FAFO America

Bye bye American pie

It’s Sunday here in Tokyo But the news is hard to ignore.

It appears that the Americans managed to rescue its downed pilot. It also seems that Iran was baiting them to come get him. And, if that was the case, the Iranians were successful.

US losses.

F-15 Strike Eagle - 1

A-10 Thunderbolt II - 1

HC-130J Combat King II - 2

MQ-9 Reaper - 2

Hermes 900 - 1

UH-60 Black Hawk - 2

MH-6 Little Bird - 2

The F15 was downed by what Western sources say was s Sayyad-4B missile, fired from the Bavar-373 air defense system.

But wait!

According to Trump and CENTCOM weren’t all those defense systems destroyed?

The A10 was apparently hit over the Strait probably by a Project 358 loitering missile.

There are various reports about the C-130s with the Iranians saying they blew them up and the Americans saying they did it .

The Americans say there were not casualties on their side but 100s of Iranians killed. The Iranians disagree .

What actually matters however is

• the US does not have air supremacy — not even air superiority over Iranian airspace

• the US got its ass kicked

• the US operation cost an estimated $1 billion

• the US will have to dig into its remaining supply of standoff missiles

• “boots on the ground” will be very costly

• the US is at least disingenuous about casualties.

• the Department of War should have listen to its Generals instead of firing them.

Wreckage of C130 and helicopter. Nobody got hurt says the military?

War with China might have to be put off.

• The US military campaign has consumed more than 1,000 JASSM-ER missiles in the first four weeks of the war.

• Out of a pre-war inventory of approximately 2,300 JASSM-ER missiles, only about 425 are estimated to remain available globally, with roughly another 75 considered unserviceable.

• The Pentagon has issued orders to move missiles from other regional stockpiles, including the Pacific, to US Central Command bases and the UK’s Fairford base to sustain the fight.

• Lockheed Martin’s scheduled production rate for 2026 is 396 units, although it can be scaled up to 860. Replacing the expended inventory will take several years/

Do you see a pattern emerging here?

FAFO.

• High-growth sectors are struggling; major “Magnificent Seven” companies like Microsoft and Tesla are on track for quarterly declines exceeding 20% due to rising interest rate fears. Will the AI Bubble burst?

• Crude has spiked as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Prices surged toward $110-$113 per barrel following recent escalations, representing a 38% increase from pre-war levels.

• Investors are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve may have to delay or cancel planned interest rate cuts to combat rising prices.

Yup…Stagflation.

But Trump and family are getting richer .

Russia?

I have been neglecting Russia.

You might think not much is happening. But, in fact a LOT is happening. Please remember that Russia is not at war with Ukraine— it is at war with the EU, NATO and the UK.

People have a lot of questions. Like : why don’t the Russians blow the bridges on the Dnieper? There are good reasons for that - although not necessarily the reasons that the Media offer. I am working on that.

“There are two means of refuge from the misery of life: music and cats.” Albert Einstein

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