Newkraine?
Maybe...Nokraine
We see a clear shift in Russian policy.
Lavrov has been active giving interviews and answering questions.
Russia intends to reclaim its ancestral Russian lands, as the Russian people in Ukraine desire, stated Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“The people of Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya expressed their will in referendums. We will complete the process of returning these primordially Russian lands to their native haven in full accordance with the aspirations of these people,” the head of the department stated, according to TASS .
What is meant by “primordially Russian lands”. If “primordially” here means “historically” that also means “MaloRussia” and “NovoRussia”. Right now, the emphasis is on NovoRossiya.
The orange and green pimples on the left would be “Western Ukraine”.
As you can see, the goalposts have moved. Russia is moving towards maximalist solutions.
Back before Anchorage, the Russians were talking about just the four oblasts, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhizhie and Kherson in addition to Crimea. Now the area has expanded to include Kharkov and Dneiprovotrosk, Mykolaiv and Odessa. These are the areas that Yanukovych won in 2014.
Kiev, and oblasts, such as Sumy, are in a kind of gray zone as far as political and ethnic sympathies, They are historically part of Malorossiya (little Russia).
Ukrainian attacks on Russia through Sumy have made it imperative for Russia to add Sumy to its list of oblasts that it needs to incorporate, along with Kiev, of course--which the Russians see as an historically Russian city-- Poltava and Chernihiv
.An unconditional surrender would cede strategic regions to Russian control at first, which would result in an exodus of Ukrainian nationalists westwards towards the Polish border.
The UK’s FT has published a plan for a US brokered plan which would have Zelensky holding elections, which he would make sure to win by hook or crook — finally getting his ceasefire— with an agreement that he would eventually roll back. Russia would have to give up claim to all regions except the four oblasts that would be demilitarized “free trade zones”. That is typical British nonsense, I assure you. Not a recipe for peace,
Articles like that assume that Russia wants a quick, decisive end to the war and the US as a "friend”.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
― Henry Kissinger (attributed)
Nope. Russia is prepared to fight on to the finish, probably in 2027. And the US is not friend to anyone. That is what Lavrov is now saying openly.
The Russians are not in a hurry,
An important thing to remember is that combat veterans from the SVO are returning to civilian society to take leadership positions in government and industry, They are dedicated, competent and represent Putin’s Silovik “servant of the people” concept. This war is not only character-building but nation building
Assuming the demise of the old order in Ukraine. rebuilding new republics in this region would depend on Russian resources and those of its allies, including China and India , once political stability and representative government was assured. Referendums would likely favor incorporation in the Russian Federation, or the Russian Union .
In the end therefore it is quite possible that “Little Russia” would return to Mother. Then again, the Russians would be just as happy with a independent but allied state as a buffer against Poland. .
As for Ukrainian nationalists – give them Galicia — the ones who haven’t been caught and tried for war crimes.
That is an issue. Even if Zelensky won an election. How could the Russians deal with a war criminal?
As of today, the Ukrainians have launched a “counteroffensive’ with the primary target.near Ternovate in the Zaporizhzhie region,
Their attack includes armour and seven assault brigades, the 125th and 128th Heavy Mechanized Brigades, as well as the 92nd Airborne Assault Brigades—their very best.
They are opposed by the Vostok Group and are suffering heavy casualties.
And once again, killing their own.
As I mentioned a long time ago, when I was correcting Simplicius’ initial article on Kupiansk which saw a Ukrainian victory there, Kupiansk seems to have been a setup, at trap for the UAF. I was correct. Ukrainian reserves have been tied up , suffering about 6000 casualties, unable to attack, unable to flee, which frees up Russian forces elsewhere
If you wanted to know why the Russians devoted minimal forces on the ground to Kupiansk that’s why. Attrition.
Lacking personnel, the UAF has thrown in its highly prized assault regiments, which you would have thought they would hold back for emergencies.
They are tasked with attacking, even at the cost of heavy personnel and equipment losses. The Ukrainians have apparently lost a lot of armour.
Characterizing the current counteroffensive by Kyiv regime militants, the Russian military emphasizes that it differs from previous similar attempts in three ways: slightly more “meat,” slightly more equipment, and a number of reckless decisions on the part of the enemy.
It should be added that even Kyiv is now warning that the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions could result in another failure for Syrsky.
However, as I said, the Russians don’t want to lay siege to Zaporizhzhia, despite what many say. Isolating the city is good for now. The Ukrainians can’t defend it, if all their soldiers are dead
In the North, the Russians are preparing, I think for a Spring offensive to take Kramatorsk, which is heavily fortified, but not immune to Russian bombing.
In Spring, a lot of things will happen.
The US is escalating. Watch Russia look out for itself.
Owls
I am VERY fond of owls! All kinds (there are many),
I like people sometimes too, But they don’t have the eyes or the feathers. I wonder if I was a bird in another life .
Chappy and Ichi think I am crazy.
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"Kupiansk seems to have been a setup, [a] trap for the UAF".
Well, duh. In a war that strategically has been hopelessly lost for more than a year, any and all "attacks" or "offensives" by the Kiev mob are certain to accomplish nothing except greater losses and an earlier total defeat. That's obvious to a child.
The tragedy of the UAF is that they are controlled by politicians (actually criminals) who think in terms of prestige and perception, not reality. But bullets, tanks, missiles, and bombs respect only reality. They don't care about prestige and perception.
"The Ukrainians have apparently lost a lot of armour".
Well, duh (again). In modern warfare - which has hardly ever been waged except in Ukraine - armoured vehicles are like giant warships - helpless targets. It goes back to the Normandy landings in 1994. When Hitler awoke, about noon - no one dared disturb him earlier, especially with the worst of bad news - he had the OKW order Rommel to concentrate all his armour to "push the invaders into the sea". Rommel, who understood armoured warfare, politely declined and pointed out that if he obeyed that order the Allied aviation would turn ALL his armour into blazing wreckage in a couple of hours.
Even in 1944 a good general understood that armour had had its day and was no longer the queen of the battlefield.
I have often seen video from Ukraine showing Russian tanks - the best and best-protected in the world - cautiously driving forward a few yards, firing a couple of rounds, then hastily reversing back under cover. A modern general could hardly imagine anything more delightful than his enemy's armour "concentrated" and offering a perfect target for heavy weapons.