Iran strikes

I had planned to write an analysis of Mercouris’ comments on President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Iranian response to attacks on Lebanon.

It had seemed to me that Mercouris regards Pezeshkian as a “liberal” or “moderate”, which he is, in terms of domestic politics – but that does not mean that Iranian foreign policy will accommodate American/ Israeli interests.

One must remember that the Supreme Commander in Iran is Khamenei.

Mercouris suggested that Pezeshkian put off the promised retaliation against Israel to avoid scuppering a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and Lebanon—this based on the Iranian President’s own statements on this subject widely reported in the press. For example:

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said the promises of cease-fire made by Americans and Europeans if Iran did not respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh were “false.”

Now, Mercouris says he thinks Pezeshkian feels bitter – betrayed—that he had wanted to compromise with the Americans and Europeans—and ended up…well… compromised. As a result of such “moderation” , Mercouris says poor Masoud’s days as President are numbered.

Despite my respect for Mercouris, I myself doubted that Pezeshkian – or anyone in a position of authority in Iran, would have believed the Americans. When was the last time, the Americans told the truth even about the time of day?

A better analysis comes from Mohammed Marandi, whose line of reasoning is similar to mine.

Rather, the Iranians were playing the PR game – trying to look “rational” for that huge number of countries beyond American dominion, the ones coming together as BRICS. .

Iran knows the Israelis want war – and that war is unavoidable—no matter what they do or not do.

They are also aware of the reach of the American media empire—its power and also its weaknesses. It’s like the Titanic. And it just struck an ice berg called Gaza.

The Iranians therefore must most dance the dance —with drunken partners—who want a fight and cannot hear the music.

The BRICS summit is coming.

The Iranians therefore were buying time, putting off retaliation —getting up to speed with Russia air defenses and EW, building their stock of advanced weapons, hoping that when they were ready the Israelis would escalate and give them an excuse for a missile strike such as the one that has just taken place— which would be a step up from the previous strike with second and third tier weapons, using much more advanced missiles --180 of them—but not quite enough of a step to justify a bona fide war.

The longer the buildup, the weaker Israel and the US.

The Israelis are predictable. And have been all along.

Predictability

As I have predicted, the Israelis have no “strategy”— only escalation.

The US Democrats aid and abet — they will now try even harder to support Zionist blood lust, competing with Trump and Vance who accuse Biden and Harris of being weak (while at the same time saying they could prevent war — although it has already started.)

If Trump and Vance take power — the war may well be over —or almost over — in the New Year— both in the ME and Ukraine. They can then blame everything on Democrats.

Mercouris is right about one thing-- the Israelis cannot fight a long war.

Nor does the over-extended US want to commit to a major war which could interrupt oil supplies from the ME and sink their plans of economic recovery.

Still war will continue to progress step by step. It’s Masada redux.

All reports indicate that the Israeli incursion in Southern Lebanon was costly. A full-scale invasion would be a major debacle.

Israel can launch attacks on Iran and, with American help, they will hit some targets. and do lots of damage. The infuriated Iranians will have thousands of missiles left—and can lend-lease some of their better ones to Hezbollah and the Houthis. Keep in mind geography.

.

The Israelis will undoubted attack Iranian energy facilities such as oil rigs to hurt Iran economically — but Iran, of course, could cut off oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz which would cause oil prices to soar and hurt the US economy, which hurts Israel.

Under threat therefore are the ME monarchies—almost all of them oil states.

Jordan, which is not an oil state has already made the mistake of coming in on the side of the Israelis. So the days of that monarchy are numbered—with populist rebellions already brewing —which would add a new front for Israel to worry about.

Another problem for the Allies of Evil (the US and Israel) is clear Russian support for Iran. Many of Iran’s AD systems will be manned by Russians. If the US or Israeli kill Russian operators, they then face Russian retaliation. Yes, the Russians have bunker busting hypersonic missiles.

In any case, as I have indicated, a major strike on Iran would be followed by not hundreds of missiles hitting Israel - but potentially a thousand or more (Iran had over 3000 in 2021) targeting infrastructure — oil storage, the power grid — and especially nuclear sites. The US doesn’t want that. It doesn’t want more immigrants, even Israeli ones.

In the meantime, the MSM will continue to pretend that the Israelis are winning, until the last one flees for New York.

Pizza

I confess. I LOVE….

a. chocolate

b.) pizza

c.) coffee

However, I am on a high nutrition low calorie diet.

I had chocolate ice cream with a chocolate brownie with chocolate syrup with chocolate whip cream a while back. I prayed for forgiveness to about a dozen gods. But there was no forgiveness.

Pizza? Pretty soon I will do a pizza night . Then I guess I have to whip myself bloody.

But if we don’t sin occasionally how do we know what’s good?

Also —pizza is love.

Anyway, coffee is fine. So please buy Ichi, me, and Chappy’s tape worm coffee. Click here.