Make tea not war

Xi tells Trump

May 15, 2026

Today’s post for Coffee Buyers

Drone Wars

It’s about Russia’s massive drone strike at targets all over Ukraine, 1500 drones in a day, with most getting through. Ukraine launched about 300 drones at Russia with most taken down. A warning to the west.

Make tea not war

Trump doesn’t drink tea. He does do war though.

****

China doesn’t like “red lines”, which it feels restricts flexibility in diplomacy. It has a few – but they are ultimately casus belli.

Taiwan is no exception.

That said, China has the edge. Maybe it’s the tea.

When Trump went to China, he was really just posturing for the folks back home.He and Xi did really talk about much — certainly not about Taiwan and the UIS’s $11 billion Taiwan weapons package currently on hold. The Chinese position had been made clear – discreetly, back channel beforehand.

A line had been drawn. I am not sure what color ,

We know that the US will likely not cancel the package —just delay it indefinitely .

This ambiguity bothers Japan . My Japanese sources here indicate that Japan’s Iron Lady, no ...Bamboo Lady…(she bends) is upset that Japan might lose Taiwan, which was once a Japanese colony, and in which Tokyo has invested heavily.

But Trump has made it clear that its traditional allies cannot count on the US to defend them, not unless the pay for it. .

If you read the MSM you will see lots of talk about Japan’s “remilitarization” – arms deals. It just makes economic sense.

Australia: a $6.5 billion deal to build and deliver three upgraded Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy, with eight more to be jointly built in Australia.

The Philippines: Direct export of surface-to-ship missiles, including the advanced Japanese indigenous Type 03 Chu-SAM to Manila, alongside used Japanese naval frigates .

The United States: Japanese-manufactured Patriot air-defense missiles to help Washington replenish stockpiles depleted by military aid to Ukraine. While under Japanese law , Japan cannot provide weapons to nations involved in armed conflict, like the US —there is a loophole for “special circumstances”.

Despite what the arms manufacturers say, neither the Patriot system nor the Type 03 Chu-SAM would be more than a hiccup for Chinese systems, which have evolved rapidly, drawing on experience in Iran’s war in the Middle East, an invaluable testing ground for weapons and tactics.

There is no way that Japan could compete with China alone - and certainly not with China, North Korea, and Russia all at once. US bases just put Japan‘s dwindling population in harm’s way.

Still— the US doesn’t care about Japan.

So….

What if the US goes through with its military aid package for Taiwan and the pro-independence people on the Island get feisty?

That would mean a blockade . Lots of precedents for that!

The US does blockades. China favors doing business.

But, if forced to, China has the operational capability to blockade Taiwan, and the Chinese military has actively rehearsed it.

Following the U.S. announcement of its arms sale to Taipei, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched massive military drills named “Justice Mission 2025”.

These exercises specifically simulated a multi-service encirclement to cut off maritime shipping routes and intercept foreign military aid.

Stages of Blockade

China would execute a “layered” blockade in stages.

The “Quarantine” or Law Enforcement Blockade

Beijing could declare a “customs quarantine”.

The China Coast Guard (CCG), backed by the maritime militia, would encircle the island to board and inspect arriving commercial vessels.

This would involved targeted interception:

Under this gray-zone scenario, for which the US has established precedents on the high seas around the world, commercial shipping and semiconductors could flow freely

But exceptions would be U.S. weapons components, military hardware, and foreign military advisers.

Full enforcement could lead to militaryaction.

A Full Military Blockade

The Coast Guard steps back and the PLA Navy (PLAN) and Air Force would establish a complete, armed perimeter around Taiwan, deploying aircraft carrier strike groups to the Philippine Sea (east of Taiwan) to block the U.S. military.

After that we have :

Kinetic Blockage

Encircling the island with warships and deploying carriers to the southeast, and filling gaps with armed Coast Guard vessels to completely choke off access:

However, the kinetics could lead to escalation—mining port entrances and destroying merchant vessels attempting to run the blockade, severing Taiwan’s undersea internet cables to cut off communication with the outside world.as well as precision air and missile strikes on Taiwan’s ports and military infrastructure. ..

But escalation would be gradual and the would be driven by aggressive efforts by the US and / or Japan For Washington to deliver weapons, U.S. Navy warships would be forced to fire the first shot to break through Chinese lines, risking a major superpower war.

Taiwan’s Vulnerability:

As an island, Taiwan is completely dependent on maritime imports for energy, food, and ammunition..

The West assumes a logistical challenge but it is nothing like the one that the US faces with Iran, or would face in Chinese waters, even with its bases in Japan and the Philippines . China could enforce a blockade for as long as it takes.

Western Vulnerability

Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced logic chips.

Western tech giants (Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm) rely on Taiwanese foundries for chip production, and this capacity cannot be easily replicated elsewhere.

As of early 2026, Taiwan’s tech exports to the U.S. even surpassed those of mainland China.

As the world’ greatest philosopher Monty Python, said….