Oh Jerusalem!

And was Jerusalem builded here Among these dark Satanic mills?

Israel’s Failure

It seems that I was correct in my analysis yesterday – namely that the Israelis used F-15 fighters to launch their attack on Iran on account of their longer-range and load carrying capabilities

Mind you, the Israelis have been releasing footage of F15s and F16s purportedly taxiing to strike Iran, although none of them appeared to be armed with air-ballistic missiles –just long range fuel tanks!

I guess the Israelis are aware that they don’t have many F15s and want to suggest that the F16 is up to the job - -which it is — marginally only.

Since they have just over 60 F15s, they could've used only 40 or 50 as I said-- not the hundred aircraft that they claim.

While I was probably right about this point, w , I was probably wrong about the Israelis using their new Air LORA missiles. Despite all their advertising, Israel apparentlyu lacks inventory, and no doubt had to fall back on older Rampage missiles, which are less effective—easier to shoot down

Looks cool in the advertising photos but….

The Rampage’s relatively low speed not only provides targets with a considerably longer warning time, but it also makes the munition considerably easier to intercept for even basic low level air defences such as the Syrian S-125 and 2K12 KuB. Given the relative softness or targets in the Middle East however, the vast majority of which are considerably easier to neutralise than those Russian and Chinese cruise missiles were designed to counter, the Rampage can be seen as a low cost system well suited and sufficient to carry out the tasks requires of a basic standoff cruise missile by the Israeli Air Force. Whether the Israeli Defence Force will move to acquire faster, higher payload or longer ranged cruise missiles remains to be seen. Given the growing perceived threat posed by Iran’s land based cruise and ballistic missile inventory - increasingly supplemented by submarine and air launched munitions - this remains a considerable possibility. 

This also explains Iran’s apparently very high interception rate—much better it seems than Israel’s!.

Decapitation Strikes

On the basis of the now famous “leak”, Alex Mercouris has suggested that the Israelis were planning a “decapitation strike”, which would have taken out Iranian AD systems, including radars, as well as nuclear facilities, missile production factories – and the Iranian leadership including Khamenei, who is dying, taken out by God.

I think Alex that he has been reading too FT and Economist sutt —too much Israeli / American propaganda.

What this strike— much more limited compared to the one planned in the “leak” shows is that the Israelis don’t have the capability to carry out a major effective attack– without very substantial support and direct involvement from the US.

As I showed last time, the Israelis don’t have enough combat aircraft overall– just over 200— if they put them all in the air. Probably less.

For example, the IAF has 30 to 40 F35s – which have an operability rate of just 50%. If you have 200 aircraft, you are never going to have more than 150 capable of combat operations at one time.

In any case, it’s a long way from Israel to Iran and the Iranians are always going to have plenty of advance warning.

However, let’s assume that Alex’s “decapitation strike” were possible. Just sayin’….

The Iranians have been preparing for a major Israeli attack for 20 years. They have Russian and Chinese AD systems in place and critical resources are hidden under mountains, including missiles, missile factories and nuclear facilities. They have the most advanced radars and EW.

Most important —unlike the Americans and Israelis— they have no illusions.

But suppose that the Israelis can destroy all their materiel — and go on to murder the political leadership, what would be the outcome?

Massive, unrestrained retaliation, of course!

Control of Iranian payback would go to whoever survives in the IRGC and they would immediately launch a massive revenge attack.

Iran, at this point, has more than 4000 missiles, with fast production newer models (by my estimate.)

If 75% were destroyed —an unlikely high percentage— the Iranians could still launch the remaining 1000 or so – probably their best – best protected—and most likely to survive a major strike. .

That would wipe out all of Israel’s essential infrastructure – everything— including military facilities, perhaps even the country’s nuclear capability! Goodbye Zion.

At the same time, Iran would close the Gulf of Hormuz, causing an economic crisis for all Western countries and devastating the US economy.

In other words, a “decapitation” strike would be suicidal.

The Leak and the Test Run

What the “leak” actually describes is the kind of strike that just took place but on a somewhat larger scale.

Therefore, the strike was a test.

The US and Israel failed.

Iran will retaliate – but, as before, it will wait – further strengthening its resources and leveraging cooperation with China, Russia and North Korea. The form of its retaliation will depend on circumstances after the Presidential Election in the US.

How much longer can Israel go on?

Over at Moon of Alabama, Arch Bungle is not optimistic about Israel’s future. Read HERE. The title is “What has Israel achieved in the last year. To which the answer is “nothing” – just the basis for its own demise.

Pumpkin Time

Pumpkin time is coming. Here in Japan, it is a BIG thing. Fully commercialized — like Christmas. If you have a girlfriend, you have to take her out for dinner or to party.

Above is Lunch!

Fortunately special dinners for cats are much cheaper.

I prefer cats. With or without fancy stuff they love to cuddle and always want to sleep with me, despite my being an ugly old guy.

Help me and Ichi and Chappy (for them no tricks only treats) enjoy Halloween ! Buy us coffee . Click HERE. Or on the photo above.

The download links for the last two articles, and the three previous ones expire Nov. 1 So still time to get on the mailing list this month!