Buildup to War?

The Houthis do it again

The Houthis have done it again, sowing confusion in the West with the launch of a hypersonic missile which struck Tel Aviv, despite all efforts of Israel, the US, France, and presumably the KSA to intercept it, at least until its warhead separated over Tel Aviv, when the Israelis claim an “almost”.

The Israelis insist the missile was just a ballistic missile without the maneuverable warhead characteristic of the so-called hypersonic missiles we have all grown to know and love. In other words it was not a “real hypersonic” missile. A sort of knockoff.

They claim they did in fact intercept it—as I said, “almost” — knocking it off course so it landed somewhere in the desert. Only a few people were injured as a result of shrapnel from the interceptor missiles. We don’t know if they later died or not.

Even if we accept Israeli reports, one must question the efficacy of Israeli / American air defense technology. Suppose the Houthis launched 10 missiles at the same time in a volley! At least one maybe two or three would get through to cause major damage.

No matter how you spin the story, this is a big fail for what are Western air defense systems. It does not bode well for the Americans or Israelis if there is a major war with, say, Iran.

Iran immediately denied supplying the Houthis with hypersonic missiles-- and insisted that they are homegrown.

Maybe. Maybe not.

I argued a long time ago that the Houthis benefit not only from local innovation but from the IRGC and their systems could only get more deadly with time. This attack bears me out.

It is, however, in Iran's interest to spin the story that they were not involved since they do not want Israel using this incident as an excuse to attack Iran before it has finished mobilizing its defenses for a war which is surely coming and which the Israelis desperately want.

At the same time Iran is looking for better relations with the KSA, who understandably fear the Houthis— having fairly recently lost a long war with them—despite the best Western weaponry.

In other words Iran's denials are highly questionable .

The Houthis don’t say anything about help from Big Brother in Teheran but they have a different story from the Israelis. .

The videos of what appear to be cluster weapons hitting Israeli gas lines have not been authenticated . On the other hand , this is exactly what the successful attack would look like !

In addition, the Houthi missile “Palestine 2_has a warhead clearly has maneuvering bins for precision targeting .

But precision targeting usually requires a sophisticated guidance system, Notice I say "usually". It naturally depends on the target. And the kind of missile.

Gas pipelines are a good target — not as defemdab;e as power stations themselves, easily located, and vulnerable to cluster munitions--the shotgun effect .

Obviously, the Houthis have made major progress in missile technology. The Israelis the Americans and their allies should be very very afraid.

If the Israelis start a war with Iran, Tehran has many times the resources of the Houthis. And imagine how much the Houthis and Hezbollah could do with a little help from their friends. The Russians, for example.

Chibi and Jet

It has been quite some time since I lost Chibi (white) and his younger half brother Jet. I miss them! In that time period, a lot of human friends have passed away, too. I miss them too. But they live on in my heart.

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.
(In Memoriam A. H. H., 27.13-17) 

Coffees

Many thanks to all those who bought me coffees recently, written messages and commented. It encourages me to keep on writing and try to improve. It's sometimes difficult. The more I realize how little I really know!

Help me keep going— help us keep going— by buying us a coffee. Click here.

!

1