Israel's Big Mistake

If you have been following my posts, you will know that I have argued that the Mainstream Media and a lot of Alt Media were incorrect in their initial assessments of the Israeli strike on Iran and their insistence that the IDF devastated Iran’s air defense capability using F35 “stealth” aircraft and precision targeted missiles. Shades of shock & awe!

The media were similarly wrong about US claims to have “obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear capabilities with a B2 strike.

In what is now called “the 12 Day War” , there was no real evidence of Israeli aircraft in the skies over Iran. There is in fact no evidence of B2s either.!

Most of the initial damage on Day One was a result of sabotage and ATGM attacks carried out by terrorists in a massive one-off operation which had been planned years in advance and could not be easily repeated because the scale of operation required coordinated activities by an entire network – which, as in all such large operations, exposed the operatives later.

Iran recovered from the initial strike very fast.

If IDF aircraft penetrated Iranian airspace, it was only briefly, perhaps in the north.

It is clear that, as in the previous Israeli attack on Iran, Iranian radar could track Israel’s stealth aircraft from a distance. The Bavar 373 has an effective range of probably about 300 kilometers,

Of course, the Bavar system can be degraded by jamming and EW…still….it is at least as good as the Chinese HQ9—perhaps better.

So Israel used a lot of drones, some of which, as we have seen from the Ukraine experience will always get through. But, as Ukraine”s attacks on Russia demonstrated too, drones by themselves are insufficient to inflict any kind of strategic damage, especially when the targets are protected by multi-layer defense systems.

Of course, the IDF used standoff weapons of various kinds, but again many of these were interceptable, although the ones that got through, such as the $5 million LORA quasi ballistic missile has a 400 km range. It has a warhead good enough to make a satisfying bang but there appear to be only one or two cases of it doing that.

All in all, Day One of the 12 Day War went to Israel. But every other day went to Iran.

The “B2” strike?

Sorry Sy Hersh, you need new sources. The bombs that were dropped very clearly did not penetrate to the underground chambers as you suggest– if they were dropped at all – which we really don’t know,

Iran claims to able to monitor B2s

In my opinion, the strike was theater, as Alastair Crooke has said. The idea was to provide Trump with a made-up win for the folks back home, so he could get an intermission and save Israel. In the meantime, Iran would prepare for the next round— which won’t be long—it’s on a roll.

It will take Israel a much longer time to get back to where it was.

This video backs me up.

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