Not-War or Hot-War?

NSAM beats the drums

Today’s post for coffeebuyers

An attack on Moscow on May 9 is a red line that Zelensky would be foolish to cross. On the other hand…..

NSAM trumpeting war

In my disappointment with the NSAM (Not So Alternative Media), which is now predicting another US attack on Iran and other dire events, I find solace in some writers outside the pale. Or is it “pail’ ? “Pale” comes from the Latin for “fence” I believe.

“Pail” — that’s a container for shit.

I am not sure this post below is original with Safa but I like it anyway.

This is a war of contradictions (as I keep on bleating ad nauseum). At this point,nobody knows what is happening, except that whatever the US says is happening, isn’t. I am surprised that many analysts keep on quoting CENTCOM as though it was something more than a military dog & pony show .

Here’s Moon of Alabama:

During the last hour a U.S. Navy ship apparently tried to enter the Strait near Jask but was diverted after the Iranian military fired two missiles at it. CentCom seems to confirm the attack when it claims that no missile has hit.

Was it one ship? Or two? A destroyer or just a patrol boat. Two missiles? Or drones, rockets, and missiles? Umm… a dog? Or a pony?

Within a few hours the latest attempt by Donald Trump to somehow change the situation in the Strait has failed.

How does B.know this? Was Trump trying to change” something and not just the military testing the boundaries? We jump from an incident of really little importance to major strategic decisions, which B elaborates on.

He is still left with three choices:

1. Keep up the blockade of Iran (and thus Hormuz) while the global economy deteriorates further;

2. Use again military force against Iran with the likely outcome being a worse situation;

3. Declare victory and leave.

I suspect Trump will at least try step 2 before giving up and turning to 3.

Or maybe a fourth choice: fart in the wind.

Here’s the deal.

So far, Trump has been following a script given to every President on taking office. It’s like a Gideon Bible in a hotel room where you are having hot sex with a hooker. Not much read — but it’s there! Yeah, you kinda know what’s in it.

Of course, Trump famously doesn’t read much.

OK. That’s a crappy metaphor. But you get the idea I think.

Maybe Trump will try another attack. I suspect the Iranians are hoping he does! They have been preparing.

Commonsense

My favorite analyst Will Schryver writes :

It Ain’t Over Yet From what I have been able to piece together so far, the US Navy boldly ordered a pair of patrol boats to cross the yellow line (see image below) and penetrate the Gulf of Oman as far as they could until they drew Iranian fire.

That happened somewhere near the red line, at which point the boats promptly skedaddled back to the fleet, most of which is cowering in the northern Arabian Sea.

Now, I don’t entirely dismiss the possibility, but I seriously doubt they sent destroyers, and that’s why the Iranians pulled their punch, and just fired a couple “shots across the bow”, as it were. That’s all it took.

You have to understand that there can be no reasonable doubt that the Iranians tracked these boats all the way up the Gulf of Oman. From their mountains near the coast they can look down upon the entire Strait of Hormuz along a 270 degree perimeter.

Of course they can see everything.

And so the mighty US Navy called back its little boats, and let the fantasy writers in Washington craft a tale of US-flagged cargo ships being safely escorted through the strait, and a half-dozen Iranian fast boats “blown up”, and, in sum, one of the greatest naval operations in human history ... or so the story goes.

But I doubt this thin yarn will endure for long.

Because, as everybody knows, history is written by the winners.

And, as I first wrote back on March 4th: No matter what happens going forward, or how the narrative is spun, Iran has achieved decisive strategic victory, and history will identify this conflict as a catalyst for accelerated decline of the American empire.

There will be no going back to the status quo ante.

Few can see this now, but it will become clear in time. Of course, this doesn’t mean the US is ready to yield the battlefield. The idea of slinking away humiliated will gnaw at them, and they will try to do something that results in them having a more emphatic “last word” in this war.

They have another Amphibious Ready Group (USS Boxer) that will soon arrive in the theater, pushing their potential invasion force closer to 10k. So there is that to consider.

And, lurking quietly in the background, whatever “Hail Moses” play the Israelis have been scheming hasn’t yet come down from the mountain. The annals of this war are not yet completed.

Here’s the thing. The Winners do write the History —which takes years and nobody reads it. The Losers write the News, which is today. People read it over breakfast and forget it by dinner time.

If you read the NSAM, Larry Johnson and his “friends” think it’s this week.

Trump really does have a problem of intellectual flatulence…. Don’t light a match when he’s talking.

Hezbollah has been punishing Israel, which is running short on weapons and ammunition. The US will supply its needs, of course. But that will take time.

Can I get the US to buy me a coffee?

Israel of course is desperate to attack Iran itse but would be foolish to try right now. Anyway, it has its hands full with rape and murder.

Iran is destroying UAE infrastructure partly in response to the Emirates leaving OPEC and also because it has betrayed Islamic values as a proxy for Israel and the US.

Isn’t that Bibi’s left hand, “unclean” in the middle east.

Notice the headline below, which implies that UAE is part of an American axis.

The attacks did a lot of damage.

The message is clear. Iran is telling Trump the war is over when we say it’s over.

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