My sensing tells me: Either next Friday the Fleets and others of Trump will try to blockade the passage of Iranian Oil from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Or he will let the moment pass. With many consequences.
If he acts, Persia will either block all Oil-transports to 'The West', or initiate a Regional War too, destroying as much of Israel and US hardware and Bases as possible, aided by the 'Resistance'.
That will terminate Israel. When it uses the Samson-Option (Nukes) Iran will (75% chance) use at least one Nuke too, on Dimona.
Cassandra
PS time is for me not predictable, so allow days of time.
It is more likely that Iran will institute the kind of blockade that the Houthis did in the Bab el Mendeb straits: to stop US, UK and Israeli linked shipping - but to allow ships from Russia and China (et al) to pass unhindered.
Any piracy from private firms or acts of war from the US or UK will be met with force.
This is a situation that Russia and China have been trying to avoid for years: an attack by the US that means that the US has bitten off more than it can chew.
This isn't just about logistics; Alastair Crooke spoke about the fact that the US warships in the area can only hold around 400 Tomahawk missiles. For a country the size of Iran, and with Iran's defences, that is clearly not enough. What he did not say was that when these had been dispatched, the ships would need to re-load in a harbour of their choice. In other words, they cannot remain on station and be re-supplied.
Okay, that is logistics, right?
But the real problem comes when an aircraft carrier is sunk. This will put the US stock markets into full panic - and the result will be a collapse of the US economy - and the fallout for the Global South that is not as well protected. That is the real danger that the Russians and Chinese have been trying to avoid for so long - their problem is that the US is just too gun-happy for its own good.
Solid analysis on asymmetric leverage through oil disruption. The logistics point is crucial but often overlooked when ppl talk about power projection. I worked briefly in supply chain and even domestic ops get messy, let alone maintaining tempo 7000 miles out. The economic warfare angle probaly scares markets more than kinetic options.
Just look at the French trying to get their tanks to Romania: Germany would not let them through, not because they weren't friends, but because the vehicles used to transport the tanks were too heavy for German motorway bridges. This, by the way, was one way the Germans could hamper the US in moving their military equipment around, their stuff is very heavy!
As to the economic side, this from my main comment "But the real problem comes when an aircraft carrier is sunk. This will put the US stock markets into full panic - and the result will be a collapse of the US economy - and the fallout for the Global South that is not as well protected. That is the real danger that the Russians and Chinese have been trying to avoid for so long - their problem is that the US is just too gun-happy for its own good. "
What is worrying is that, with US aggression on Iran, we are reaching the point of non-return, a very dangerous point, which risks not just local/regional confrontation between the Axis of Resistance and USrael, but a GLOBAL war between the Axis of Resistance on one side and USrael and all its NATO/EU/Western allies, as many Shia clerics around the world are warning: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-about-to-close-strait-of-hormutz
Many are speaking about the American public utterly adverse to dead soldiers coming home in the thousands . Considering how Trump is treating the citizens of Minnesota to a cold blooded lawless murder while many soldiers enlisted for military benefits like health care , free education .
So any dead soldiers will be unacceptable .
It’s Irans only option unfortunately as the Empires insane genocidal abuse will continue forever.
The only solution is War as Russia has realized to seek resolve as
Diplomacy means nothing to the genocidal lawless in control of the USA Government.
Have you come across the views of Shahid Bolsen? He takes a similar position to Simon Dixon and thinks that what he terms the Global Capitalist Class have agreed with elements within Iran , that their system of governance will change and moderate. that the Iranians have already agreed to cease supporting their proxies and allies in the region.so to align In some new arrangement in the Middle East and that the GCC are the ones making the decisions not Trump. He latest video on You Tube is titled Iran a controlled demolition.He is an interesting speaker but doles he represents SA & UAE or his independent.I do not know.
If Trump/Bibi strike Iran, then I'm hoping Russia finishes off Ukraine and takes Odessa, and China walks in and takes Taiwan - fair exchange!
There is only the George Washington in Japan at the moment, it's an ideal time to strike Taiwan...
As to Odessa, that is a much more complicated issue and won't be affected by events in Iran.
My sensing tells me: Either next Friday the Fleets and others of Trump will try to blockade the passage of Iranian Oil from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Or he will let the moment pass. With many consequences.
