Blowback Nation
In my last post, "Stupid is as stupid does", I pointed out that American geopolitical policies are inherently irrational— not just in that they ineptly fail to achieve their goals—but because they encourage and enable what they seek to prevent. This is the Blowback Nation!
Sanctions
Sanctions, of course, are very good example of such geopolitical lunacy.
I recall Putin at some point being asked about the secret to Russia's success in revitalizing itself –restoring it's economy and culture. If memory serves me, he replied with one word – sanctions.
After Obama imposed sanctions in 2014, the Russian economy grew. It had no choice.
According to recent reports by the World Bank, by 2021. the Russian economy was the world's fourth most powerful nation in PPP (Purchase Power Parity) , nowadays the most important indicator of economic capability.
Fourth after the US, China and India. Ahead of Japan and Germany.
The World Bank on Thursday updated the data on purchasing power parity indicators. They show that back in 2021 Russia had accounted for 3.8% of global GDP, outshining Japan (3.7%) and Germany (3.4%).
Rather different from the Official Narrative in 2022.!
Russia is on course for an economic collapse that will rival or even eclipse the size of the 1998 slump which followed its debt default, although the financial fallout may be less than then.
But the World Bank had actually assessed the Russian economy to have grown to the world’s fourth strongest—before that — in 2017!
Why are we only hearing about it now?
You know why.
From 2014, sanctions not only forced Russia to seek new trading partners but to indigenize industry in all sectors. Business boomed. The oligarchs could no longer send their money abroad – if only because Russia had been cut off from SWIFT and forced to create its SPFS System for Transfer of Financial Messages system, which links to the Chinese Interbank system and is seen as a key element in the development of BRICS. This in turn forced to creation of advanced digital data systems, tracking every ruble to maintain reliability.
Tax Reform
As the Russian government developed its ability to track the movement of money, other things have changed too.
One is that Russia, as of 2024, will dump the flat rate tax which it'd inherited from no less than Joseph Stalin!
While ordinary people will still pay Soviet era 13%, the rich will get a higher rate-- 22% —not high — just a first step in a much more advanced and reformed taxation system.
Keep in mind, that the Russian budget depends on taxes more than on the revenue from sale of resources. The industrial economy has come that far.
Weeding out corruption
The second important aspect of data management is the ability to detect corruption— especially at the governmental level. No more ‘wink and nod’ to keep the system running.
That is one reason why you recently saw five defense officials up on charges of corruption,
Back in the old days that could not happen because, for one thing, ‘wink-and-nod’, it would be hard to establish proof.
But this is a new Russia!
Putin was trained as a lawyer – and is known for his respect for the Rule of Law, without which no society can develop, assuming that is a goal. The US is no longer developing, just doubling down and its “justice” system has become a cruel joke.
Putin is moving forward. These last six years of his presidency are the years in which he must establish his legacy – as I said, a New Russia.
Blowback made simple
American attempts to destroy Russia have made what seemed impossible possible!
Right now, the US is simultaneously encouraging Russia's emergence as a North Pacific and Arctic power, and it's expansion in the Ukraine.
About a month ago, the US apparently promised Zelensky they would give him the means to attack Russian civilian centers with HIMARS missiles, knowing that these would be ineffective in preventing the Russians from slaughtering Ukrainians in the Kharkov region thanks to advanced Russian countermeasures, while inflaming popular sentiment in Russia and the Russian parliament to deal with Ukrainian problem once and for all. Stupid. But they wanted to look good. Blinken and Zelly sharing pizza. It is all about appearances.
Ultimately, Biden wants to freeze the situation in Ukraine to an "as-is" state . He doesn't want World War III. He didn’t like change when he was young and he likes it less now that is a dodderer.
So, he will make a lot of shambolic, symbolic gestures – and encourage NATO countries to do the same. That means pronouncements and dithering about sending trainers to work with the Ukrainian military in Ukraine.
Macron's opposition, La Pen, I am sure ,hopes he will go along with this idea of boots on the ground, that are not really boots. Because the Russians will make a point of sending those people home in body bags as she has warned will happen. She gets to be the next president and withdraw from NATO.
More blowback.
The Russians have already shown that European cruise missiles are of little consequence —other than hardening Russian resolve.
NATO’s failures cannot be hidden.
No matter what stories the media tell
Failure doesn’t sell. (JM)_
US policies are destroying the political consensus in Europe and giving new life to opposition parties. The more the old ruling parties attempt to suppress popular sentiment, the more the public suffers, and opposition grows.
It's like wildfires in Canada. Once we didn't have brush-fires. Now you can't breathe the air in Summer. The smoke crosses the Atlantic to Europe.
The climate has changed gradually over the years. The brush dries out. A single spark can create a devastating fire.
The US has changed the political climate in Europe. It will be a hot summer. The US is dousing Ukraine with kerosene and lighting matches. It is piqued. It wants what it cannot have.
The US always coveted Ukraine's resources.
Now they will belong to Russia. They will help Russia rebuild its new republics.
That's probably okay for Trump. He doesn't much care about Europe or NATO or Russia. In any event, he can always use failure in Ukraine can always blame Biden and Obama. By 2025, the Russians will have created a reality on the ground in the Ukraine that will just have to be accepted.
“If only I had been President in 2022! Let’s do China”. President Donald Trump, 2024.
Differences attract
Men and women are different. But sometimes differences attract when needs are shared. Yeah, but sometimes your life partner can be prickly.
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It’s astonishing that Russia survived so long on a 13% income tax rate. That’s literally three times less than my effective tax rate in Europe.
The map of minerals in Ukraine is pretty insightful and in a way explains why the economy of Ukraine was fueled by the East. I would only add that Donbas has one of highest Lithium reserves (valued at over $10 trillion).
Thanks for sharing.
Russia wasn't cut off SWIFT until March 2022 . The Oligarchs were free to send their money abroad until then .