Analyzing the Analyst

Mercouris at his best

Alex Mercouris is one of my favorite analysts – just sayin’.

His recent program on Israel, Lebanon and Iran and other matters occasioned by the cross border incursion by Israel into Southern Lebanon recently was among his best – if highly nuanced.

Click on the photo to access the video.

Questions

Mercouris raises important questions.

Will Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah and important Hezbollah and Iranian commanders paralyze Hezbollah organizationally and make it militarily vulnerable?

Can Israel launch a successful ground offensive into Lebanon to defeat Hezbollah?

Is Iran’s new President Pezeshkian too “moderate” to prosecute a war with Israel and be forced to resign as a consequence, with Iran in disarray?

Mercouris raises these questions and parses the backgrounds for them — but does not offer his opinions of the probabilities — yea or nay – just the possibilities implied. So you have to make up our own mind. No categorical predictions.

Ground offensives

Israel has tried this twice –the first in 1982, when it occupied Lebanon .

That led to the creation of Hezbollah whose first leader Abbas al-Musawi was assassinated by the Israelis which led to the ascension of Nasrallah.

Ultimately, the Israelis had to retreat from Lebanon. And from that time on, Hezbollah grew stronger, absorbing other resistance groups.

In 2006, the Israelis tried again. Once again, they could not win—so lost.

Mercouris quotes Kissinger.

The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose. Henry Kissinger . Foreign Affairs. January 1969.

Even with assassinations of key figures, Hezbollah today is many times stronger than in 2006. It has about 200,000 rockets. In 2006, it had 13,000. Now it has an extensive network of underground fortifications, much more sophisticated than those of Hamas.

Bunker bomb overkill

It took 80 to 90 heavy bombs to breach Nasrallah’s underground bunker. Why so many?

One or two American bunker busters should have been enough but obviously the Israelis did not have exact coordinates for the bunker –just an approximate location.

So they took out not just the building above the bunker but at least three other large buildings as well. This was not a precision strike of the kind that the Russians are now famous for.

Does that look like a precision strike?

The Media, however, imply that the Israelis knew exactly where Nasrallah was. And Mercouris seems to accept that, implying a catastrophic breakdown in Hezbollah security and infiltration and superb Israeli intelligence.

Certainly, there was some kind of leakage of information —Israeli intelligence sources appear to have known Nasrallah was meeting with a top Iranian commander, more or less where and when.

Whether it was Hezbollah’s fault or Iran’s ,we don’t know.

Mercouris makes the point that it is much easier to keep secrets in a conventional military organization, with its vertical, hierarchical organization –need-to-know only at each level — much harder in militias and the like which are heterarchical organizations, as detailed in my Special Articles.

Certainly, US and Israeli intelligence services have a wide variety of means-- human and technological—to find out where Hezbollah and Iranian leaders are at any given time

Mercouris seems to believe in spywork –secret agents, traitors and the like for which Mossad has a reputation, enhanced by Hollywood, of course.

For sure, the Israelis have agents in Lebanon and Iran taking advantage of their heterogenous populations

But if Mossad was all that clever, as I have indicated, the Israelis would have taken out Nasrallah with a single precision strike.

The bunker was likely impervious to most Israeli bombs-- except American bunker busters. As I said, 80 t0 90 of them.

Does this imply US involvement? I leave that up to you.

Hezbollah Reborn?

Mercouris talks about “ossification” remarking that most of the assassinated commanders were over 60.

He implies that Hezbollah was resting on its laurels thanks to its huge military buildup post 2006. I somehow doubt that. Hezbollah is still a militia facing not one – but two nuclear powers – Israel and the US.

“Ossified” just means set in your ways. Old. Me.

Maybe a little geriatric?

In which case, Israel (as Mercouris obliquely suggests) did both Iran and Hezbollah a favor, providing an organizational shakeup with new leaders, new ideas – and greater motivation.

It will take a while to re-organize –but in heterarchical organizations changes are implemented fast. I have seen it done at Toyota and a few other Japanese companies – it is not only fast – but also effective.

Mercouris also talks about Iran and Pezeshkian, as I have said.

Again, excellent analysis —but possibly misleading if you don’t pay careful attention.

“Possibly”?Mercouris is always subtle, nuanced, detailed, open to different perspectives. And a lot smarter than me.

More about that next time.

Chappy Woes

Chappy is still suffering from his tape worm. This is is fourth treatment. So, it will be another two weeks. Complicating things is that Chappy hates hospitals! You can understand why!

It will take longer—and be a bit expensive. I feel so sorry for the poor boy. First, a broken hip. Now this.

Ichi’s former BFF, Jet. also had a tape worm as a kitten, which took months to get rid of.

We all have to be patient.

Please help me help Chappy. Buy us a coffee. Click here. Or on the photo above.