Ifs and Buts in the Middle East
And everywhere else
Israel has violated the “ceasefire” now several time since it began on the 28th— violations I suggested would occur — which is why I called it an “Easefire” .
The Israelis do not intend to “cease” violence in Lebanon, just tone it down a bit and regroup. The Lebanese Army is hardly capable of opposing them and the Israelis will do what they please in — and to — South Lebanon.
But#1
This is the Era of “If”….. Trump is the icon.
It is also the Age of “But”…. I guess he is the icon of that too!
Right now, the Middle East is all Ifs and Buts. Meaning no one really knows where it’s going.
“If” only things were different. “But” they are not.
Hezbollah understands this.
Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said in an interview with MTV News on 28 November that the resistance will not “sit and watch” as Israel continues to violate the ceasefire. He added that “we are in an experiment now,” signaling that it is time to determine whether or not the Lebanese army is capable of repelling Israel and stopping its violations.
He stressed that there is no issue between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), adding that Hezbollah welcomes its deployment across all of south Lebanon.
He vowed that the resistance will confront Israel should it decide to go to war against Lebanon again.
While the Israelis divert resources to other “fronts” and take a breather — Hezbollah replenishes theirs .
One can only pity the Lebanese Army which now has to take the brunt of Israeli aggression. The Lebanese government wanted that “ceasefire”—not doubt promised something by the Americans. Now it pays the price, once again validating Hezbollah’s role in Lebanese society.
Israel has shifted attention to Syria for the time being, with what appears to be a CIA / Mossad coordinated operation using an extremist jihadist proxy army which has advanced to Aleppo, occupying parts of the city. The Syrian Army has large withdrawn and is regrouping to prevent a repeat of the urban warfare that mostly destroyed the city and killed so many of its people —perhaps 30,000 — years ago.
But this is not 2012. It is not 2016.
“If” the Jihadist forces do not run they are doomed. “But” even if they so, they’re doomed anyway.
Strategically speaking, this proxy "offensive" is a grave mistake on the part of both the Americans and the Israelis.
Simplicius thinks that the Americans are supporting this move, hoping to divert Russian resources from the Ukraine to Syria to counter it! Larry Johnson thinks that Simplicius is is wrong – and I agree. Why Simplicius thinks the Russians can’t fight in Ukraine and Syria at the same time, I don’t understand. After all, Ukraine is a multifront war with the Russians deploying at least 5 armies - without breaking a sweat or a fart or whatever the expression is.
The Israelis— of course— would like to create a buffer zone in the South— an extension of the Golan. “If” no one is looking or paying attention. “But”, of course, everyone is.
But #2
The Syrian army is much stronger than before – better organized, trained and equipped. The Russians in Syria have emphasized the Syrians learning to to do it on their own, with a significant degree of autonomy.
In addition, the Iranians have pledged to do their part.
Over the last 24 hours, one after another, Iranian cargo planes have been landing at the Russian Khmeimim airbase base in Syria which is impervious to American or Israeli attack, well protected by IAD systems, which proved their worth recently— shooting down a couple of Israeli missiles that inadvertently crossed the base airpace to try and reach arms depots on the other side – not that either the Russians or the Israelis are talking about about that.
With the "Easefire", Hezbollah can also divert more resources to help in Syria. Hezbollah fighters are there too.
In addition, the Kurds, the SDF—Syrian Democratic Force— are supporting Damascus this time, although nominally under the protection of the Americans.
That causes a problem for Turkey, which has has forces in Syria in Idlib protecting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly Al Nusra—at odds with the Kurds, who have female fighters who are cute unlike their guys who are ugly and bearded.
The Assad government has been courting the Kurds for a long time —as preferable to the Turks, of course. And, the Kurds, of course, can see that the American time in Syria is almost over. Which opens up space for a deal with Damascus for autonomy in a federal system similar to Russia’s.
