without the assistance of the US and its proxies and US financial support, funneled through European vassal states.
On the other hand, sash loopholes mean tha tIran is free to attack Israel in Lebanon or elsewhere.
2 —The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
This prohibits the US from interfering in “internal affairs”. It should include the actions of the CIA or American proxies, MOSSAD, the Kurds, etc but in practice will not.
3 — The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
Two months? Why two months? That is how long it takes for the markets to react— even tentatively. It means September, which is when campaigning for the November elections in the US will start up. It also provides extra time for Iran to organize its forces to deal with Israel.
4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
The US must remove its naval forces . That takes time, of course. Not just 30 days probably. And keep in mind this is AFTER the “final deal”, which is completed in 60 days, and, under the US constitution, must be authorized by Congress —”technically” again.
5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
“De-mining” is a big thing in the NSAM, which takes Western media reports as truth. .
The Mine Problem — The Most Underappreciated Factor
This may be the single biggest constraint on rapid resumption of normal traffic, and it is receiving far less attention than it deserves. Larry Johnson
However, there is no actual proof that Iran has mined the strait.
Since the strait was closed, hundreds of ships have transited, an average of 10 a day. No ship has been damaged by a mine. That implies that if there are mines, Iran has been careful in its placement and its ability to turn them on and off.
Transit of the strait will be free for 30 days, but some one must pay for maintenance of the strait, so Iran will do as Turkiye does with the Bosphorus and charge a “service fee”,which includes removing non-existent mines.
Sorry, Larry, you are not quite right. It’s Hersh Syndrome again.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, also estimated in a battlefield report the same day that Iran “likely laid fewer than 10 sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The ISW noted that Iran’s cautious approach contrasts with its stockpile of 5,000 to 6,000 mines, attributing this to risks of damaging relations with China or harming Iraq’s economy. China is a key ally of Iran, while Iraq has served as a transit route for Iran to bypass Western sanctions. However, the indiscriminate nature of mines—targeting both enemy and civilian vessels—prevents large-scale deployment.
6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
Note: “undertakes with regional partners”. This means that the GCC states pay.
Good for the US which doesn’t have the cash.
However, this will require the GCC states to get the money from somewhere - which will mean cashing in at least some of their investments in US treasuries. Bad for the dollar — good for the new digital yuan. The GCC countries will now be in debt to Iran.
7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Sanctions goodbye. “All types” . No more tanker piracy? Also good for Russia which will say, “why not us, too?” The Damnednocrats won’t like that.
8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Nuclear weapons was always a fake issue since Iran never had any interest in them.
9 — Pending the final deal, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
This is of immediate financial benefit to Iran.
11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
The US says the funds released should be “fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
That means that some of the funds, at least, go into rubles or digital yuan to repay China and Russia for weapons and buy more. For example, Iran has ordered 48 Su35s and 10 Su30s from Russia.
12 — The Islamic Republic of Iran and The United States of America agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
What is “executive mechanism”, it means bureaucrats who manage the details, monitoring compliance. This is a problem. Who will these people be? How will consensus be achieved? Thorny issues like Israel will probably NOT be included in their purview.
13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
A UNSC resolution can be “binding”. but the US routinely ignores such resolutions
The Iran Sanctions “Snapback” (2020): Resolution 2231
The Nicaragua Conflict (1986): UNSC Resolution 2728
Gaza Ceasefire (2024): UNSC Resolution 2728
An MoU is NOT a peace TREATY. Treaties require confirmation by 2/3 of the US Senate under the US Constitution. So, it will not necessarily end the conflict, just allow the US to do as it is doing in Ukraine—puppetry. Israel is a useful proxy.
One thing is sure, this defeat in the Middle East is ammunition for partisan wars between the Damnednocrats and Repukes in Congress, not to mention assorted brain eaters in the media and the zombie public.
For Iran, political chaos in the US, plays to its advantage. It will be much stronger in 2027.
A perfect overview and analysis of the current situation and possible changes in the Iran-War, Julian.
My Sensing can better be heard from those who know more from inner circles.
They were producing together on a YouTube Channel, but that was recently terminated after an order of the US Government.
So they started a new YouTube channel... As long as it lasts...
->https://www.youtube.com/@Transition_Protocol
Two of them, most of you will have seen and heard:
1. Pepe Escobar, from Brazill, but traveling all over Eurasia.
2. And (Ex-CIA) Larry C. Johnson who know the security world of the US.
3. And Zulfiqar Ali, from Pakistan and with connections about the Deal.
4. And Fadi Lama also from the region and the diplomacy.
The newest Video gives a good overview and you can consider them to be like me, Looking below the words and dig-out the Truth. The older ones can be surprisingly shocking.
The newest->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-Bw4llMIv0
Below the video is a clickable Index...
I do not give a summary. You need to listen and look yourself to get the reality.
Cassandra
Why try to bring the Nazis down to the level of Americans? What purpose does it serve? While one could come up with any number of American 1% who, while promoting foreign wars of aggression, sat out the fighting themselves, it would be hard to make that charge stick against the Nazi leadership. You mentioned Reinhard Heydrich, yet Reinhard attempted to fly combat missions in WWII And only desisted on orders from Hitler. Hitler himself had an iron cross for bravery in WWI, Goering had the coveted pour le merit. The son of foreign minister Ribbentrop earned the KNIGHTS CROSS serving on the eastern front in the Waffen SS. Two adjutants of Hitler, Wunsch and Peiper, who could have sat the war out in safety, begged to be allowed to fight and also earned Knights Crosses fighting on the eastern front. All of these awards were earned, not given due to class or privileges. It was genuinely believed that high status in a post war Nazi Germany could only be assured by a war record demonstrating personal courage and sacrifice. Money and connection s would not suffice. Criticize the Nazi’s for their cruelty and lack of empathy, if you will, but do not make them out to be American style cowards and hypocrites.