In the eye of the storm

February is boring. TV seems to be all reruns and remakes. And the Ukraine Show….it seems like there is a writer’s strike. Nothing much seems to be happening. Same-old, same-old.

So if you felt that the SMO series is not really worth watching right now, you might be right.

Bernhard at Moon of Alabama shares that opinion.

He writes.

Over the last month the war in Ukraine has become less intense.

The number of daily losses on the Ukrainian side, as provided by the Russia Ministry of Defense, has decreased from an average 2,200 per day in early November 2024 to an average of 1,600 per day in late January 2025

Ukraine has acknowledged that the level of violence has decreased (edited machine translation):

Over the past seven days, the number of assault operations of the Russian army on the entire front line has been significantly reduced.

This is evidenced by the data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the military telegram channel Deep State.

Just yesterday, 80 attacks by Russians were recorded, while at the peak in December, this figure had reached 292.

Deep State provided statistics on Russian attacks by month (daily average):

• November - 5,205 (174);

• December - 6,247 (202);

• January - 5,087 (164);

• 4 days of February - 381 (95)

The reasons for the decrease are unknown. It may well be weather related as a relatively warm winter has caused a prolonged muddy season which makes assaults over open land more difficult.

Another reason might be ongoing negotiations.

One of my favorite SMO analysts is Karl Sanchez, whose substack site you must definitely visit . He posted a comment on this article on MoA as Karlof1.

,,,,thinner lines yield fewer casualties. The advances past the Oskol River in Kharkov oblast North of Kupyansk are impressive. Toretsk and Chasov Yar urban areas are almost completely Russian with little combat aside from mopping up operations and likely rotations of troops. The next urban area to be invested is Pokrovsk.

Exactly. Keeping in mind that Pokrovsk is a key site of great importance.

It should be noted that beyond these urban areas the road net almost vanishes with only a few major arterials and very few secondary roads to advance along and move supplies.

So, while the overall intensity of combat has abated, IMO it's temporary and will resume when the Russians return to advancing beyond their newly liberated urban areas.

IMO, the potential for negotiations has no affect on the SMO's political goals and related plans by Russia's General Staff.

In other words, the Russians are consolidating recent gains, making use of what used to be Ukrainian supply routes —a “road net” —to build up their forces and prepare for better weather which allow them to take advantage of their superiority in drones, armour and air power.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are increasingly limited in their ability to reinforce their positions weapons, ammunition, fuel and other supplies, with no real “net” to fall back on — the few roads available expose convoys to interdiction by airpower or the new wire-guided drones. Kursk is a cauldron — killing fields.

In addition, the Kiev Regime is short of manpower, and its recruits —or rather, conscripts —lack training and motivation They are not dying in greater numbers right now only because they surrender or desert at the first opportunity.

As for “negotiations”, I agree with Karl that they are irrelevant.

He quotes (deputy foreign minister) Ryabkov who says :

The first step towards normalizing bilateral relations, meaning negotiations based on the principles of mutual respect and equality, should be taken by the United States. We are open to dialogue, ready to negotiate in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities "on the ground" and our national interests , predetermined by history and geography. So the decisions and choice are up to Trump and his team.

Keywords: mutual respect and equality. The recent sanctions on Russian are indications of neither.

Also notice the use of the term “dialog”-- which just means back and forth – in this case “framed” not only by “realities on the ground” but importantly by “history and geography” .

Karl refers to the “Outlaw US Empire”-- which is exactly what the US is. It cannot be trusted. You cannot let it get the drop on you.

That said, Russia is winning and the West has few real options. For reasons I discussed in my last post, Trump cannot accept Russia winning against Ukraine because his psychology sees that as the US losing. “Mutual respect” and “equality” are the preconditions for “win-win” negotiations but that is not the way his mind works. Win-lose only.

Read the news. It is all about how many casualties Russia is suffering, lquoting Zelensky’s absurd claims.

We now know that the Ukrainian media have been directly funded by the US through USAID and NED to supply propaganda in line with US directives. More recently, it seems that applies also to the US media as well! Even Politico!

That surprised Alexander Mercouris. As a media person, it surprised me not at all.

Not to worry— USAID and NED are no more — they are going to be reconstituted with new names and Trump loyalists directly under the direction of the Deep State. None of this silly stuff about food packages for kids or whatever — just old fashioned media manipulation, brainwashing and subversion.

Russia therefore must keep going until Western Ukraine surrenders unconditionally, allowing Russia or a proxy like Belarus, to carry out referenda in the Western oblasts, offering them various choices – while at the same time canceling all Ukraine debt and nationalizing all foreign ownership in Ukraine – Monsanto, Blackrock and others.-- and carrying out war crimes trials. What would you choose— more death and destruction and corruption — or a comfortable future through alliance with one of the fastest growing economies in the world, who share the same language and culture and have a sense of honor..

In any case, as Brian Berletic points out, the American focus is on economic or military war with China .Trump is very good at distractions.

But now we are in the eye of the storm.

Chappy Complains

Julian never listens to me. I told him nobody is interested in the Ukraine anymore and he should write about cats. Honestly, he is sooooooooooo stubborn. Maybe I spoil him too much, I bring him my favorite toy every morning. Did I mention he snores! I let him pet me anyway.

He is definitely a work in progress. I have to train him a little at a time. And bribe him with small treats.

Help me keep up my work, with Ichi ,as we rescue Julian. Buy us coffee! CLICK HERE.