Kursk, drones, subtext

Litigating Ukraine: subtext

Apropos of yesterday's post on Larry and the Judge’s meeting with Lavrov, I talked about subtext.

In terms of diplomatic statements, such as Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, as stated last year in June, what is not said is often more important than what is said. That is the “subtext”/

One must keep in mind, that Putin, while a lawyer, is also a born litigator . Very few lawyers are actually good litigators. Most lawyers think analytically in linear fashion. A good litigator, however, is a synthetic thinker. Of course, in legal cases, all litigators are lawyers but there forte is on their feet in the courtroom, usually not arguing the legal precedents or legal finepoints there research teams identify so much as convincing juries of the rightness of their case, responding to opposing counsel.

The law is logical; justice is moral and human.

Analysis tries to understand the nature of something that already exists by breaking it down into several parts or constituent characteristics, with logic converging to a singular point.

But synthesis is divergent combining various things that already exist into things that do not yet exist. It comes up with choices.

Analysis only deals with how something works and cannot deal with why it works the way it does, which requires stepping back outside the thing itself.

Obviously, it is best to be able to use both approaches as needed.

But that is hard because. Linear thinking is a default but synthetic thinking is a gift —and a special one— also one that Putin demonstrates constantly, with his extraordinary ability to keep his options open and seize opportunities as they appear. His approach is what you might call “Socratic.”

Wisdom and the River

The Only True Wisdom Is in Knowing You Know Nothing . Socrates

Good litigators know a lot about a lot of things – so understand that they can never be sure about what is actually happening at any given time – or outcomes—and must work with possibilities and ambiguities. The Heisenberg Principle applies to mundane life too.

So, Putin’s June statement, the one that Larry Johnson talked about in his recent post was structured to leave a lot unsaid,providing maximum room for action later — depending on whatever the future brings, but knowing that things will change no matter what—and knowing that Russia must have always a range of choices, never just one.

No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man. Heraclitus

By contrast, the US tries to nail things down to specifics in line with assumptions and defined goals. It thinks it knows. It is always the same river. And the men in charge are in some sense all the same.

In June, the man was Biden. It is now Trump. His style differs: his substance, however, is the same.

Putin seems consistent. But he sees the river. He sees himself. He understands that time changes both. He evolves and so does his policy.

And he mystifies the Western world.

Going in circles

America, which cannot change, finds itself going in circles.

We saw this the other day in Rubio’s discussion with Zelensky’s “minder”, Yermack in Riyadh.

Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (CNN) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Ukraine had accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States, following critical peace talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

The ceasefire proposal accepted by Ukraine covers the entire front line of the fighting with Russia, not just the air and sea, Zelensky said after the more than eight-hour long meeting.

“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step, and the United States of America must convince Russia to do so,” Zelensky said, adding that the ceasefire would start the moment Moscow agrees to it.

The United States said in a joint statement with Ukraine following the meeting in Jeddah that it would “immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.” A Ukrainian official confirmed on Tuesday that US security assistance to Ukraine had resumed.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said immediately after the meeting that the onus is now on Russia to take steps to end the war. “We hope that they’ll say yes, that they’ll say yes to peace. The ball is now in their court,” he said of the Russians.

The Russians have categorically rejected a ceasefire — except under certain conditions – which are almost impossible to meet or negotiated — certainly not with an illegitimate government and President that seized power through force in place, representing a dangerousNeoNazi ideology.

Minsk and Istanbul

Russia had tried negotiation before in Minsk and Istanbul when the river was a stream. Then the upstream dam broke.

While the diplomats may talk of “Istanbul 2”, it can not be anything like Istanbul 1.

No point in repeating failure.

In any case, Istanbul 1.0 reminded the Russians they were not at war with Ukraine— but with the US and Europe. Western Ukraine just wanted to de-Russify all of Ukraine— an interethnic conflict that began in the 1920s; the US and Europe wanted to destroy the entire Russian Federation, a project that began in the 18^th Century and has deep roots.

So, it is clear that Russia thinks with good reason that US policy is consistently malevolent and Washington’s protestations otherwise is disingenuous no matter who is in power, whether it is Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan, Biden or Donald Trump.

Present US policy is erratic because it is built on contradictions. “Negotiation“ is just rhetoric because they don’t mean real negotiation —which the Russians know must be based on equality and respect.