If he acts, Persia will either block all Oil-transports to 'The West', or initiate a Regional War too, destroying as much of Israel and US hardware and Bases as possible, aided by the 'Resistance'.
That will terminate Israel. When it uses the Samson-Option (Nukes) Iran will (75% chance) use at least one Nuke too, on Dimona.
Cassandra
PS time is for me not predictable, so allow days of time.
It is more likely that Iran will institute the kind of blockade that the Houthis did in the Bab el Mendeb straits: to stop US, UK and Israeli linked shipping - but to allow ships from Russia and China (et al) to pass unhindered.
Any piracy from private firms or acts of war from the US or UK will be met with force.
Yes, you could be right.
I called it 'The West', because they are all accomplices anyway. But maybe Iran will not hinder those that never used or approved force to Iran.
And when 'Piracy' or things like that are used Iran will immediately turn that into a total Regional War.
Cassandra
This is a situation that Russia and China have been trying to avoid for years: an attack by the US that means that the US has bitten off more than it can chew.
This isn't just about logistics; Alastair Crooke spoke about the fact that the US warships in the area can only hold around 400 Tomahawk missiles. For a country the size of Iran, and with Iran's defences, that is clearly not enough. What he did not say was that when these had been dispatched, the ships would need to re-load in a harbour of their choice. In other words, they cannot remain on station and be re-supplied.
Okay, that is logistics, right?
But the real problem comes when an aircraft carrier is sunk. This will put the US stock markets into full panic - and the result will be a collapse of the US economy - and the fallout for the Global South that is not as well protected. That is the real danger that the Russians and Chinese have been trying to avoid for so long - their problem is that the US is just too gun-happy for its own good.
Pending headline:
Armada heading home after Trump claims Iran "capitulated"
:)))) awesome
Solid analysis on asymmetric leverage through oil disruption. The logistics point is crucial but often overlooked when ppl talk about power projection. I worked briefly in supply chain and even domestic ops get messy, let alone maintaining tempo 7000 miles out. The economic warfare angle probaly scares markets more than kinetic options.
Just look at the French trying to get their tanks to Romania: Germany would not let them through, not because they weren't friends, but because the vehicles used to transport the tanks were too heavy for German motorway bridges. This, by the way, was one way the Germans could hamper the US in moving their military equipment around, their stuff is very heavy!
As to the economic side, this from my main comment "But the real problem comes when an aircraft carrier is sunk. This will put the US stock markets into full panic - and the result will be a collapse of the US economy - and the fallout for the Global South that is not as well protected. That is the real danger that the Russians and Chinese have been trying to avoid for so long - their problem is that the US is just too gun-happy for its own good. "
Most Heavy Military units will go from Harbours (Like Rotterdam) and then by train to the east. Lighter units can go by roads.
Cassandra
If Trump/Bibi strike Iran, then I'm hoping Russia finishes off Ukraine and takes Odessa, and China walks in and takes Taiwan - fair exchange!
What is worrying is that, with US aggression on Iran, we are reaching the point of non-return, a very dangerous point, which risks not just local/regional confrontation between the Axis of Resistance and USrael, but a GLOBAL war between the Axis of Resistance on one side and USrael and all its NATO/EU/Western allies, as many Shia clerics around the world are warning: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-about-to-close-strait-of-hormutz
Many are speaking about the American public utterly adverse to dead soldiers coming home in the thousands . Considering how Trump is treating the citizens of Minnesota to a cold blooded lawless murder while many soldiers enlisted for military benefits like health care , free education .
So any dead soldiers will be unacceptable .
It’s Irans only option unfortunately as the Empires insane genocidal abuse will continue forever.
The only solution is War as Russia has realized to seek resolve as
Diplomacy means nothing to the genocidal lawless in control of the USA Government.
Hopefully the loss of a few F-35 aircraft corrals further reckless military action. Americans are not tempered to that probability.
The loss of an aircraft carrier is *unspeakable*.
Have you come across the views of Shahid Bolsen? He takes a similar position to Simon Dixon and thinks that what he terms the Global Capitalist Class have agreed with elements within Iran , that their system of governance will change and moderate. that the Iranians have already agreed to cease supporting their proxies and allies in the region.so to align In some new arrangement in the Middle East and that the GCC are the ones making the decisions not Trump. He latest video on You Tube is titled Iran a controlled demolition.He is an interesting speaker but doles he represents SA & UAE or his independent.I do not know.