We should be careful in responding too fast to news events as they are reported by the mainstream media. At least I should. I have made this mistake too often.
I am consoled that even the very best analysts — analysts better than me — can err too. That was the case recently, with Alexander Mercouris, who I respect enormously,!
I think he feels it incumbent to keep his readers up to date on things as they happen —in this case, on reports of a “massive” Israeli strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon--drawing apparently on the misleading narrative of British Media and Israeli sources—albeit noting contradictions and demonstrating his usual,massively incisive intellectual capabilities as to the motivations of Hezbollah and the Israelis-- which is perhaps more important than what actually happened.
Anyway…
Just sayin’….
So what is the real story?
According to Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s attack targeted the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, which is home to Mossad, and the military intelligence group Unit 820, both of which have undertaken.assassinations of Hezbollah commanders.
This attack was deep in Israeli territory— unlike previous strikes which mostly hit northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.
Nasrallah rejected statements given by Israeli officials to the AFP news agency that the attack had failed. Obviously, if the attack succeeded the Israelis would keep tjhat secret !
Nasrallah took the opportunity to refute a number of Israeli claims.
The most important was the insinuation from the Israeli side that it had known about the attack and its “preemptive” strike had prevented Hezbollah’s attack from being achieving its goals.
Nasrallah said the Israelis noticed movement near the border and launched “pre-emptive” strikes but the sites they hit before the strike were empty. Only after Hezbollah launched its weapons were the Israeli able to strike active sites.
This implies that Hezbollah created a setup, assuming leaks. The areas Israel did hit had instead already been emptied of rocket launch sites and depots or were launch sites that were struck only after the conclusion of the attack, Nasrallah said
Hezbollah did not launch “thousands of rockets” – only about 300 (320) rockets and drones. This seems pretty certain.
It was careful to avoid civilian areas.
Nasrallah said Hezbollah had delayed the attack to:
a.) prepare for new Israeli and US deployments,
b.) cause fear among the Israeli public
c.) achieve consensus among Hezbollah’s allies, specifically the “axis of resistance” as to whether there would be coordinated attacks or not
d.) allow Gaza ceasefire talks to proceed, despite the likelihood of failure – which proved to be the case.
So...what really happened? You cannot tell from the MSM!
So far. since October, Israelis have been caught out in one lie after another-- not by the Mainstream Media of course — who continuing publishing the lies even after they have been exposed—.but by alternative media, and even Israeli sources!
That suggests that Nasrallah's account is for the most part correct— at least that Hezbollah did target Israeli Intelligence and did hit the targets. It was a selective precision attack —although not using strategic or ballistic missiles-- not intended to be escalatory —as much as a warning.
Hezbollah clearly does not want to escalate situation – not now anyway! Israel may have done some damage to Hezbollah launch sites but not enough to make any military difference should Israel not get the message.
If there is to be escalation, Hezbollah will wait for Iran to enter the fray – and that will not happen until after the BRICS Summit. Right now Iran is too busy making friends in creating allies all over the Middle East, conscious of the mood of the Arab Street. At the same time it's updating its military capabilities.
Iran will be in a much stronger position after the BRICS Summit-- and so will Hezbollah. The US will be in a weaker position, with Russian forces accelerating attrition in Ukraine.
Southfront Article?
It has led me in all sorts of directions, so still working on that — as well as on my Special Report, which is very difficult, a lot of people recently talking about the same things — the decline of “liberal democracy”, the possible collapse of the US, debt, inequality, financialization. AI, social nihilism —all from different perspectives. Creating a unified perspective is hard. Hopefully, I finish by Friday.
'...a lot of people recently talking about the same things — the decline of “liberal democracy”...'
That's like "the decline of universal altruism", or "the decline of people's ability to fly". Something that has never existed cannot be said to decline.
With all love, brother, please take a read through for typos, after which this comment may be deleted. Things like, "if the attack succeeded the Israelis would keep tjhat secret !" It distracts from your valuable content.
From a content standpoint, you're spot-on. Any governmental announcements, or comments from the media-NGO columns, must be very carefully and deliberately weighed for blatant or implied falsehood. The headline "destroyed 6000 missiles!!1" coming out past day or so was eyebrow raising for all manner of reasons, but likely effective in propagandizing people who really, really WANT to believe in their champion.