Apocalypse yesterday

I did the VO for this video Wednesday night in Tokyo.

It’s now Friday night. And things have changed.

Trump carried through on his warnings to strike infrastructure - bridges, rail, and power facilities, although the attacks appeared limited to Southern Iran, presumably to inhibit supply of munitions from central Iran. That is unlikely to be effective.

Attacks included:

• Bandar Khamir, an important overpass connecting Bandar Abbas to Lar. There were cars on the bridge during the attack, leaving at least 1 dead and several injured.

• Gariveh Bridge, at least 1 dead and several others injured.

• A railway station, west of Bandar Abbas, the point where the railway connects to the passenger and freight lines of Shahid Rajaei port, and the Bandar Abbas railway wee also bombed — 2 injuries so far.

• a telecommunications tower in Bandar Abbas, resulting in damage to several nearby residential buildings, killing and injuring civilians.

• a civilian airport in Iranshahr, in southeastern Iran.

Iran has built up weapons are now mostly in hardened shelters in the South, anticipating the US acting on its threats—telegraphing its punches, as it were. But people died and the damage will cost at least $60 billion to repair.

The attacks really serve only to harden Iranian resolvettheu. .

Somebody is going to pay.

And Iran responded…..

Some of the reports….

• Kuwait:

  Iranian forces targeted radar stations, Patriot defense systems, and fuel tanks at the Ali Al Salem airbase.

• Bahrain:

  Drones and missiles targeted U.S. Super Hawk radars and Patriot systems at the Sheikh Isa airbase, triggering alarms across the country.

• Jordan:

  The Jordanian military said it intercepted multiple Iranian missiles aimed at U.S. facilities, but it failed — they all hit.

• Qatar & Iraq:

  Missiles and drones targeted major U.S. installations, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the Ain Al Asad Air Base in Iraq.

• Syria:

  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed strikes on the U.S. s base in al-Tanf destroying a radar, helicopters, and killing US troops.

Tit for Tat

Al Tanf is interesting because the US handed it over to HTS in February . CENTCOM now has no presence there. The likelihood, however, is that there would have been a radar and helicopters, and personnel to man them.

It wasn’t the usual HTS crazies who confiscated a shipment of weapons bound for Hezbollah in the area recently . The specialized units patrolling the sensitive Al-Tanf border zone are comprised of U.S.-trained Syrian personnel—all vetted, equipped, and trained by the American military garrison at Al-Tanf to perform high-level counter-terrorism, border interdiction, and anti-smuggling operations. So American troops left — but the American presence lingers!

It’s confusing

We know that Jolani lies. We know that CENTCOM lies. And, of course, Iran can, too. But so far Tehran’s claims in the war have been mostly born out by evidence. It gets things wrong sometimes but it doesn’t usually out and out lie. That’s an American things.

The probability, however, that when the IRBC bombed this base, it was being used for something to support the US war effort

We can ignore CENTCOM — a fine collection of media whores.

sCENTCOM has ignored the hit on the King Fahd Causeway— as well as extensive photographic evidence of powerful strikes on US bases .

Strike on Fahd Bridge connecting Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

LOL.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has declined to comment on or officially admit to the strikes hitting its bases.

So, there are a lot of contradictions which feed OSINT propaganda and Twitter rumors and earn clicks for podcasters. But one thing is clear — if the US continues to escalate, then Iran will also . It will share the pain with its GCC neighbors —and also with the Western economies. If the US strikes vital civilian infrastructure, then Iran can take out GCC powerplants and desalination plants and strike refineries.

And the Houthis can close the Bab el Mandeb Strait.

That’s the Nuclear Option.

A simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb would trigger the most severe energy crisis in modern history, likely driving crude oil prices well past $150 to $200+ per barrel within days.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption (~20 million barrels per day).

Closing both routes instantly traps nearly one-quarter of the world’s daily oil supply, and spot prices for Brent and WTI crude would experience an immediate, unprecedented spike—a baseline jump to $150/bbl, with immediate risk of soaring past $200/bbl if the closures last more than a few weeks.

Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel prices would skyrocket .

Normally, Saudi Arabia can bypass the Strait of Hormuz by pumping oil via its East-West Crude Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, but tankers leaving Yanbu could not head south toward Asia, and heading north through the Suez Canal would only supply Europe, stranding the rest.

Almost all oil tankers would be forced to reroute around Africa, adding 10 to 14 days travel time, depleting global shipping capacity, and skyrocketing freight insurance rates.

A prolonged shutdown would trigger a massive wave of global stagflation, forcing central banks to hold interest rates high.

The U.S. and International Energy Agency (IEA) nations would be forced into an emergency, coordinated release of their Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to stabilize local refineries. Many nations in Europe and Asia would have to implement emergency fuel-rationing .

Even if closure was not complete, insurers would refuse to cover ships in these waters due to active combat, with the same effect as an actual military blockade.

Economic Armageddon!

Now, you understand why Iran is going slow.

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