My analysis of the effects of tariffs is based on an historical analysis of the effects of tariffs with extensive documentation . This study covers tariffs in the 20th Century- all aspects globally .
"Hoover, Mellon, Trump, and Musk all believe that you just have to get out of the way and let a few smart rich people do their thing."
Let's not leave the rest of our Keepers out of this, the ones immediately preceding Trump in office and the ones that ushered in 80 straight years of fascism hegemony, and continuing, after WWII. Our fascist West is far bigger, more systematic, more intentionally designed, and more dangerous than a couple of presidential terms.
….1939. After 3 years of civil war in Spain (Ukraine) Europe doubles down on continental war. Gold is fleeing London and Switzerland for New York. Dissent, propaganda, censure ship, banning political parties, arresting leaders, cancelling elections. Not 1929. 1939.
I'm quoting Vox Day - "Now, most people don’t know anything about economics, particularly journalists and politicians. They know even less about economic history, which is why you’re going to see a few people attempting to look knowledgeable by referencing the Smoot-Hawley tariff, on which the stupid and the uninformed blame the Great Depression. Of course, I addressed this in my 2009 book on The Return of the Great Depression:
For many years, it was supposed that the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 played a major role in the economic contraction of the Great Depression. As more economists are gradually coming to realize, this was unlikely the case for several reasons. First, the 15.5 percent annual decline in exports from 1929 to 1933 was less precipitous than the pre-tariff 18.3 percent decline from 1920 to 1922. Second, because the amount of imports also fell, the net effect of the $328 million reduction in the balance of trade on the economy amounted to only 0.3 percent of 1929 GDP. Third, the balance of trade turned negative and by 1940 had increased to nearly ten times the size of the 1929 positive balance while the economy was growing.
The Pomp Letter has begun educating himself on tariffs and economic history, and has concluded that the mainstream hysteria is based on a foundation of ignorance.
Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel imports in March 2018. His reasoning was related to national security, along with a desire to get US steel mills operating at 80% capacity or higher.
Naturally, the critics of tariffs would argue that steel prices should have increased by 25% or more post-tariff, but as you can see in this chart — steel prices increased through the summer (steel prices had already been skyrocketing pre-tariff too) and then began falling substantially. US steel prices eventually fell to price levels much lower than pre-tariff prices.
Why did the price of US steel decrease? Domestic manufacturing of steel increased by nearly 10% for the 2 years post-tariffs.
“The USGS data show that Trump’s tariffs may have helped goose domestic steel production in the first few years after they were implemented. Production rose to 86.6 million metric tons in 2018 and 87.8 million metric tons in 2019, before cratering in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Production bounced back in 2021, as American steel mills produced 85.8 million metric tons of raw steel that year.”
This means the 2018 tariffs worked — US manufacturing of steel increased and US steel prices dropped lower.
Obviously, the pandemic created significant issues for manufacturing and industrial companies, but US steel prices still sit right now at nearly the same level as they were pre-tariff. Most importantly, steel prices have not kept up with consumer inflation since 2018.
So now you have three concrete examples from the 2018 tariffs that show the critics were wrong. The tariffs led to lower prices, increased American manufacturing, more government revenue, and the creation of American jobs. Also, US inflation (CPI) fell from 2.1% in January 2018 to 1.6% in January 2019, so the tariffs didn’t lead to higher inflation either.
The USA will win any tariff war because it has been losing the free trade war for decades. America has literally nothing to lose in this regard." - read the rest at -
Obviously, with tariffs certain sectors may indeed benefit but looking at the entire economy?
Tax Foundation:
We estimate the 2018-2019 trade war tariffs imposed by Trump and retained by Biden reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.
I might be a little reticent in relying on The Tax Foundation or 'Academic or governmental studies' - at least according to Vox Day, Paul Craig Roberts and several others from this search in DaLimbraw Library on TARIFFS - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/search?q=Tariffs&updated-max=2023-03-04T11:42:00-08:00&max-results=20&by-date=true&m=1 - it's a fairly comprehensive list of headnotes to articles which at least mention the subject. Some are quite extensive and draw in other factors to complete the trade picture. It is arranged by date - latest first - which you can flip to 'by relevance'. Like history, economics depends a lot on who writes it - there's ALWAYS a narrative - true or not!
There is no historical evidence that WWII cme about as a result of the depression in 1929, unless of course you believe that it gave rise to Adolf Hitler and the rest is history...
Sorry, but the actual diplomatic histories of the Inter-War Period tell completely different story...
I didn't say it was a failure of diplomacy. What I said was that the diplomatic histories of this period clearly demonstrate what happened and why.
