Japan Sinking?

The Iran War is bringing national politics into focus worldwide as never before.

The Japanese Example

People think that Japan is very different from other countries in the G7. In fact, it is no more different than any other “liberal democracy”, every one of which has its own history and geography and special problems and culture.

It would seem that all “democracies” these days are really a ingle party state, as Japan is often accused of being. Are the democrats really different from the Republicans? In the UK, what is the difference between Labor and the Tories? In Canada, all four parties pretty much have the same values. “Liberal democracy” offers voters choices that are not choices at all. It doesn’t matter who you vote for – there are no fundamental changes. Government shares power with Business and the Bureaucracy. And the Justice System mostly rubberstamps injustice, “justice” being a commodity like any other.

Voters have no reasonable expectations – only hopes – that any given candidate would be “different”.

This same applies to Japan Inc. A wholly owned subsidiary of America Inc.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of course had a landslide victory recently. She’s “different”, say the media.

Only she isn’t.

Just another Japanese conservative, not “modern’ or “progressive”- but rather regressive and anti-feminist. She’s pro-American and anti-Chinese, which is unfortunate because the US has little to offer but military equipment that doesn’t meet Japanese needs and overpriced LNG and modular nuclear reactors a generation behind their Russian and Chinese equivalents.

But unfriendly policies has led to Chinese sanctions on a variety of advanced technology such as “dual use” electronics and materials that might be used in weapons, but also in AI where Japan lags..

Japan has pledged $550 billion in investments in the US starting this year. It is already the US’ top foreign investor with investments of $819 billion!

Japan is attempting to diversify of course. Canadian LNG is much cheaper, of course. And the ASEAN markets are promising. Japan was once considered a trusted partner in Asian markets but is increasingly seen as too much under the thumb of a very untrustworthy US. In addition, its technology is lagging and expensive.

Takaichi has tried to deflect, focusing on Japan’s low birthrate and high rates of the elderly.

Reducing birth costs removes a barrier, but it doesn’t create an incentive. It helps existing families struggle less, but there is no evidence to suggest it will raise the birthrate unless it’s paired with radical changes to housing costs and work-life balance. neither of which the rightwing of the LDP appears to understand..

For example, despite spending over $200 billion on subsidies and “baby bonuses” over 16 years, South Korea’s fertility rate has continued to drop, hitting a world-low of 0.72. When the “cost of living” and “work culture” are the primary stressors, cash isn’t enough.

Takaichi is popular now.

But the world is entering the new era. Japan must evolve to compete. And to do that it has to dump the US-Japan Security Treaty. And Sanae-San is not the person to do that, although she has refused to send the Japanese Navy to Hormuz — mainly because of strong opposition from the ministries. .

Takaichi has taken a hard line against Tehran, basically pro-American in tone and has said Trump is “the "only person who can bring peace". If this were 1939, she would be saying the same about Hitler. I suppose.

But Japan’s main source of energy is LNG. Sok Iran and Japan are negotiating transit of the Hormuz Strait. The question of the Hormuz “Yuan Toll’ has not been decided— so she would do well to watch her mouth.

I doubt she will.

Japans’ Iron Lady is Tofu.

Former PMs who started well and crashed.

Yukio Hatoyama

(2009–2010): Started with an approval rating above 70% after the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ended decades of LDP rule. His support plummeted to 20.7% within months, primarily due to his failure to fulfill a campaign promise to move the U.S. Futenma Air Base off Okinawa and a political funding scandal.

Naoto Kan

(2010–2011): Initially enjoyed ratings above 60%. His popularity crashed to around 15% following criticism of his handling of the March 2011 “triple disaster” (earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear crisis) and persistent political infighting.

Shinzo Abe

(First Term, 2006–2007): Launched with a strong 70% approval rating. However, his cabinet was quickly hit by a series of financial scandals and a massive crisis involving 50 million missing pension records, leading his support to drop to 29% before his sudden resignation.

Junichiro Koizumi

(2001–2006): While he remained generally popular throughout his term, he began with an unprecedented 80% approval rating. Though his support fluctuated and eventually settled in the 40–50% range, he is a rare example of a leader who maintained as much as half of his initial popularity.

Yoshihide Suga

(2020–2021): Entered office with high expectations and approval around 70%. His support fell sharply into the 20–30% range due to public dissatisfaction with his government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the decision to hold the Tokyo Olympics despite rising infection rates.

None of these Prime Ministers were able to reverse Japan’s social and economic decline in the 21^st Century. Frankly, none of them made much of a difference. Kind of like US Presidents or Canadian Prime Ministers.

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