Is Turkiye a Turkey?

No. but Erdogan is.

In many ways both Iran and Russia were lucky that Syria collapsed as it did, when it did.

While Western propaganda trumpets the fall of Assad's regime as a triumph for the US, Syria, and Turkiye - it is anything but.

It is at best a Pyrrhic victory that has resulted in chaos — with the kind of unpredictable outcome you can expect from that —as I suggested in my last post about “chaos theory”. Those who create chaos rarely benefit from it in the long term because —by definition— such disorder generates too many variables to control.

This is the case with today’s Syria and with all Western-manufactured crises.

Now in Syria we have HTS – and various tribal groups under its umbrella—as the nominal “government”.

Yesterday’s head chopper is today’s GQ cover boy, only marginally in control of his forces. Still….

If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs… “If” Rudyard Kipling

You have at least two Kurdish groups. There is the YPG, to which Turkiye is hostile — and which is supported by the Americans. The MSM loves them . No mention of their socialist ideals, however. By they look good on magazine covers and the internet— so that’s all that matters.

There is the ENK, which is allied with Iraqi Kurds and tolerated by the Turks but you will find it harder to find photos of them! Not that “woke” I guess. Probably just nasty guys guns who pick their noses.

Just keep in mind that in geopolitics, appearance is everything. Today, Alex Mercouris was marvelling at how long Justin Trudeau had stayed in power despite being a card-carrying imbecile. Duhhhhhhhhhhh…..he has good hair, Alex.

Vanity Fair loves him….

In Syria right now, appearances are also important. There’s an In-Group and the Out-Group who end up dead.

The Alawites, Christians and Syrian Shi’a as well as moderate Sunnis and Sufis who supported the Assad regime and have now had to go underground or flee— or pretend to be HTS supporters..

You have mercenaries and terrorists from all over Central Asia financed variously by the CIA and the Turks but really beholden to no one.

You have the Turks hoping to drive the YPG into Iraq where they are not wanted.

You have the Americans trying to control Syria resources in the Eastーoil and wheat Then, of course the Israelis are trying to expand their territory north.

The Russians still maintain their bases in Latakia– it seems with the encouragement of HTS, who see them as a counterbalance to all the other competing groups ensuring a little flexibility in dealing with their enemies.

So far HTS seems to preventing American supported terrorist groups from attacking Russia bases or local supply routes.

The Russians don’t need to steal either oil or land— they have lots of both.

Also, the Russians have proven over and over again they keep their word – unlike the Americans, Turks, and of course Israelis. But, they haven’t promised HTS anything — nor are likely to.

Why does HTS like them? Respect. Joulani has pointed referred to his Russia as the “second most powerful military in the world”.

Who is first? Most people think the US— but it is now third. China is first since in every war games scenario simulating conflict between China and the US, the US loses.

The war in Syria ended fast because Assad’s forces did not fight—HTS won by default and it knows it. As do all the other players. So it needs a wee bit of leverage, somehow.

Oh…chaos! How I love thee! Remember Hesiod says Chaos was the first thing to come into being.

But now a new war is set to begin. And “chaos” means a new set of defaults which you cannot know until later.

This war is one that the Iraqi Resistance will take advantage of to attack Israel, just to add a twist to events. Israel, of course, is a proxy for the US.

There is no way of knowing at this point, how this new war will progress—but one thing you do know is that the Russians and Iranians can just sit back and watch the geopolitical soap-opera. (Or is it a sitcom?)

The Americans and Israelis are allies—but no friends of Turkiye and Erdogan.

The Americans are vulnerable with only a few thousand troops in Syria, although they can draw on substantial air assets mostly in Iraq and elsewhere. The Israelis are already overextended.

No matter, this will be a proxy war.

As a result, Turkiye and the Americans will avoid coming to blows directly . Unless….?

Chaos Theory!?

In any case, the Russians and Iranians have cut their losses. And Hezbollah and Yemen can benefit from Israeli and American distraction.

Comment from Ichi

Chappy and I are doing our best to keep Julian working. Human beings are hard to train. Easily distracted. Chaotic.

But rest assured he will get his “Special Article” finished soon. We will make sure.

Mind you, we are not confident you will like the subject matter— which is about…y’know…people —a boring subject —and not cats— much more interesting.

We are also working on teaching Julian to use a litter box.

In the meantime, buy us some coffee. Julian doesn’t deserve it - but we do! Click HERE.

PS.

I am running for Prime Minister of Canada.