Is Spring Kiev's End time?

Things will happen

"Time itself is being, and all being is time" Dogen

In Japan everyone loves Cherry Blossom time, which is usually just a week or ten days long, and often spoiled by rain. Japan also has a lot of disasters in the Spring. Earthquakes. tsunamis, mudslides. floods….and your girlfriend or boyfriend finds someone new.

In the Ukraine, everyone is looking to Spring, some with hope. Some to cope.

The SVO is progressing very well for the Russians, as they prepare for a Spring Offensive. They continue attriting UAF forces, as the Ukrainians move their dwindling reserves around the contact line trying to plug the holes in their defensive grid.

Before long, the Russians will take Kramatorsk and the rest of Donetsk, freeing up forces to speed up operations in the North in Sumy and the road to Kiev and in the South, Zaporizhzhie and Kherson, allowing them to cut off the Black Sea Coast. It will not be easy and not likely to start until the Spring,

Bit the UAF—which has lost anywhere between one million and two million KIA depending on who you talk to – is a spent force, its numbers dwindling by about 40,000 a month. I should mention that one way to estimate Ukrainian losses is to look at the numbers they cite for Russian losses, which always must be equal to their own, no matter how many times less! Ukrainian media talk about 40,000 Russian losses a month, when the likelihood is less than 1000.

NATO armed the UAF with its best and most advanced weapons systems which were soundly defeated by the Russians, as William Schryver points out. There is nothing that NATO can give them now which will turn the tide.

Russia won’t fall for a ceasefire for “elections”, which under the Ukrainian constitution could not be valid unless held without the participation of Ukrainian voters in “occupied Ukraine”. There are no Ukrainian voters there of course, since these oblasts are now part of Russia. So no election would be legitimate, even if Zelensky were to permit democratic opposition, which he won’t do.

Thus the war goes on with maximum lethality. In the near future, in addition to “putting pressure” on the Black Sea the Russians will eventually put pressure on Kiev itself, from the East (as I have suggested_ but also from the south from the direction of Dnipro. . We will once again seem rapid depopulation of Kiev .

The Russian aim, however, is not territory —not to intimidate the public– it is too destroy the Ukrainian military – completely.

At some point before the end of this year, there will be really no viable solution for the Ukrainians but unconditional surrender as the Japanese did.

In the Japanese case, the prewar elites administered according to American directives, aware that they could be “purged” from politics or even tried for war crimes anytime. It was 7 years until the American occupation ended,but in some sense, it continued unofficial after that until this day. Japan is still a vassal state despite cultural and linguistic differences.

Ukrainians and Russians, however, share history, culture and language.

The Russians have played nice with Trump by pretending to “negotiate”. Now Dmitriev is in further iin the background and Lavrov even more in the foreground and his is a hard line, emphasizing good old-fashioned diplomacy – under international law. .

A test will be the US oil embargo on Cuba.

Russia has pledged oil shipments, which means sending an oil tanker. Unless the US gives assurances of free passage, Russia would send a military escort, which could be a missile armed surface vessel or submarine escort or both, plus arming the tanker itself.

It would be clear notice that any attempt to interfere with the tanker would be regarded as an act of war.

Admiral Gorshkov frigates carry hypersonic zircon antiship missiles against which the Americans have no defense, as well as Kalibr cruise missiles.

Of course, the Russians would not make their ultimatum public. Trump would pretend to be generous permitting a Russian “humanitarian” mission since the MidTerms are coming soon. Shooting wars do not electoral success make.

He would insist it was a gesture to get the Russians to continue talks, even though the “talks” will not stop a Russian offensive from happening.

Trump is 90% PR. Delusions and illusions. His presidency is a four year TV show. Hope there isn’t a writer’s strike.

Nothing is as it seems…

For example, the attack on Venezuela was in effect a victory for Venezuela.

Maduro in a US prison is an embarrassment.

The Trump ‘plan” to make Venezuela a major player in the oil market again was actually Maduro’s plan, realized now under the Rodriguez’s with capital investors, not Trump, calling the shots.

It will take time to rebuild Venezuelan infrastructure and a lot of money —mostly foreign — and by the time the country can once again become a major player, global economics will be much different, there will be a new government in the US, which will be much weaker than before with Caracas stronger.

In the meantime, the Chavistas are strengthening their base and Maduro remains President of Venezuela.

If Russia supplies Cuba with oil, Mexico will be next.

Where can the US go but down.

Feral Cats

Chappy was a real feral cat. When brought into the Shelter, he hissed and spat. The lady sy the shelter warned me he would be a challenge. “He will never be a ‘cuddle cat” she said.

Well, now he sleeps under the blankets and cuddles all the time. It took a long time but it was worth it.

I wish someone had rescued me when I was younger! LOL

Come to think of it — did I rescue him —or did he rescue me?\

Please help us here at News Forensics. We do feral analysis.

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