Dear Vlad'

Dear Vlad,

I regard you as a friend – since we share similar interests like judo, martial arts love of animals and stuff like that. We both value honesty.

I know you're busy – so I forgive you for not writing or calling or even posting photos of your breakfast on Facebook for me like my other friends do — or would do— if I had any other friends .

The complaint

Still, I feel I can speak to you honestly – and make an eeeny weeny teeney complaint.

As you know, I'm an aging writer in Tokyo, a stranger in a strange land – or strange lands, which include my own, Canada.

The world has for some reason allowed me to live on while many of my friends, many of those I love, have passed. So I'm trying to use the time I have left to do something meaningful-- writing analysis. It is the best form of remembrance. That “honesty” thing.

I try to write as often as I can for my News Forensics page on Substack.

I call it "News Forensics" because the “news” these days in the mainstream media is not real information….

Something happens. An event.

Like a person lying in a pool of blood in the street. Nobody knows what happened, especially the police. But the reporters asks some guy in blue on site for a comment anyway. He doesn't know. Still, he blurts something out anyway which is duly published: “Police say….”

The fact that the “source” was a beat cop just trying to control the crowd with their smart phones, snapping pictures of a crushed skull is not mentioned.

What Matters

The dead person on the street had a life once – a history. In some sense, we are all him and he is all us. He deserved better/

A good detective will look for clues and make deductions and analyze. He cannot just walk by. Danger for one, is danger for all.

Perceive that which cannot be seen with the eye.  Miyamoto Musashi 

To truly “see”, you must use more than your eyes.

The perceived world is the always-presupposed foundation of all rationality, all value, and all existence . Maurice Merleau-Ponty. The Primacy of Perception

You know this, of course, from your training in the martial arts.

In the martial arts, we “see” with our entire body—holistically.

"Forensics" as I call it is all about perception, about seeing what really happened, working from clues connecting the dots and the like.

Special Articles

So in addition, to my frequent articles on Substack which anybody can read, I write "special articles" for supporters who buy coffee for me and my cat Ichi.

A cat has absolute emotional honesty: human beings, for one reason or another, may hide their feelings, but a cat does not. Ernest Hemingway

The special articles are longer and take time because they are in-depth analyses that require a lot of effort— particularly multidisciplinary research— drawing on everything from paleontology to anthropology to economics to history to philosophy-- to political "science". The dots connect where they connect.

I figure I owe my supporters something extra-- not only for their financial contributions, which help a lot since I have no income and almost no savings—but especially for the messages and comments they send me which inspire me and encourage me—and also for the constructive criticism they often offer -- new ways of thinking— things I miss.

From high school on, I was labeled “gifted”-- but those ”gifts” are also deficits, defects. I'm like a blind man who can hear everything— but cannot see. So, I cannot create in a vacuum, without the help of others. I owe these people, my special supporters, a LOT!

I know, I know – I waffle. But hey we're friends right?

But sometimes you make things difficult

Friends do that!

Here I am working on a special article. trying to finish it by next week-- despite Microsoft crashing my system every day or two. At the same time I'm trying to keep up with events in the news.

Yesterday, US sanctions were in the news-- with the US apparently trying to encourage alternatives to US financial domination—as well as stimulate fast-growing interest in BRICS and new ways of organizing economies.

Advice to politicians, do not throw not try to steal food from large animals with teeth and claws. You might end up being dessert.

Today, you—Vlad’— announced a peace plan for the Ukraine—what is being called Istanbul Plus-- basically, an extension of the plan that Ukrainians already agreed to in Istanbul back in 2022-- and then reneged on .

It's pretty simple. Ukraine must honor the independence of Donbass and Lugansk and their democratic initiatives, along with the votes of the oblasts of Kherson and Zaporozhya, to join the Russian Federation. Ukraine must return to democratic governance.

Political organizations advocating Nazi war neo-Nazi ideologies must be banned and the ethnic rights of minorities protected. Ukraine must pledge never to join NATO. It must be neutral, nonnuclear . It must give up its claim to Crimea.

Russia offers an immediate cease-fire and a a peaceful and protected withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from occupied Donbass and Lugansk and other ethnically Russian-dominant areas. The negotiations can then begin—if the Western Ukrainians can provide someone to negotiate, was some kind of legitimacy. which right now would be the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament.

There is nothing really new in this proposal. As I said, it's Istanbul revisited—with a dash of Minsk— and a sprinkling of current realities on the battlefield!

But why now"?

Why do you announce this now-- when you know I'm working on my special article – knowing that I will have to take the time to respond?

Also….

Why now – when you know – and have said as much -- that the West and the Zelinski dictatorship will never allow it?

