No Quiet on the Western Front

Thunderbolt from the Skies: Putin's Doomsday Weapon Puts NATO on Final Notice

That was the catchy title for the Simplicius article that popped up in my email today, promising to tell me something about the Russians‘ newest "ICBM" (hint it is not actually an ICBM ) - the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which was recently "combat -tested", destroying a military production complex in Dnepropetrovsk.

Simplicius' article, as usual, was less than "simple" and covered a wide range of internet commentary, which takes some time to parse and absorb, since it cover such a wide range of opinion. Getting actual facts requires a degree of interpretation.

Simplicius has some really astute analysis of media opinion.

But what I really wanted to know about was the missile!

Simplicius in his/her, its/ their own way, a wonder, wrote:

The first (2,500 words) is free to the public and will cover my general geopolitical analysis, while the second is paywalled due to the sensitive nature of weapons systems discussions, amongst other reasons.

In that second part, I will go into critical and elaborate depth on the new Russian hypersonic “Oreshnik” IRBM, because virtually everything seen today about the system has been awash in total unadulterated nonsense, misconception, and simple amateur misunderstanding of anything and everything related to the system’s capabilities.

Some of the chief misconceptions answered revolve around the system’s speed, terminal strike parameters, CEP accuracy, target details, and future implications thereof. So for those interested in the only detailed breakdown available on the internet at this time, subscribe today and enter our inner sanctum of Knowledge—you will not be disappointed.

Okaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy.... I am not sure what is "sensitive" about "weapons systems discussions' —just sayin’ — and why putting this behind a paywall would prevent the FSB (or FBI) from knocking on your door. I mean, they can afford to pay.

As for "misconceptions" about “system speed, terminal strike parameters, and CEP accuracy" the Oreshnik was just revealed and is still largely classified —so it is natural for people in the MSM and MAdM and Alt Media to rush to all sorts of judgements based on rumor or generally or sketchy knowledge of previous missile Russian systems or of systems in the West—although there are no comparable systems exist in Western countries.

The three performance features mentioned are basic to an understanding of all conventional missile systems. One begins there— but since “hypersonic” technology is very advanced, you cannot end there—which normally requires a little study. Even then — nobody really knows.

Now, since I don't have money to get behind paywalls, I had to do a little researching and a little thinking all by myself.

Behind the Paywall

Here’s the nitty gritty of my…umm…simple-minded, amateurish inquiry.

Putin described the Oreshnik as a Mach 10 hypersonic missile that cannot be intercepted by Western air defense systems.As I have mentioned before in other articles, "ballistic" missiles are hypersonic if they travel outside the atmosphere. They have to be to get up there, right? Waaaay up there!

Technically Mach 5 and above is "hypersonic" and can be theoretically intercepted by some Western missile systems (or so their advertising says!)

But an ICBM can reach Mach 20 or above.

In the case of the Oreshnik, it is not an ICBM, despite what some media say-- it is an MRBM (Median Range Ballistic Missile), which means it covers a shorter distance at a lower mach speed—MACH 10~12 -- unlike an ICBM which accelerates over a longer range building speed to higher levels as it does.

An MRBM is going to be bit slower but still fast enough to prevent interception.

Within the context of European conflicts. that means very short warning times within Oreshnik’s 5000 km radius of action…

Estimated flight times:

To the UK: 19 minutes

To Belgium: 14 minutes

To Germany: 11 minutes

To Poland: 8 minutes

Now keep in mind that ex-atmospheric speeds degrade in the terminal phase, as the missile or its warhead (s) enter the atmosphere. .

That is when a nominally “hypersonic”weapon might be vulnerable.

While a Minuteman missile might reach Mach 20 or more traveling through space, it slows down in the atmosphere and its stable and predictable trajectory renders it vulnerable to missile systems like the S400— and especially the S500.

So-called "hypersonic missiles", like Oreshnik and Sarmat and so on, also slow down in the terminal phase but they have maneuverable warheads, which even at Mach 2 or 3 terminally not only allow highly precise targeting but prevent interception. Patriot systems, THAAD, Iron Dome and the Arrow systems have all performed badly against MIRVs and MARVs.

As I have mentioned in my previous analyses of ”hypersonic” weapons, you must add kinetic force to the explosive power of conventional weapons — it doubles or triples explosive force, up to one fifth or sixth that of a mini-nuke.

