Ceasefire? Timeout to reload?

Cease-fire?

Suddenly, Trump has switched from being a warmonger to peacemaker, claiming he has engineered a cease-fire between Iran and Israel.

Keeping in mind that for Israel there is no such thing as a "cease-fire"— as in not gratuitously attacking and killing people. We saw that in Lebanon and then in Gaza. “Cease-fires” for Israel are timeouts to regroup and rearm. In this case they are counting on American help in doing that.

Only one problem—with the US’s diminished industrial base, it's going to take time.

Israel has depleted at least half of its air defense munitions and lost probably 1/3 of its radar facilities. Its infrastructure has been heavily damaged in almost every aspect. It will require a lot of money before pampered Israeli citizens can get back their lifestyle. The US doesn’t really have the cash.

Iran is in much better shape. It has a solid industrial base and its factories are mostly undamaged. A pause will give it an opportunity not only to restore military infrastructure – but to upgrade it using Russian, Chinese, and North Korean technologies and specialists. It will also be able to use this time to root out Mossad and CIA networks—the ones responsible for targeting and killing scientists and their wives and children and all sorts of nastiness.

An issue has been so-called "moderate" politicians like Pezeshkian, who has lost a lot of credibility with the Iranian people.

By contrast the Supreme Leader, Khamanei and the IRGC— which operates as his military arm, among other things effectively preventing coups —have gained support.

It was Pezeshkian who turned down Russia's offer of a mutual defense agreement such as the one that Russia has with North Korea. He thought he could negotiate with the US! And Europe.

However, all that aside, Iran is now in a favorable strategic position, which it can exploit with a little common sense, sadly something not common at all.

The American strike didn’t do much damage – and Iran returned the favor by launching missiles at the American base in Qatar. It was symbolic—but it was a message.

If reports are to be believed, the Iranians informed Qatar ahead of time so that the Qataris could intercept some of the missiles – which the Americans of course later claimed to have shot down themselves! OK…so the Qataris were using American missiles.

Iran’s “retaliation” was a deliberately limited symbolic action showing that Iran respects its Islamic neighbors—a reassuring signal to other oil states, and especially to Saudi Arabia with whom Iran has only recently restored relations and also hosts US bases.

That does not mean Iran is not keeping really destructive attacks on American bases as an option. But it doesn’t have to waste missiles to carry them out: it can just arm resistance groups in Iraq and eastern Syria.

Iran’s most potent weapon is geography.

Its parliament has authorized closing the strait of Hormuz as necessary and Iran has already interfered with GPS causing multiple collisions of super tankers, discouraging traffic –and alarming insurers.

If the so-called ceasefire collapses or the US relapses, a strategy would be to booby trap the narrow straits with electronically activated mines – “off” for the ships of “friendly countries like China, India, Russia, North Korea, BRICS, --”on” for hostile Western countries.

Some countries, like Japan, would rush to hug and kiss Tehran. y

As I said, Iran is in a very strong position and all it needs is rational strategy , scarce as that might be in geopolitics.

Tehran’s recent use of multi-warhead hypersonic missiles has had a devastating effect on Israeli infrastructure. Without the “ceasefire”, what Emmanuel Todd calls the Zionist “zombie” state could only be home to the walking dead.

(Oh, it IS already? Guess it depends on how you define “zombie”. )

Trump is pretending its his ceasefire. But the indications are that this was really engineered by Russia after meeting with the Iranian FM as an emissary of Khamenei. Of course, Russia no doubt demanded that the US not only drop support for Ukraine but will rein in the UK and Europeans, which I am sure Trump agreed to do.

Putin probably nodded and smiled at that— knowing it wouldn’t happen.

US goals have not changed. Iran…China…Russia. They must die so Amerika can live.

Putin is a realist and thinks long-term.

He has announced serial production of the Oreshnik missile system – which I had thought had already begun since he had previously talked about having about 100 rounds available for use this summer.

It could be that the hundred rounds mentioned before was an initial production batch to be followed by more. Or, of course production might just be behind schedule. But it is clear Russians will have a lot more than a mere 100 of these weapons, along with upgraded missiles of other types, the S500 and S550, not to mention, laser weapons for use against drones.

All this is not intended for use in Ukraine – where it is really not needed at this point.

If used, it would be against Europe, including American bases if the Americans remain.

Iran would be wise to pay attention.

The “ceasefire” is an opportunity for Iran has to upgrade its defense systems, which are good but a decade olde and not impenetrable.

My research suggests that they are based on Chinese analogs of the S300, upgraded from the Russian version. The Iranians claim the Bavar 373 is comparable to the S400 system, and superior to the Chinese HQ 9 —but I have my doubts.

The Bavar can detect and destroy F35s which has forced the Israelis to use stand-off weapons and presumably a lot of EW, drawing on Mossad’s intelligence work on Iranian radars.

This is an area where Iran needs Russian help.

Russia is the world leader in EW, as well as long-range radars.

The “ceasefire” is a window of opportunity — but it will not last. Israel does not have a good record as far as ceasefires are concerned. Nor the US. The are mad dogs.

If they were rational actors they would use the opportunity to negotiate a way out of the quagmire. But they are, as Todd says, zombies. The Walking Dead.

Most critics trip on this concept— but it is fairly simple.

Todd coined the term with respect to Catholicism indicating the values and morality of Catholicism jhad died leaving a “zombie” church, which preyed on believers who, of course, became zombies too.

For Todd, “zombie-ism” is a metaphor for modern nihilism not just catholicism but all dominant belief systems in the West. The idea has caught on so you will see references to “zombie liberalism”, “zombie democracies” and “zombie politicians”.

Eat any brains recently?

Bushbabies. (Lesser Galagos)

They are very cute. But should not be kept as pets! They need their social groups and special environments

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