Very obviously the proposal will be rejected and Russian troops will have to keep on killing Ukrainians, village by village.

In the Pacific war, the American strategy was called "island hopping"-- hopping from one strategic island to another, closing in on the main islands of the Japanese archipelago. The Americans were slowly strangling the Japanese – cutting off supplies-- so the Emperor would realize that defeat was inevitable and surrender without the Americans having to mount a bloodied invasion.

Russian strategy is "village hopping".

The Russians are taking a village at a time in occupied southern Ukraine, avoiding major cities where possible. Also, a village at a time east of the Dnieper, so far ignoring big cities like Kharkov and Kiev and Dnipro, except for air strikes on military infrastructure.

They may cross the Dnieper if necessary. "If necessary" because, by the time they will be positioned to strike into Western Ukraine proper, the Ukrainians will be lacking supplies and electricity and the will to fight. They will seethe growth and economic success of Russia and the corresponding decline of Europe. With Russia, they have a future. With the West, only more misery.

When there was no hope, the Japanese surrendered unconditionally. The Ukrainians may well do the same.

The Japanese surrendered unconditionally. The Ukrainians will too.

The Russians will offer them referendums-- insisting upon a democratic process—and banning extremist, antidemocratic groups such as the neo-Nazis—who would try to subvert the process but, by this time, will have mostly fled t anyway, knowing they will be welcome in the US and Canada, having embezzled large amounts of money from the Ukrainian state. Rich “refugees” always get a positive reception.

Russia could offer a referendum for the entirety of Western Ukraine all at once—but more likely are multiple referendums, oblast by oblast – taking into account the democratic needs of regions occupied by minorities, including Hungarians and Romanians and others-- not to mention the Galatians themselves.

How do you think Odessa will vote given the abuses endured under neo-Nazi control, including the famous Odessa massacre and subsequent suppression?

One way or another, the result will be a new Ukraine— an integral part of the Russian world.

The West of course will insist that such referendums are illegitimate— just as they did with previous referendums—even though they would comply with international law . You are a lawyer, Vlad. You know how to do this stuff. Pay no attention. The Americans don't do law— they do lawfare.

For you the timing of this “peace plan” is just right.

There is timing in everything. Timing in strategy cannot be mastered without a great deal of practice. Miyamoto Musashi

Not so good for me, of course.

Timing

I suddenly get the answer to why you are presenting this proposal now – even though it is not really new and will be rejected.

The US is committed to its war with Russia— recently signing a 10 year security agreement with Zelinski at the G-7 conference in Italy— which he attended despite Ukraine not being a G-7 member—and despite the probability of that security agreement being ratified by Congress is roughly zero.

This and so many other actions and reactions indicate that the US is "stuck" at a cusp—unable to adapt to the new age we are now entering, in which the financialized civilizations of the neoliberal, neocolonial European /American model are anachronisms— dinosaurs eating everything greedily, unaware of impending doom. “What's that that huge chunk of rock hurtling towards the earth”. “Dunno— but these newly evolved little mammals are delicious”.

The mammals survived. they became you and me. The dinosaurs died or became birds or Microsoft.

Your peace proposal was naturally timed as a message in advance of the coming NATO summit this summer. NATO is also redundant and an anachronism, formed to defend against the threat of a USSR which no longer exists! And was never really a threat in the first place.

Russia and China are establishing themselves as rational actors – not just rational but principled. In a world challenged by climate change, overpopulation, new diseases, and dwindling resources, every society must have an equal say-- their different points of view represented. Advances in transportation and information technology means that however different, we are all connected and to survive, we must cooperate.

No country can dominate as the US seeks to do. No country can exercise what I call "extraterritorial" governance.

The US has no principles—only slogans. It is irrational-- either narcissistic or psychopathic – take your pick! Like the dinosaurs — big, unwieldy, with a huge appetite, no brain.

Joe Biden is the perfect symbol of the modern US of A. An old man who remembers little—has learned nothing. Stumbling into a night, neither good nor right. Same as his country!

I understand Vlad’ Buy me a coffee.

So I guess I understand what you're trying to do Vlad. The timing is not so good for me….but we're friends right! And Ichi says hello!

Ichi likes Putin

I know that you first tried to subscribe to my Substack page, but the Substack API wouldn't let you! Then you tried to buy me a coffee --but the site wouldn't accept your credit card!

Never mind— it's the thought that counts. Buy me a coffee when you can.

But. if you know somebody who wants to encourage and support me-- please tell them to click here to buy me a coffee! They can also get on the mailing list for my next special article (if you would just let me finish it!)

Of course, I will email it to you anyway. My love to your dogs and cats!