Ceasefire? Intermission
Buy some popcorn
Looking at the reactions of other analysts, it seems that my last couple of posts on Iran and Israel and the US were pretty accurate, if not prescient.
Pepe Escobar has come out with an almost identical diagnosis of events. That’s on Sputnik.
But there’s also New Atlas and Brian Berletic. Please read both.
Best is probably Alastair Crooke who puts it all together with Nima.
Of course, some analysts disagree on some points.
Mark Sleboda, for example, thinks that Israel managed to neutralize Iran’s air defenses. Nope. He is following the MSM on that one —presumably the fact that Iran did not try to repel the B2 attack recently. That wasn’t because it didn’t have the means to. Rather, it chose not to!
Keep in mind that when a B2 opens its bomb doors it is easily detectable by AD systems, even at a distance. If the Iranians had wanted to, they might have taken down at least one.
Crooke notes that Iran was forewarned: they moved the nuclear materials elsewhere and evacuated the Fordow so not a single person was killed. They wanted to demonstrate that the US’s most powerful non-nuclear weapon could not penetrate its underground defenses. I tend to think this was the wrong decision because it was taken as weakness by the US, despite Iran’s devastating strikes on Israel shortly after.
That aside, almost every major analyst agrees that this war has nothing to do with Iran’s getting a nuclear weapon! Which is also why the Americans didn’t care that much that their attack was a failure. They spun it as a success anyway. It’s show business, folks.
The whole, “We have to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons and bombing Oshtosh Pensultucky “ trope is a silly excuse that no one with an iota of sense would believe. Which means most Americans do believe it, I guess.
Even when Iraq used US supplied chemical weapons against it, Iran refused to respond in kind because the Q’ran forbids weapons of mass destruction — in fact, war on civilians in general — which is why Iran has never sponsored terrorism as the US and Israel have.
“Mass destruction”— that’s an American or British thing. 20 million dead since 1945.
Escobar and Berletic and Crooke all agree with the thesis I presented in various posts —and in detail in “special articles” for coffeebuyers— that the US is a declining Empire desperate to somehow maintain hegemony no matter what.
Crooke, as I, Hudson and Wolf and World Systems theorists like Arrighi do, identifies financialization as the root cause driving current efforts in the Middle East and elsewhere. It is the final stage of imperial aggrandizement before collapse: the US no longer produces anything except debt — and it lives off that borrowed wealth accumulated through the use of the dollar as a reserve currency.
The world pays the US’s bills. America is the universe’s biggest welfare queen.
Its hundreds of bases worldwide are not there to protect you or anyone else — just to secure tribute from vassal nations.
But now Russia and China are rising, along with the Global South. No one wants to pay tribute anymore or sacrifice for the US. Hey, America get a job!
Iran ends up in the crosshairs. It is a key to BRICS, not only in terms of resources but geographically— the doorway to the Heartland.
Regime change? The US doesn’t care who runs Iran as long as they bend the knee. They were happy to hand over Syria to terrorists.
Iran, however, is fiercely, sometimes stupidly (as in the case of Pezeshkian’s refusal to accept Russian and Chinese help in defense) independent.
That means that no matter who is President, the US will continue this war . If Trump stands down and Vance takes over —conflict continues. If the Democrats win Congress — it continues, too.
But up there on the stage, the politicians sing and dance.
Trump’s theatrics are just that — theatrics.
So, right now, you do not have a “ceasefire”, you have an intermission.
Use the bathroom, buy some popcorn and wait for the second act to begin— again—after a few commercials from our sponsors — the Democrat Party, the Republican Party, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin…..
Sadly, while Putin and Xi understand the “big picture”, Iranian “modernists” and “liberals” like Pezeshkian do not. More blood will flow. CIA and Mossad sponsored terrorism, sabotage, and subversion will continue.
More hangings. Air strikes.
Fortunately, Khamanei and the IRGC DO understand. Maybe not all is lost.
Coffee Cats
Chappy wants to say thanks to all those who bought him coffees.
Thank you again Julian...
I am using the current silence to reply on 2 things you say today and which i sense come from listening to too many narratives. That happens to us all, so don't worry...
1- '...the US is a declining Empire desperate to somehow maintain hegemony no matter what.'
I completely agree with the declining Empire part. But i sensed more times that the LOCATION of that Empire is wrongly named: 'The US'. The real Location and the name i give that Empire:
The Monster, who is located in 'The City of London', where the shadows lay and the EVIL LIES, Narratives and Holywood movie-scripts are being brewed. I currently name it: 'The EVIL ZIO-NAZI Empire'. And 'The US' is one of its puppets, or i should say 'WAS one of its puppets'
With thanks to Tolkien:
"One Monster to Rule them all,
one Tentacle to Find them,
one Tentacle to Blind them all,
and in that Darkness Bind them."
2. 'Trump’s theatrics are just that — theatrics.'
Again i agree completely, or at least that is the right name for it.
But i do sense deeper meanings.
These theatrics are not meant to amuse us or him, but are ONLY directed to his voters to keep them voting for him and prevent the attempts to split the MAGA movement along Zionist lines and it appears him to be successful. Not being a supporter of Trump, you try to interpret what he says on your background. You have to listen as if you are a MAGA-fan (and for both anti-Israel as Christian Zionist ones). That will determine the outcome of the Midterms... And the survival of the US in its battle with the Monster, that will at least last 2 coming Presidential periods (8-16 years). My sensing of the intentions of the Zionist Tentacle of the Monster are: PRIORITY ONE ! Break the Revolution ! Destroy the upcoming class war !! Turn Trumps voters against each other !! And using all tools it has (mainly narratives and controlling powerful puppets by Brainwashing, Threats or Blackmail), which you can see when you stop listening to the narratives and see what happens. The primary DANGER for the Monster is the threat of uprisings and revolutions. In Europe the protest are being smothered by the NEW-NAZI-Puppet regimes NATO and the EU. In the US Trump shook the Monster unprepared and awakened its weapons. The war on Iran and the continued existence of the Zionist Project in Palestine are NOT important. A regime change in Iran is important. It controls the south of the Heartland, where the Monster is intending to go...
My name is Cassandra and i wear it proudly, whether i am believed or not.
Dear Julian I need to clarify a few things here!
1- in Iran the system is more complex than you know here! The supreme leader is the final voice in matters concerning national sovereignty , defence and policy! Whatever the govt in place ! That’s a fact so whatever the out come of the confrontation and talks , the Persians are way ahead with 4 d chess
2-if Iran AD SYSTEMS are still intact and capable, why seek assistance from China and Russia ! Iran is independent and so far to this level has managed to maintain that independence and maintain freinds/allies on a need basis!
3- realy after the experience of what Russia did to Syria ( pre -Assad bust up) with all Russia installed Ad systems , isreal bombs Syria with impunity ! The Russians just held the forte! That means the russsian system is heavily compromised by Zionists! At almost all levels ! After all they got a front force of 1.5 million dual Zionists in Palestine , the best of the best in the genocide endevour! Does Russia not know that! Can’t they act on that??