Iran Launches Nuclear Attack!

Just kiddin'

I grew up in newspaper offices and I watched editors agonize over titles and headlines. There were a few rules.

• Don’t exaggerate

• Keep it simple.

• State the facts.

• Never use question marks

KENNEDY SHOT DEAD” / “PRESIDENT KENNEDY IS ASSASSINATED” (November 22, 1963)”

MEN WALK ON MOON” / “THE EAGLE HAS LANDED” (July 20, 1969)”

DR. KING SLAIN IN MEMPHIS” (April 5, 1968)”

Headlines or Head LI ies

Dr Bob and disagree about all sorts of things and I often start off saying, “No, no, that can’t be”. Then I end up agreeing at least on main points.

So today Dr.Bob wrote to me….

Is just embarrassing. It reveals the infantilism of the audience (and the desire of the NSAM to play to it for money and fame):

Larry Johnson: The Strait of Hormuz Is a Ticking Time Bomb – The U.S. & Iran Just THREW DOWN [This tiptoeing around shit is “throwing down”?]

Col. Jacques Baud: Trump Just Pulled His Last Card… And Israel Is in SHAMBLES [Israel looks like Gaza and Southern Lebanon now?]

Mark Sleboda. Oreshniks Unleashed: Retribution Strike Leaves Kiev in Flames [All of Kiev is in flames?]

Patrick Henningsen: Iran’s Missile Inflicts MASSIVE Damage to US Airbase, Trump FURIOUS | [Massive? They used nukes?]

KJ Noh: Iran SMASHES Trump’s Threat, Drones RAIN Over Gulf as World War 3 Blows Up [It’s raining drones? Really? There must be billions of them.]

Sigh. Does anyone really fall for this shit? How is this any different from the MSM clickbait bullshit? Oh, how I long for the days of yellow journalism when headlines were measured and serious.

Each of these is a podcast interview or discussion The headlines / main titles reflect perspective of the interviewer — not necessarily that of the interviewee. The problem is that exaggerated titles prejudice content.

Let us keep in mind that most podcasts are also businesses — and can be very profitable.

Sonar 21

Larry Johnston entitled his post today:

Does Iran Have a Nuke? Well Placed Source Says, “Yes”

That text of the post nd then a series of online discussions on the possibility of drastic, if no apocalyptical conclusion to war it the Middle East. They featured:

• the “Judge”

• Nima

• Mario Nawfal

• Sulaiman Ahmed (British commenter)

• Pepe Escobar

• Zulfiqar Ali

A shotgun blast of NSAM (Not So Alternative Media) speculation, imagination,rumor and belief.

Most of these discussions had their origins in rumors. highly publicized, yet unverified, revolving around stories that Iran either has a nuclear device or will have one soon. Gossip built on previous speculation.

The Old Rumor

A previous viral social media rumor claimed an Iranian official had said Pakistan would launch a nuclear strike on Israel if Israel nuked Tehran. The Pakistani Mediator Ishaq Dar called the claim “false, fabricated, and highly irresponsible,” stating that Pakistan’s nuclear policy is purely defensive.

The New Rumor.

The new rumor is that in his meeting with Marco Rubio in Washington, Dar warned of an of an imminent Iranian nuclear detonation . Nope. Pakistan was trying to leverage a peace deal, open shipping lanes, and de-escalate tensions regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Peace talk. Not war talk.

Why now?

I guess people have been getting bored.

That’s the trouble with slow wars. Same old, same old And, of course, the Talking Heads keep on saying the same stuff over and over again. Also: same old, same old. — This is the Age of Geopolitical Reruns.

For me listening to these people was like listening to a bunch of guys drinking beer, everyone with a slightly different take on something – trying to sound like they are smart and original —but also everyone in agreement because, hey, you don’t want to disturb the vibes. Still every now and again somebody would say something interesting — or at least something that made me question.

