April 16. Biden’s War. 3 Weeks To Go?
I had predicted that Mariupol would fall by the end of this week and attention would turn to Nikolaev.
Well, not quite.
Mariupol
Certainly, the RF now has control of all of urban Mariupol with the “Nazis” effectively imprisoned underground in the Azovstal plant. The Russians called on them to surrender, saying they would not be harmed, if they did. But Kiev and Washington won’t allow that. If it were the Americans, they would just use bunker busters.
But the Russians clearly want to take the inmates of what is now Azovstal Prison alive.
That said, they need to speed up destroying the UAF in Donbass if they are to get the Ukrainian government to surrender — or flee — by May 9, which is when the Ukraine used to celebrate its liberation from the Nazis. And the surrender of Azovstal be a significant psychological advantage.
Just three weeks to go to May 9, Russia’s celebration of the end of that other war they won — WWII.
Even if there are scattered UAF units in the Donbass, in places like Odessa, the Russians need a big push because some these units are large and well-armed.
Biden’s War
It is clear to all observers that the Empire will not let Kiev surrender much less negotiate — they want to keep the war going until the Fall Elections in the US if possible. It was the US that started this war, as part of larger, ongoing mostly economic war on all its global competitors. What the West likes to call Putin’s War is truly “Biden’s War”.
Therefore, Putin needs to reinforce his fairly minimal forces with fresh troops, make appropriate changes, assessing new options and bring out the big guns and cut off the head of the snake.
Zelensky’s provocations, false flags, and attacks on Russia itself make that decision easier. Ironically so does the sinking of the Slava missile cruiser. Although exact causes have yet to be revealed, the UAF and its Western controlled propaganda machine are calling it a Ukrainian victory — which is fine for the Russians, even if true. The Slava should have been scrapped in 2016 and the crew is safe. But all the hype in the Western Press about “hi-tech” Western supplied weapons — added to rumours of RC 135 spy planes with their transponders off over the Black Sea providing guidance for missile launchers — give Russia a good rationale for taking the game to a new level.
For sure, the RC 135 planes will have their transponders on — now at least — because if they don’t they can be taken out by S400s legally under the laws of war even if in international airspace.
A new game
You will notice that the Russians have using precision missile strikes on Kiev itself targeting missile component manufacturing sites.
In Donbass, the Russians are using TU 22 heavy bombers on the Azovstal plant. And they have brought in elite paratroopers and spetznatz teams.
Bombing is an efficient way of getting rid of mines and booby traps above and also below ground, at least down to the first basement.
But the Azovstal bunkers go deep. While the Russians can afford to starve Azovstal’s inmates out, they need get closer to keep them from escaping, which they try periodically and which could endanger urban areas.
In the meantime, the RF is carrying out missile strikes on Nikolaev, raising the ante there, as I predicted they would.
Some reports say the RF is massing troops for a lightning attack into the Kharkov area to threaten Kramatorsk from the North. But that may be a feint.
The UAF are using the local people in Kramatorsk as hostages and their missile strike on the railway station shows they are no respecters of civilian lives. Still these decisions are not those of the rank and file, but of their fascist commanders, who are increasingly unpopular. The officers may favor martyrdom but not the grunts.
A smart move for the RF would be to s trike due east in western Ukrainein a lightning thrust using armor, not bothering to take Kiev or Kharkov but taking Lviv, which would allow the RF to cut the UAF off from NATO supply.That’s not just my opinion. Scott Ritter agrees.
As the former weapons inspector put sit, taking Lviv would be “game over” for Kiev, which will either surrender or flee.
War crimes trials in June. Russia doesn’t have the death penalty but Donbass does.
I predicted that Putin would achieve his objectives by May. Well, maybe not by May, but in May.
'Bunker Busters': Intel Slava Z last 2 days: "Putin sent message to elensky saying he would use 'vacuum bombs' on Azovstal." Sounds like the fuel air bombs used to such effect by Sandline in Angola. A cloud of LPG is ignited after slight delay to massive explosive effect (see US MOAB), then the huge fireball sucks all the oxygen out of the surrounding atmosphere.