The US comes with smiles and a handshake and then tries to bludgeon an agreement –threats of sanctions—first saying they had suspended military aid and intel to the Ukrainians, then resuming them,coincidentally at the same time as the Ukrainians launched massive terrorist drone strikes on Russian civilian sites-- obviously using American intelligence which we now know was never actually cancelled

The Russians recognize their river and the Americans’ are quite different, if only because the Americans’ is polluted or dry and its bridges have all fallen down,

Putin faces several problems. Concluding the SMO by dismantling the NeoNazi state in Ukraine will take time but that is not a problem. As time goes on, Russia grows stronger and the West, weaker. The main problem now is the desperation of the Wounded West.

Plan A, Plan B, Plan C

In 2022, I had assumed that the Russians would win in short order. And they actually did – against Ukraine, which forced the Kiev regime to negotiate in Istanbul.

But, as I have said, the SMO is not the “war”, which is with the West. The defeat of the Ukraine in Southern Donbas led to much greater and more overt Western engagement and Putin switched to Plan B. Later Plan C. Next? Plan D.

As I suggested, while linear thinkers aim at one solution, synthetic thinkers improvise solutions as they go along, thinking on their feet as courtroom lawyers have to do. They give them choices.

Ukraine was –and remains-- a proxy war for the US and Europe – but also for Russia:. it has provided incentives for accelerated development of Russian culture, patriotism, industrialization and reform in all areas and at all levels. All these things developed as the SMO progressed. From on thing—the SMO came much and many. Suddenly Russia had many options it did not have before.

There has been massive public support for Putin’s policies and an equally massive rejection of the West, which had previously been seen as a model for Russia.

For the West, it further enriched its elites, fictionalizing Western economies while weakening them industrially, and destroying representative government. There is little left it can do but try to beggar its allies with tariffs.

Trap the Rat with Cheese

As I wrote in another article, it is best not to corner a rat. Better to coax into a trap with cheese.

Right now, the Russians are humoring the US and its illusions and delusions, while continuing a slow-motion campaign to destroy the NeoNazi regime in Kiev. As it does so, Kiev responds with ever more desperate efforts to survive, flailing like a drowning man, with the sharks closing in – hence the 340 or so drones launched to kill Russians indiscriminately, men and women and children

Such an action would make it difficult for Putin to compromise even if he wanted to. It also shows Kiev’s true colors to the world outside the US and its allies. So in one way or another it is counterproductive for both Ukraine and the West, including the US.

Enabling Kiev with further military assistance and intel puts the lie to the US’s stated intentions of ending the war and saving lives. It puts the lie to the UK and Europe’s characterization of Russia as an aggressor and Ukraine a free and democratic society just defending itself. It doubles down on folly.

Free and democratic societies, in case you had forgotten, do not murder the innocent.

Failure is first moral

The West is in decline— failing. Civilizations fail first morally and spiritually, before anything else.

Right now, the Russians have the Ukrainians in Kursk surrounded.

The focus is on the town of Sudzha.

But you have to look beyond that.

Next comes Sumy and Kharkov. Securing these areas will secure Lugansk and open the way to liberating the rest of Donbas, which will open the way to freeing the rest of Zaporozhe and Kherson and finally the Black Sea Coast. Then comes Ukraine west of the Dnieper, assuming that Europe keeps up threatening Russia and the Nazis remain.

To get rid of the Nazis you need either a revolution –which could mean further violence –or occupation.

The subtext of the Lavrov interview

Larry Johnson only posted a small part of his interview with Lavrov which covered a wide range of topics.

Lavrov did not say anything new really — it has, other than a few new nuances, all been said before by himself, or Putin or Peskov or others— but putting it all together in a single interview allows you to see the organic coherence of Russian policy , with each part subtext for another., each part connecting, and the whole thing evolving.

US policy is all over the map, literally and figuratively.

In the end, however, events happening today are the subtext for Russian policy today — and tomorrow.

Putin’s Gift

Putin is arguably one of the most gifted leaders in a hundred years. Why? How? As I research him, I try to arrive at some answers. That’s what I am working on now. I am sure you can understand why it is taking so long. Apologies.

Chappy dancing

Chappy is also gifted. i think I see similarities between him and Putin. You will understand from the Special Article if you get on the mailing list and buy him a coffee. Click here.

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