Good for the Gander

Main Points:

The Pacific Fleet has already conducted a comprehensive analysis of maritime traffic in the Asia-Pacific region.

Russian naval intelligence claims to have tracked over 1,000 ships moving near the South Kuril Strait, identifying exactly 26 UK-linked vessels operating in their immediate vicinity. They have mapped out their exact cargo, routes, and true beneficial ownership.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

On June 14, the British intercepted and seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker named Smyrtos in the English Channel. The predawn operation was ordered directly by Prime Minister Keir Starmer .

The British Armed Forces intercepted and seized the oil tanker MV Smyrtos in the English Channel on 14 June 2026 as part of the Russian shadow fleet.

It was the first UK capture of a shadow fleet vessel. Captain Pant was charged by the Crown Prosecution Service with delivering prohibited oil from Russia to a third country.

During initial court appearances. Defense counsel stated that Pant was merely acting as the master of the vessel and following orders.

There are no legal precedents for the UK action—but when have British courts paid much attention to legality or justice?

Vladimir Putin has taken some time to react, but he chose the right moment when he visited the Kuriles.

We see that the authorities of some countries, in violation of International Maritime Law, are attempting to restrict the peaceful movement of vessels belonging to our economic operators, and recently even thought of seizing our vessels and selling the property they stole from us. This, of course, is nothing less than piracy and robbery,”

He warned of further actions.

We will be forced to respond in kind ; And not necessarily in the waters where attacks on our ships and vessels are planned, but where we ourselves deem it necessary and appropriate, anywhere, including within the Pacific Fleet’s area of ​​responsibility.

Dmitry Medvedev summed it up succinctly.

Western European dogs are barking furiously about the so-called Russian shadow fleet. Let’s figure out what it’s all about.

This refers to ordinary merchant vessels that fly a non-Russian flag but carry out shipping operations in our interests. Such a flag is usually referred to as a “flag of convenience” or “favourable flag.”

This is a system whereby a vessel is registered in a country other than its owner’s country to save on taxes and regulations. These include Panama, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, the Bahamas, Belize, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Cyprus, Malta, and the Seychelles.

Of course, European authorities have no right to detain such vessels, either under the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea or under national law. This is pure arbitrariness.

But one important conclusion follows from this: the vast majority of Western European vessels also fly flags of convenience.

So what does this mean? Therefore, guided by a symmetrical approach (which is fair), Russia has the right to attack any merchant vessel of an enemy country, whether in our own or neutral waters, if there is sufficient suspicion that it is carrying cargo for the enemy. That is, any cargo!

And there are many such vessels. Our Armed Forces are capable of dramatically expanding their operations beyond the Black Sea basin!

This is exactly what the Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Fleet reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today.

As it so happens, at least 50% of US cargo is transported on ships flying “flags of convenience” specifically Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands. That is a conservative estimate. It is probably a LOT more.

Approximately 70% to 75% of all UK international ocean borne cargo is shipped under flags of convenience (FOC), the term that the West prefers for use for its “shadow” fleets. Because the global shipping market is heavily consolidated around open registries, the United Kingdom relies almost entirely on foreign-flagged ships to handle its £957 billion annual maritime trade.

The British are, as usual, pushing the limits and should expect asymmetric retaliation of some kind. The Lion is now a squeaking mouse.

British-made drones are now being used to strike targets civilian targets in Russia

In April, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced it would supply Ukraine tens of thousands of drones, including long-range strike devices, in its biggest ever package.

The MoD said its support for Ukraine is “unwavering” and would stand by its ally “until it wins”. A spokesperson said: “We are committed to providing the equipment Ukraine needs to defend itself against Putin’s illegal invasion.

Japan is also pushing the limits.

One must remember that Putin is a lawyer. He likes doing things by the book — but naturally thinks “asymmetrically”.

Russia intends to use the West’s own legal logic against it. Because British companies use third-country registries (such as Panama or the Marshall Islands) to move cargo, these ships constitute a “Western shadow fleet”.

Matching the exact same language used by the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency, Russia will assert the right to “inspect and detain” FOC ships under the guise of security or sanctions enforcement. I am sure that it can think up some imaginative sanctions. Seriously — you can sanction anything.

When the UK seized the Smyrtos, they utilized Article 110 of the UNCLOS, exploiting the fact that the vessel had lost its registry flag and was technically “stateless.”

The Russian Navy will find British-owned ships that have paperwork discrepancies, lack proper international maritime insurance, or are utilizing flags of convenience to justify boarding them in international waters.

Does this risk escalation?

No. The UK’s navy is better for the bathtub than the open seas.

A forced boarding or seizure of a UK owned ship in the Pacific, would not result in a direct military response from the UK. Nor I doubt from Japan, which doesn’t have the capability nor from a US licking its wounds from Iran.

AND — a blockade of Russian ports, for example, would risk confrontation with the Chinese but not likely to happen.

Did mention the North Koreans? Russia has few friends in Europe but Asia?

Another matter.

Major installations like the Rybachiy/Vilyuchinsk submarine complex on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the headquarters in Vladivostok are protected by multilayered air defense systems including the S-400 and Pantsir.

The approaches to these bases, through the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands, are guarded by mobile ground-based Bastion and Bal coastal missile systems. These create an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) barrier to deter carrier strike groups . In addition, each Yasen M class submarine in the Pacific fleet carries 32 hypersonic missiles.

Russian bases are not nearly as vulnerable as US bases in Japan.

The US and Japan would talk and squawk but just walk.

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