But #3
The attacks in Syria undermined the tacit agreement the Russians had with the Israelis – that the Russians would turn a blind eye to limited Israeli aggression against Iranian assets in Syria as long as it remained “limited!” Sort of like the deals they had with the Americans and Turkey and so on. “If” everyone played nice, something would work out in the end. “But”, of course, that is now very, very unlikely.
There are after all about a million Russians in Israel-- and Russia has what you might call a pro-semitic history.. But pro Semitism is not the same as pro-Zionism – just as anti-Zionism is not the same as anti-Semitism! And things have changed since 2016.
These attacks in Syria rebound against Israel —turning the Russian public against it-- proxies or not — the Russians remember the Chechen war. There is substantial criticism in the Russian commentariat about Russia "abandoning" Syria and being too "soft" on Israel. “Oh, where is Prigozhin when we need him!”That puts pressure on Putin to take a stand.
In addition, “if” he doesn’t do that, his roles in the Middle East as a mediator would be prejudiced by inaction.
But #4
Going back to Simplicius, Russia has more than enough resources to do what it must in Syria — an army of 1.5 million, ramped up industrial production of all kinds of weapons, and a 30% greater military budget – paid for by weakening the ruble, which yields dividends in an export oriented economy.
As ever, recent western sanctions have only strengthened the Russian economy which now operates outside of the Western banking system.
“If” Russia wants to up the ante, it can.
“But” ….
The Jihadists attack cannot be maintained. It does not have the manpower. Nor the materiel, armor, artillery, air power. And no way of resupplying its forces in Aleppo without interdiction.
Russian and Syrian airstrikes have already decimated jihadist forces, killing at least 400 or 500.
Once the Syrians and the Kurds mount their counteroffensive, the jihadists must try to flee. Many will die on the road. And the jihadist safe havens in Idlib may not remain safe any longer. The Americans will try to stay out of it, stealing oil which they give to the Turks or to Iraqi Kurds who give it to Israel.
“But” the balance in Syria has been upset.
So, the Axis of Resistance may receive upgraded weapons from Iran and/or Hezbollah to attack the jihadists— which they can then use to attack American bases— or the Turks.
Why not?
The Iranians gave Hezbollah Fatah missiles which have larger payloads and are harder to shoot down then drones proving highly effective against Israel.
What is the US going to do? ‘If’ it conducts trikes against Iraq – it will further antagonize he Iraqis-- and moving them even closer to Iran – and China – and Russia?
“But” they will probably do it anyway. .
“Ifs” and “buts”. Start a war with Iran? Destroy the US and Western economies? Dumb —”but” dumber/
But #5
What will Trump do? He not only has a big butt — he is a big “but”.
On the one hand, he reportedly never wanted American forces in Syria in the first place-- and would have withdrawn them if not for the intransigence of the “Deep State”. Or so we are told. On the other hand, he is a Zionist surrounded by ultra Zionists and neocons of the Republican variety, Or so we are told.
But, but, but….
Best thing for him is to stand back – and let the Syrians, Russians, Hezbollah, Iran, and the Iraqi resistance deal with this. Then blame it all on Joe.
That would be common sense. But Trump is a US president
Most people are basically irrational – responding to emotion, and cultural assumptions. American and European politicians are people too —but when they assume power, they mutate into something else with their un-reason drive by short-term political expediency and alienation from the real world.
If, if, if…
But, but, but….
Chappy!
Chappy is due next Saturday. Then begins the One Month Trial. I have to navigate the Shelter rules.
Chappy should be fine, and the Shelter will be happy he finds a home —since few people will adopt a a cat with a difficult to eradicate tape worm.
And Ichi ? He really needs a friend. We all need friends.
Good Post!
"The attacks in Syria undermined the tacit agreement the Russians had with the Israelis..."
Now that really is funny! The Russian decision-makers are realists, and the odds that they trust the Israelis are similar to the odds of dealing a hand of 12 aces from a regular pack. The Israelis are the only people who are even less trustworthy than the Americans - because they deem all Gentiles subhuman, and who feels it necessary to deal honestly with a chicken or a beetle?