Poland for example was all gung-ho to attack and invade Germany as early as 1936.
Georges Bonet of France, its foreign minister up through 1939, desperately tried to convince the French president not to to be swayed by Britain's intentions to go to war with Germany, dragging France long with it.
WWII was a war created by Poland, FDR, Britain, and Soviet Russia. The Germans and the Austrians were attempting to avert such a disaster. However, the constant Polish deprivations against their German minorities as well as the constant attacks on the German populace in Danzig, eventually forced The Third Reich to react to stop the carnage.
Once that happened, what was primarily a local dispute was turned into WWII by FDR, Britain, and the USSR...
Economics is NOT science, but rather politics with a few unproveable statistics . Amazing that the same usual suspects that are telling us Trump and Putin are bad, war in Ukraine is good, are telling us open borders are good and tariffs are bad. You are wrong about tariffs in the depression. European tariffs created jobs; US lost jobs because we were the analogue of todays China, i.e. low cost labor and newer manufacturing processes. The WEF has worked tirelessly to undermine the US economy. Most of the worlds billionaires got there through arbitrage that requires open borders. We were a mercantile economy until Nixon opened China and really started the destruction of the american labor pool. Trump warned us in the 80's. When JFK was POTUS, the NYSE valuation was 95% US; now, it is more foreign than American; the often discussed disconnect between Wall street and main street and the primary reason the rich keep getting richer at the expense of the poor. Both China and Europe protect their industries through internal mechanisms while getting around our controls by way of Canada and Mexico. The WTO only looks at x borders tariffs. Working class Americans are beginning to figure this out. You seem to be buying into a line of reason by a lot of people you otherwise disparage. Why?
seriously: google or (in my case duckduck) "Chinese companies in Mexico and Canada" and watch the hundreds (maybe thousands) of returns. Most of these of from major news sources. Massive investments in manufacture, but numerouse commentaries on x border exports from Mexico exceed its production capacity in that particular product, e.g. steel, suggesting that it is a form of product laundering. When China builds a factory in the US (lol) it sells its output in the US market; when it build is factory in Canada or the US its output is also the US market through NAFTA.
Good on you Julian ,,,, a few trolls seem unable to differentiate between tariffs and tariff wars.....
.... The one who claimed Nazi germany and Hitler wanted peace gave me good laugh.
Russia defeated the Nazis in WWII ,,, The yanks and Brit's (along with the Catholic church) saved them,,,, allowing Nazi refugees to embed themselves all around the world.
The Canadians were keener than most to take them and their recent standing ovation in their parliament for a former SS member was not a mistake.....
A Superior exhibition and analysis. Thank you. Now all we have to do is wait and see it work out.
For me it is very simple. When Trump 2.0 makes 4 years without running wars or even supporting wars, i think something important has changed. It needs some time to spread over the whole of the US Policies, but the start looks good.
Now waiting if Trump & Co will evade the subtle pitfall set up by the puppets from the Monster in the City of London. And other plans to eliminate or destroy him. The Monster doesn't wear its name for nothing... And it is desperate. All its careful developed plans have failed. Russia should have been defeated and disintegrated by now. And Afghanistan, (in the Heartland) Kazakhstan (and Belarus) failed too. Those were to be part of, or a buffer around the new location for the Monster after Russia had been disintegrated by Ukraine and the Anglo-Zionist-Empire had been collapsed by its Debt bubble.
But first by Putin, then by Trump, all the plans failed. The Monster is seriously hurt by the continuing destruction of the US Deep State and in Panic, now its planned safe haven in the Heartland is not ready and Russia is not defeated yet.
But as you wisely said: When a Rat is in the corner, it becomes DANGEROUS... So we wait and see.
The western financial system ponzi scheme was destined for collapse prior to Trump 2.0.
Is Trump hastening it?
Is Trump positioning America to ride it out & take advantage coming out of it stronger than the rest of the west?
Is it America First Trump oligarchs breaking away from the globalist oligarch banking cartel- when the cartels primary asset of control- the western financial system- is at its weakest?
A new American Revolution seeking freedom from the globalist oligarch banking cartel?
You know, I did have an overwhelming sense of deja vu this year... And like Hoover, Trump will probably have huge camps of homeless people named after him as well: Hoovervilles meet Trumptowns.
My analysis of the effects of tariffs is based on an historical analysis of the effects of tariffs with extensive documentation . This study covers tariffs in the 20th Century- all aspects globally .
https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/jwilliamson/files/tariffs_dublin.pdf
"Hoover, Mellon, Trump, and Musk all believe that you just have to get out of the way and let a few smart rich people do their thing."