So while the facilities in Dnepropetrovsk were large and also underground—reports are that they were either completely destroyed or severely damaged. Hard to say since the SBU has the place under tight control - which says something in itself.

thanks to Andrei Martyanov

She’s Ukrainian of course. .

Is Svetlana right? If she is, it will be the first time for her to have ever been right in any of her articles. But hey it’s a job right?

Somehow, the West wants to say this missile is not something new, no big deal, Just another Lada.

Lada 4x4

The Ukrainians and the West would like to say the Russians can’t innovate, can’t produce anything new and this missile is there old tech relabelled.

But no —the Oreshnik is not a refurbished RS 24— or, as Western media keep saying, an RS26 — it is something new—naturally taking advantage what was learned from both the RS24 and the RS26 – which appeared a over decade over — maybe even using some of the same components .

The West is also saying paradoxically that the Oreshnik used was probably the only example…because it’s well…so new!

To them, this somehow fits the trope that Russian industry is old and slow and they are running out of everything.

It is true that the Russians don’t just throw military equipment away – they refurbish, upgrade and re-develop. It saves money – improves reliability-- and accelerates speed of production. Waste not, want not.

What you get in the end is something new. An upgraded T-80 tank is different enough from the original T-80 (1976), that it really deserves a new name. You also get efficient production.

A bit of history

In the case of the Oreshnik,its predecessor is probably the Soviet RSD-10 Pioneer. The history is important.

The Pioneer was dismantled for scrap under the terms of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed in 1987 by the United States and the Soviet Union. This treaty mandated the elimination of all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, leading to the destruction of approximately 2,692 missiles by 1991, including the Pioneer.

In 2019, the United States, under President Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the INF Treaty, raising concerns about regional and global stability. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if the US deployed intermediate-range missiles in Europe, Russia would take reciprocal actions, stating, “If such systems are deployed in Europe, we will naturally have to respond in kind.

“Respond in kind”. That’s the Oreshnik.

Which owes its existence to the idiocy of Donald Trump who signed off on dumping the INF treaty.

Presumed characteristics of the Oreshnik (based on Pioneer specifications):

Type: Medium-range ballistic missile system with non-nuclear hypersonic capabilities

Missile speed: Up to 12,250 km/h (Mach 10, or 2.5–3 kilometers per second). The Oreshnik launched against Dnepropetrovsk, was reportedly at above Mach 11.

Launch range: Up to 5,000 kilometers

Warhead power: 150 kt, with three to six warheads per missile

The “warhead power” is substantial-- but keep in mind this is with nuclear warheads -- 150 kt total.There are six maneuvering warheads. Which means 25 kt per warhead.

Obviously, with conventional warheads, destructive power will be much less – but, I have mentioned in my previous analyses of such weapons, you must add kinetic force to explosive power. which doubles or triples explosive force, up to one fifth that of a mini-nuke.

How much bang do you need for our buck? Or is how much buck do you need for your bang?

Perfidious Albion?

Now, the Brits have launched Storm Shadows against Russia.

They did that before.

The Russians haven’t said anything as of tjhe time of writing, other than that the Brits hit a command post in Kursk. But this is the quiet before the storm.

The Russians will do something. What does ‘round…

Retribution is now official Russian policy.

How about sinking a British carrier? They are junk anyway. Russia would be doing the British public a favor.

That’s probably not going to happen. B

ut something else will.

So far, Andrei Martyanov has the best take not only on the recent past and present but the future. I know that some people don’t like Martyanov’s style but he calls it as it is And explains things in a way even I can understand.

Looks can be deceiving

This is a mother “Sand Cat” and her three kittens (born 2022) here in Japan.

Sand cats are native to the Moroccan desert. These tiny felines are very solitary and have huge territories which they hunt for whatever they can find —lizard, jerbils, and so on. They are perfectly adapted to a very hostile environment.

Unlike the desert cats of the Middle East, who migrated to fertile river areas which they shared with humans, they are not sociable! They are also endangered.

Coffee Time

Still working on the Special Article for coffeebuyers. Please buy me and Ichi and Chappy coffee to help me keep working on this. Once it takes shape, I will keep everyone updated on the main points, as I usually do. For the rest, buy me a coffee and get on the list. Click here or on Sandy’s photo above.