Nuclear War Tomorrow?

Not

Misunderstanding Putin

There is a lot of talk on the Internet about Russia's revision of its nuclear policy. For the most part, even experienced analysts such as Larry Johnson and Scott Ritter do not seem to have understood what Putin is saying about nuclear war .

Putin is not threatening all-out nuclear attack in the event of a nuclear power using a proxy such as Ukraine to damage Russia proper with conventional weapons.

What he is saying is that an attack on Russia by a nuclear power even using a proxy amounts to a declaration of war, which Russia would respond to— appropriately— by direct counterattack – just as they have done with Russia.

It could mean attacks on NATO assets such as land bases, ships at sea, aircraft, satellite systems and the like—or even directly on the United States and the British Isles .

Naturally, that could also mean a dangerous chain of events— with escalation from conventional weapons to low yield tactical nuclear weapons to strategic high yield nukes.

“Could” but probably not—nothing is more important to a NeoCon than his or her own ass.

Granted the Western world – especially the Americans – are black and white thinkers for whom everything is all or nothing. Maybe not shades of gray — they bleed red.

The reason for Putin’s pronouncement right now is fairly simple-- to prevent the US from doing something “gangsta” which crosses Russian redlines-- and could lead to war. Real war. Not the virtual kind the MSM broadcasts.

When war was war

Once upon a time, as in World War II, there were certain rules.

“War" was not war without a formal declaration .

Two hours after the attack on Pearl Harbor began, the Japanese declared war on the US and Great Britain — as per the rules

The US followed with a formal declaration of war the day after by Congress as the president (FDR) requested. Rules.

Post-World War II,things changed.

The US engaged in wars without formal declaration. That included Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yugoslavia of course.

Technically, only Congress has the right to commit the US to war.

However, the Authorization for Use of Military— a joint resolution of the United States Congress gave the President the authority to use all "necessary and appropriate force" against those whom he determined "planned, authorized, committed or aided" the September 11 attacks, or who harbored said persons or groups involved.

U.S. Presidents thereafter have interpreted their authority under the AUMF to extend indefinitely to anyone they feel is an "enemy. I expect a drone at any minute.

However, all US non-war “wars” since 1945 have been against weaker non-nuclear states. Lesser mortals don’t matter.

Peer Level Enemies

At least, didn’t matter until now.

The problem is that US has always tended to think that it could do anything because:

A. It thought it had the most powerful military

B. It had nuclear weapons

C. Mutually Assured Destruction prevents nuclear reprisals from nuclear states

D. The American mainland was considered too far away from any state that could threaten it.

E: God loves Americans (only)

The trouble is that the US no longer has the most marked powerful military in the world. It is third after Russia and China. While it has lots of nuclear weapons, the Russians have more and better nuclear weapons— which they can use tactically as well as strategically.

The Russians have submarines off the coast of the US and Avangard and a whole range of hypersonic missiles to give an advantage if push came to shove.

Destruction is no longer “mutually assured”, given the Russian technological advantage.—and of course their advanced, EW, air defense and anti-satellite weapons.

The Russians don't want war. They never have. But when they fight, they are very good at it.

The Americans by contrast have romanticized war with their fantasies of having won World War II,which of course they didn't.

Postwar, they have pretty much lost every war they engaged in--but somehow managed to convince themselves that it didn’t matter. Just turn the channel.

Find some fun stuff.

And now they are still pretending: “we’re so powerful we can cross Russian redlines because the Russians are afraid to respond.“ You can tell from the poster.

In 2022, the West ignored Russia’s redlines. Look what happened.

The Brits, in particular, seem to have forgotten.

We’re witnessing a pattern where Russian threats, which were once viewed with caution, are now seen as little more than a rhetorical device. The red lines keep moving, shifting with every new Western delivery of arms, every Ukrainian advance, and every sign that Russia’s military might isn’t quite what it used to be.

And while there’s always the risk of Russia reacting unpredictably, especially with the ever-present nuclear card being dangled, the more likely scenario is that Putin will continue to huff and puff, without blowing the geopolitical house down.

This from a country that would last less than a week in a direct conflict with Russia.

The Russian revision of military doctrine puts the lie to all this—set out as an official, quasi-legal declaration.

Rules!

An act of war which threatens the sovereignty of Russia will be regarded as a declaration of war, even if carried out by a proxy. The Hessians were German but they were employed by the British -- so British. Similarly, iIf Ukrainians are employed by the Americans as proxies, they are American.

Since the US is a nuclear state, Russia will also be prepared for nuclear escalation but it doesn’t have to come to that. Russia will use nuclear weapons only if its existence is threatened. That doesn’t mean it is afraid to use them— just pragmatic.

Where conventional weapons suffice, it will use those. Tit-for-tat. It will be like WWII in which both sides had chemical weapons but avoided using them.

The US is a tiger in a zoo. Overfed, fat, with it teeth rotting away.

Having nuclear weapons is no longer an excuse for anything.

Andrei Martyanov apparently agrees with me.

I listened to his video on after I wrote this analysis . It’s at the end. Click HERE — or on the photo below.

Full Text of Putin’s speech

Alongside the Military Doctrine, this is a document that officially defines and details Russia’s nuclear strategy. First of all, it sets forth the basic principle of using nuclear weapons: the use of nuclear forces is the last resort measure to protect the country’s sovereignty.

Let me stress that we have always been highly responsible in matters like this, being well aware of the colossal power these weapons have, striving to strengthen the international legal foundation for global stability and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and their components.

At present, our nuclear triad remains the most important security guarantee for our state and citizens, an instrument for maintaining strategic parity and balance of forces in the world.

At the same time, we can see that the modern military-political situation is rapidly changing and we have to factor that in, including the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.

It is important to predict the development of the situation and adjust the provisions of the strategic planning document in accordance with current realities.

Over the last year specialists from the Defence Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Security Council Office and other agencies have made an in-depth and comprehensive analysis and evaluated the need for adjusting our approaches to a possible use of nuclear forces. Based on the results of this work, a number of updates have been proposed in terms of defining the conditions for using nuclear weapons.

Thus, the draft Basic Principles expand the category of states and military alliances in respect of which nuclear deterrence is exercised and expand the list of military threats to be neutralised by nuclear deterrence measures.

I would like to draw your attention specifically to the following. The updated version of the document is supposed to regard an aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as their joint attack against the Russian Federation.

It also states clearly the conditions for Russia’s transition to the use of nuclear weapons. We will consider such a possibility once we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border. I mean strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, hypersonic and other aircraft.

We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed upon with the Belarusian side and the President of Belarus. Including the case when the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty.

In conclusion, I will note that all the updates have been deeply calibrated and are measured against contemporary military threats and risks to the Russian Federation.

It’s true

I am one of those people with very low levels of cortisol in the morning. In college, I never made it to early morning classes. I needed a couple of cups of very STRONG coffee to be barely functional.

Ichi doesn’t need coffee— just kibble — at 6 AM! I manage that half asleep.

So please buy me and my furry masters coffee. Click here - or on the graphic above.