Let's not leave the rest of our Keepers out of this, the ones immediately preceding Trump in office and the ones that ushered in 80 straight years of fascism hegemony, and continuing, after WWII. Our fascist West is far bigger, more systematic, more intentionally designed, and more dangerous than a couple of presidential terms.
Captain Donald J. Trump is the perfect guy to lead the American Titanic, as it plunges into a death spiral towards the icy deep.
….1939. After 3 years of civil war in Spain (Ukraine) Europe doubles down on continental war. Gold is fleeing London and Switzerland for New York. Dissent, propaganda, censure ship, banning political parties, arresting leaders, cancelling elections. Not 1929. 1939.
Great analogy.
1939 is next year.
I'm quoting Vox Day - "Now, most people don’t know anything about economics, particularly journalists and politicians. They know even less about economic history, which is why you’re going to see a few people attempting to look knowledgeable by referencing the Smoot-Hawley tariff, on which the stupid and the uninformed blame the Great Depression. Of course, I addressed this in my 2009 book on The Return of the Great Depression:
For many years, it was supposed that the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 played a major role in the economic contraction of the Great Depression. As more economists are gradually coming to realize, this was unlikely the case for several reasons. First, the 15.5 percent annual decline in exports from 1929 to 1933 was less precipitous than the pre-tariff 18.3 percent decline from 1920 to 1922. Second, because the amount of imports also fell, the net effect of the $328 million reduction in the balance of trade on the economy amounted to only 0.3 percent of 1929 GDP. Third, the balance of trade turned negative and by 1940 had increased to nearly ten times the size of the 1929 positive balance while the economy was growing.
The Pomp Letter has begun educating himself on tariffs and economic history, and has concluded that the mainstream hysteria is based on a foundation of ignorance.
Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel imports in March 2018. His reasoning was related to national security, along with a desire to get US steel mills operating at 80% capacity or higher.
Naturally, the critics of tariffs would argue that steel prices should have increased by 25% or more post-tariff, but as you can see in this chart — steel prices increased through the summer (steel prices had already been skyrocketing pre-tariff too) and then began falling substantially. US steel prices eventually fell to price levels much lower than pre-tariff prices.
Why did the price of US steel decrease? Domestic manufacturing of steel increased by nearly 10% for the 2 years post-tariffs.
“The USGS data show that Trump’s tariffs may have helped goose domestic steel production in the first few years after they were implemented. Production rose to 86.6 million metric tons in 2018 and 87.8 million metric tons in 2019, before cratering in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Production bounced back in 2021, as American steel mills produced 85.8 million metric tons of raw steel that year.”
This means the 2018 tariffs worked — US manufacturing of steel increased and US steel prices dropped lower.
Obviously, the pandemic created significant issues for manufacturing and industrial companies, but US steel prices still sit right now at nearly the same level as they were pre-tariff. Most importantly, steel prices have not kept up with consumer inflation since 2018.
So now you have three concrete examples from the 2018 tariffs that show the critics were wrong. The tariffs led to lower prices, increased American manufacturing, more government revenue, and the creation of American jobs. Also, US inflation (CPI) fell from 2.1% in January 2018 to 1.6% in January 2019, so the tariffs didn’t lead to higher inflation either.
The USA will win any tariff war because it has been losing the free trade war for decades. America has literally nothing to lose in this regard." - read the rest at -
https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2025/02/did-no-one-take-econ-101-vox-popoli.html?m=0
Obviously, with tariffs certain sectors may indeed benefit but looking at the entire economy?
Tax Foundation:
We estimate the 2018-2019 trade war tariffs imposed by Trump and retained by Biden reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.
I might be a little reticent in relying on The Tax Foundation or 'Academic or governmental studies' - at least according to Vox Day, Paul Craig Roberts and several others from this search in DaLimbraw Library on TARIFFS - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/search?q=Tariffs&updated-max=2023-03-04T11:42:00-08:00&max-results=20&by-date=true&m=1 - it's a fairly comprehensive list of headnotes to articles which at least mention the subject. Some are quite extensive and draw in other factors to complete the trade picture. It is arranged by date - latest first - which you can flip to 'by relevance'. Like history, economics depends a lot on who writes it - there's ALWAYS a narrative - true or not!
🤣🤡🤣
There is no historical evidence that WWII cme about as a result of the depression in 1929, unless of course you believe that it gave rise to Adolf Hitler and the rest is history...
Sorry, but the actual diplomatic histories of the Inter-War Period tell completely different story...
Yes, that is the conventional explanation. "It was all a failure of diplomacy".
I didn't say it was a failure of diplomacy. What I said was that the diplomatic histories of this period clearly demonstrate what happened and why.
Poland for example was all gung-ho to attack and invade Germany as early as 1936.