Unlike Dr. Bob I wasn’t irritated. I didn’t expect real analysis or insight from these guys—rather contradictions.

The nuclear weapon story is typical.

In this, Larry and Pepe talk with Zufilgar Ali, who claims to have “well-placed” Pakistani “sources” who know the inner counsel of the IRGC and the new Supreme Leader as to nuclear weapons, saying that Iran plans to withdraw from the NPT and set off a nuclear device developed with Russian technology and expertise. Zulfigar is a financial guy who lives in California.

Notice the title.

Betteridge's Law of Headlines. coined by journalist Ian Betteridge in 2009, states that any headline ending in a question mark can almost always be answered with the word "no". When editors have the facts to prove a claim, they state it as a fact, but when they lack proof or confidence in a story, they frame it as a question

Pass the beer.

There are no probing questions. Rather, Zulfigar’s role seems to be to corroborate Johnson’s long standing opinion that Iran should get nukes from an objective American military point of view and also I suspect from a personal point of view. Zulfigar has no proof for any his assertions.Rather, I think he is trying to promote his core business Ibex Technology.

As a gun owner who also teaches weapons safety, Johnson believes that gun ownership is a deterrent.

If you are a country, I guess it’s nukes that stop home invasion.

In the US, LJ might have a point.

But Iran is not America.

Qur’an (2:190), “Fight in the way of Allah those who fight you but do not transgress.” “Transgression” (i’tida) would be launching an attack with the deliberate intent to massacre a population or wipe out a town is classified as a severe violation of divine law and a major sin.

This is why Iran’s strikes on Israeli cities have all targeted military sites and not the general population, despite Iran having the capability of, for example, destroying air raid shelters and whole towns. Contrast that to American and Israeli military doctrine, which targets everyone, with double and triple tap strikes just to be sure.

The fatwa against nuclear weapons is no longer legally or religiously binding—but the New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has neither reaffirmed nor revoked his father’s ruling. This silence does not mean that the fatwa is dead – it is, after all, decades old and rooted in the Qur’anic code. But it is not alive either.

It is true that in April 2025, the official government newspaper, Iran, published an opinion piece arguing that the fatwa only bans the deployment and use of nuclear weapons, not their production or storage for deterrence purposes. But this was just an opinion piece which also ignored the contradiction of creating weapons that cannot be used!

It also publicized senior IRGC commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pressuring” the leadership to abandon religious restrictions and openly pursue a nuclear deterrent. And Iranian lawmakers began reviewing withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—although that is something that Iran’s main allies—China and Russia do not favor.

Iran can do PR too, stressing rational policy, taking into account Western attitudes, gaining international support.

Obviously, this kind of thing strengthen Iran’s bargaining position. But it doesn’t mean that Iran really wants or need nuclear weapons, which they would never use. Why waste money on a nuclear program when you can invest in weapons that will allow you to win , not just destroy— missiles, drones, radars, and air defense technologies.

Going back to Larry and Pepe’s talk with Zulfigar, Mr. Z undermines his own credibility by saying that Russia has offered to help Iran create a nuclear device for detonation (not that Iran couldn’t do that on its own) .

As a responsible party and one of the depositaries of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

Russia strictly adheres to both its letter and spirit. We believe that the current complex international environment calls for enhanced multilateral efforts to create conditions for further progress toward a world free of nuclear weapons, while strictly upholding the principle of equal and indivisible security.

We believe that all states that faithfully fulfill their obligations under the Treaty have an unquestionable right to benefit from peaceful uses of nuclear energy without undue restrictions. In this regard, we reaffirm that Russia, as a leader in the field of nuclear energy, stands ready to continue developing constructive cooperation with all interested states that are parties to the Treaty.

I like podcasts. I like Larry and all the rest.

And…if you want a nuke, just order one on Amazon. 1/12 scale!

I also LOVE cat videos. I learn as much about geopolitics from cats as I do from some podcasters. If you want to understand human beings — remember they are animals.

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