Istanbul, Bob and the Bot
Should we say Istan-bullshit.?
Your takeaways from the Istanbul talks.
First, Medinsky’s report ….
Dear colleagues,
Direct negotiations with the Ukrainian side, organized at the initiative of the president of Russia, have just concluded. Overall, we are satisfied with the outcome and are ready to continue contacts.
Here is what was agreed:
First – in the coming days, a large-scale prisoner exchange will take place, 1,000 for 1,000 people.
Second – the Ukrainian side requested direct talks between the heads of state, and we have taken this request into account.
And third – we agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire, outlining it in detail. Once these visions are presented, it has been mutually agreed that it would be appropriate to continue our negotiations.
Medinsky was born in Ukraine.
Peskov, from X
A meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky is “possible as a result of the work done by both delegations and upon reaching specific agreements.”
“Such a meeting is possible as a result of the two sides’ work and reaching certain agreements. But when it comes to signing documents, for us it remains a fundamental issue who exactly from the Ukrainian side will be signing them,” Peskov was quoted as saying.
He added that the first step is to fulfill the agreements reached in Istanbul — including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange.
So what exactly happened?
As I predicted in previous posts, nothing happened .
There were no agreements about anything except a prisoner exchange, which is a good deal for Russia since it will result in most of the Russian POWs being held by Ukraine being released, since it has little more than a thousand Russian prisoners.
On the other hand Russia as literally thousands of Ukrainian POWs, some of whom don't want to return to Ukraine at all. A thousand is a drop in the bucket.
The Ukrainians of course demanded that Putin talked directly to Zelensky – that's that direct talks between "heads of states" thing.
Russians said politely they would think about it, which is a nice way of saying no.
Peskov clarified this—obliquely—as good PR people do — saying that such meetings were “possible”, once agreements had been made but with a caveat, "a fundamental issue (is) who exactly from the Ukrainian side will be signing them.”
The agreements must be legally binding and for them to be legally binding they have to be signed by a constitutionally recognized head of state, which of course Zelensky is not!
In other words, the Russians are not compromising on anything at all!
If and when Zelensky runs for president in a democratic election and is selected by the Ukrainian people, then he will be recognized as the legitimate head of the Ukrainian state, but it is only then, under those conditions, that he can sign an agreement.
The issue of war crimes is not mentioned.
However, at present free and fair elections are not possible in Ukraine, so the issue is moot.
In other words, all these talks have done is demonstrate Russian willingness to follow legal norms under international law. They establish Russia as rational and open to discussion and dialogue, which enhances Russia’s image on the global state even as the US’s declines.
Ukraine, NATO, Europe, and the US look increasingly irrational and manipulative with with only an overweening sense of self-importance.
In the meantime, the Ukrainians keep on losing – in all sectors--,the Russians keep on advancing and are taking control of major logistics routes. :
As expected, after breaking through AFU defenses in the Bogatyr area, the Russian forces began to develop their offensive along the N-15 highway, one of the key areas of operational importance. Movement along this
axis offers several advantages at once: first, it makes it possible to draw back some AFU forces from the western defense sector of Pokrovsk, and second, it opens direct access to the administrative border of the DPR and Dnepropetrovsk region.
If the momentum is maintained and the pressure continues, the westward advance along the N-15 will create, for the first time in the entire conflict, a real prospect of a close approach to the Dnepropetrovsk region. (Slavyangrad).
The Ukraine has its head in a a vise. And the vise is tightening.
Bob vs the Bot.
My coffeebuyer Bob has added to the polemic that I posted the other day – a debate with a DeepSeek ‘bot.
I should mention that I do not agree with everything Bob writes.
Of course! I don’t agree with everything that I write myself-- which is why I rewrite so much. LOL,
But I can discuss these things with Bob. He likes dialog and dialectic, as I do. One learns from disagreement more than from agreement.
He has been teaching the “bot” to like this Socratic process too.
His dialog, with his (slightly revised) polemic attached is long – over 5000 words so I am making it available to coffee
buyers since it is a bit lengthy for a Substack post.
I have found his work with LLMs immensely useful in learning how to use them as tools.
You cannot just ask an LLM a question – you have to engage it and think critically. But once you learn to do that it can have many benefits. As usual with “special articles” I will make it available in DOCX, PDF, HTML, EPUB and MOBI.
From this article I can see that the Russians are proceeding masterfully as usual, learning as they go along on all fronts, including the propaganda front where they were slow to get out of the gate but are now gaining momentum. I predict they will win the economic, military, propaganda, soft power, diplomatic and moral high ground war as well. Sustainable power grows organically from a moral base. Morality does not grow from parasitically acquired power, which is not sustainable. The trick in the long game is to prevent a nuclear weapon confrontation while winning the morality game, the declining "West" has centuries invested in their Nazi business model and will not go quietly into the night, plus they are psychotic. But I wonder if when new superpowers fully emerge unchallenged if they can maintain their humility when possessing the ring of power. I don't think so. Centralized great power is sure to corrupt, later if not sooner. Governments should be, but are not, like good parents. They are not deliberately socially engineering their citizens to learn and desire to progress without them. Yes some are progressive and benevolent as we are seeing with Russia, China and Iran, but are they planting seeds for the more distant future to decentralize power into the hands of an organically evolving middle class and away from government management. I don't see it, analysts focus on good governance, but never on the evolution towards no governance, the topic is not explored. I read somewhere once that 39% of Russia's economy is underground (how can that be measured which is not seen?). If that is true I mark that as a good thing. Underground people are self reliant. If Russia is tolerating that then maybe it is the seed of something, time will tell. The hoi polloi tendency to desire self reliance might be increasing but it can never become systematically entrenched in a civilization without top down leadership design. Every great enterprise is ultimately the long shadow of one man with vision and capacity, and those types of men prefer never to be known (however sometimes they have no choice and have to come out of the closet). Big changes in the world are in play. Will they propel this predatory world into a diffused, sustainable balance of peaceful, moral and progressive power or will it go through more power corrupts Nazi shit cycles? Stay tuned for another exciting season of As The World Turns to find out, if you're still alive by then.
Excellent article! Your comment “Ukraine, NATO, Europe, and the US look increasingly irrational and manipulative with with only an overweening sense of self-importance.” is correct on the surface, but misses a deeper point. Remember the letter that was leaked from Rothschild to one of the power elite (Charles of England?) … stating that if the war in Ukraine is lost the New World Order / Great Reset will also be lost. Their backs are up against the wall and they are all in for WW3 since they are out of time. The Western Empire (tm) is crumbling, deeply in debt, and being left behind by the rest of the world. I don’t think they are irrational; I think they are desperate and scared to death.