Georges Bonet of France, its foreign minister up through 1939, desperately tried to convince the French president not to to be swayed by Britain's intentions to go to war with Germany, dragging France long with it.
WWII was a war created by Poland, FDR, Britain, and Soviet Russia. The Germans and the Austrians were attempting to avert such a disaster. However, the constant Polish deprivations against their German minorities as well as the constant attacks on the German populace in Danzig, eventually forced The Third Reich to react to stop the carnage.
Once that happened, what was primarily a local dispute was turned into WWII by FDR, Britain, and the USSR...
Economics is NOT science, but rather politics with a few unproveable statistics . Amazing that the same usual suspects that are telling us Trump and Putin are bad, war in Ukraine is good, are telling us open borders are good and tariffs are bad. You are wrong about tariffs in the depression. European tariffs created jobs; US lost jobs because we were the analogue of todays China, i.e. low cost labor and newer manufacturing processes. The WEF has worked tirelessly to undermine the US economy. Most of the worlds billionaires got there through arbitrage that requires open borders. We were a mercantile economy until Nixon opened China and really started the destruction of the american labor pool. Trump warned us in the 80's. When JFK was POTUS, the NYSE valuation was 95% US; now, it is more foreign than American; the often discussed disconnect between Wall street and main street and the primary reason the rich keep getting richer at the expense of the poor. Both China and Europe protect their industries through internal mechanisms while getting around our controls by way of Canada and Mexico. The WTO only looks at x borders tariffs. Working class Americans are beginning to figure this out. You seem to be buying into a line of reason by a lot of people you otherwise disparage. Why?
"Both China and Europe protect their industries through internal mechanisms while getting around our controls by way of Canada and Mexico." Source?
seriously: google or (in my case duckduck) "Chinese companies in Mexico and Canada" and watch the hundreds (maybe thousands) of returns. Most of these of from major news sources. Massive investments in manufacture, but numerouse commentaries on x border exports from Mexico exceed its production capacity in that particular product, e.g. steel, suggesting that it is a form of product laundering. When China builds a factory in the US (lol) it sells its output in the US market; when it build is factory in Canada or the US its output is also the US market through NAFTA.
I stand by my argument.
Good on you Julian ,,,, a few trolls seem unable to differentiate between tariffs and tariff wars.....
.... The one who claimed Nazi germany and Hitler wanted peace gave me good laugh.
Russia defeated the Nazis in WWII ,,, The yanks and Brit's (along with the Catholic church) saved them,,,, allowing Nazi refugees to embed themselves all around the world.
The Canadians were keener than most to take them and their recent standing ovation in their parliament for a former SS member was not a mistake.....
🤣🤡🤣
A Superior exhibition and analysis. Thank you. Now all we have to do is wait and see it work out.
For me it is very simple. When Trump 2.0 makes 4 years without running wars or even supporting wars, i think something important has changed. It needs some time to spread over the whole of the US Policies, but the start looks good.
Now waiting if Trump & Co will evade the subtle pitfall set up by the puppets from the Monster in the City of London. And other plans to eliminate or destroy him. The Monster doesn't wear its name for nothing... And it is desperate. All its careful developed plans have failed. Russia should have been defeated and disintegrated by now. And Afghanistan, (in the Heartland) Kazakhstan (and Belarus) failed too. Those were to be part of, or a buffer around the new location for the Monster after Russia had been disintegrated by Ukraine and the Anglo-Zionist-Empire had been collapsed by its Debt bubble.
But first by Putin, then by Trump, all the plans failed. The Monster is seriously hurt by the continuing destruction of the US Deep State and in Panic, now its planned safe haven in the Heartland is not ready and Russia is not defeated yet.
But as you wisely said: When a Rat is in the corner, it becomes DANGEROUS... So we wait and see.
Sander
PS: Heartland->https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Glb0tdpXIAAtg0C?format=jpg
Deep State destruction->https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Glf83lwWEAA5cPw?format=jpg
PPS. ' Who rules The Ukraine commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world. '
The western financial system ponzi scheme was destined for collapse prior to Trump 2.0.
Is Trump hastening it?
Is Trump positioning America to ride it out & take advantage coming out of it stronger than the rest of the west?
Is it America First Trump oligarchs breaking away from the globalist oligarch banking cartel- when the cartels primary asset of control- the western financial system- is at its weakest?
A new American Revolution seeking freedom from the globalist oligarch banking cartel?
Socio-political laxative. Good one.
You know, I did have an overwhelming sense of deja vu this year... And like Hoover, Trump will probably have huge camps of homeless people named after him as well: Hoovervilles meet Trumptowns.