Larry, the Judge, and Lavrov
In Moscow
Larry Johnson and the Judge met recently with Lavrov in Moscow. No, not at that club. Nevertheless, his post was interesting.
Here’s my annotated version.
Russia believes that Donald Trump offers a genuine opportunity to restore normal relations between Moscow and Washington. However, Russia is proceeding slowly and cautiously. They’ve adopted the Ronald Reagan line, “trust but verify.” Russia’s position on a peace deal with Ukraine is clear and unambiguous.
What exactly are “normal relations”?
If you read my recent post, you will notice that the relationship between Russia and the US has never been one characterized by equality, respect, non-interference, and most of all –honesty.--going all the way back to Reagan. So, “normal” just means full diplomatic relations. The US has a very, very long way to go to earn real trust.
As for “trust but verify”, the Russians must begin with the assumption they can not trust. Nor can they often “verify”, whatever that means.
It is up to the Americans to prove they are trustworthy. Their word is worth nothing.
Yes, Russia articulated minimal conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations last year when Biden was still running things. They were clear and unambiguous, which is why Putin knew there was never any hope of them being considered seriously.
In June 2024, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would only end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow and abandoned its bid to join NATO. He outlined conditions for a ceasefire and negotiations, requiring Ukraine to hand over the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including the parts Russia does not control. According to Tass, Putin said that if Ukraine initiates a “real withdrawal of troops” and formally renounces its intention to join NATO, Russia will cease fire and begin negotiations.
When Putin offered his conditions for a ceasefire back in the summer of last year, he knew they had zero chance of being accepted. They were just a reasonable and realistic counter to Zelensky’s “peace plan” which had Russia withdrawing from all of pre-2014 Ukraine, Ukraine joining NATO, reparations and other impossibilities.
As I said, Putin’s conditions were unambiguous. But the US needs ambiguity to create cover for reneging later.
In any case, the Kiev regime called the conditions “absurd”.
Then again, the offer was not made for the Ukrainians really – but to show the rest of the world that Russia was a rational actor, not bent on conquest and could be trusted—the “Good Guy” which makes the US?….. I am sure that Putin knew how Zelensky would react and Biden.
Ukraine had to abandon plans to join NATO, become a neutral country, and never seek to develop nuclear weapons.
The rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine had to be respected.
Sanctions against Russia had to be lifted.
Kyiv must recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and these “new territorial realities” should be recognized globally.
Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification, as agreed upon at the March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul.
Putin stated that his proposal aimed to end the conflict, not simply freeze it. He also said that if these demands were rejected, Moscow’s future demands would change. What does that mean? Tougher demands.
Blanket rejection meant that the SMO would go on. Future demands would determined by facts on the ground.
At this point, the probability of a ceasefire is close to zero.
In any case, the General Staff and the Russian public do not want compromise. With NATO building a huge base in Romania on the Black Sea and saber rattling in Europe, not to mention terror attacks against civilians in Ukraine and Russia, Russia needs to protect itself—which means taking control of Odessa, and all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, as well as Kiev.
If the US were Russia what would it do?
The future of Ukraine cannot be decided by Trump or European leaders or even Russia but by the people of the region, oblast by oblast, in carefully monitored referenda. But such referenda require tribunals for the NeoNazis and banning their pernicious ideology.
At this moment, Russia is advancing on at least 8 fronts and the Ukrainians are getting slaughtered.
Lavrov is not telling Larry and the Judge anything new—just the standard Russian diplomatic line—which has been repeated many times — but there is a subtext.
Which is?
As I said, the Russians will not trust the Americans until prove they can be trusted. But the more erratic Trump’s rhetoric the harder it is to take him seriously.
Therefore the SMO will continue until resolution is achieved by force of arms.
Read Larry’s excellent article HERE. (And take a look at the previous two),
Special Article
Spent more time today, researching and rewriting. There are a lot of things I wish I had known in 2022!
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OH USA......uneducated people.
Russians know their History the US has NO idea bout History in their own land never mind the rest of the world!
Take care of your own people USA! Stop your endless bullying.
Interesting Lavrov met with Larry and the Judge. A warming of relations where it matters.
Slovenia, Hungary will make nice neighbours for Russia along with Romania when democracy is restored .
Lavrov calling Rubio a snake recently shows the tenor of the talk after 3 years of War and 100,000 Russians dead.