Pissing against the wind

The Stable Idiot

Yesterday, I wrote about the consequences of an attack on Iran, focusing on how it would affect the US and Trump. The title of the post was “The Stupidity Paradox” which is a book by Alvesson and Spicer. The pdf is downloadable HERE. It is possibly the best work ever written on institutional and corporate organizations.

It appears to be influenced by Herbert Simons, notion of Bounded Rationality which intersects with studies of cognitive styles, which I have written about before.

You may wonder why I spent so much time talking about things like Types 1, 2, and 3 thinking . The first two were popularized by Kahneman as “fast” and “slow’. The third is creative thinking —rhizomatic or relational—most effective in existential situations.

Type 1 is prioritized in institutional or organizational settings, allowing for smooth management — but resulting in errors and stupid decisions. It is the kind of thing that you see in American strategic planning and intelligence operations— where “analysts” and “planners” try to provide their bosses with solutions that confirm their biases, with dissent filtered out by group-think.

That is what we see now with Iran and Israel and the US.

I opined that war with Iran is not a rational option – not for the US – not for Israel. But I also argued that most US wars are irrational. The US does not “think” in any strategic sense. Arguments that the US military buildup and technologies give it an edge are equally irrational — based on wishful thinking and MIC propaganda.

So I posited, as you will recall, that among the various options, the only rational option for Trump—if he didn’t want to commit political suicide — was to keep the talks going, find a face-saving compromise and extract himself.

However, I also said that while he might be influenced by saner minds or just self-preservation, he is not a rational actor.

So now we see the Stupid Paradox in action.

Trump is talking sheer nonsense. There is no need for me to rebut his long list of lies. I was surprised that he did include the Twin Towers among other Iranian transgressions. The truth is there for anyone with half a mind to see. A pity that many people don’t even have half.

As William Schryver wrote:.

Both sides would be hurt badly, but the Iranians would not be severely depleted, let alone defeated, whereas the US would be hurt in a fashion it has not experienced in the memory of many people still alive — only to then look around and discover itself in a state of acute logistical crisis after only a fortnight of high-intensity combat operations. William Schryver, X

But is Trump actually responsible? How old is he? 79 going on 5?

As I said, he doesn’t “think”.

That statement explains why he is always full of shit.

y Not that Biden was any better. Nor Obama. Nor Bush. As Brian Berletic points out they are all following a program. They differ in style, not in substance.

Read the US’ own policy papers - “Which Path to Persia?” is all about the US starving Iran to death, funding and arming terrorists to destroy it from the inside, making fake deals to frame Iran as the bad guys, and duping the public into accepting repeated US-Israeli strikes on it from abroad.

They admit all throughout the document that they need to lie to the public to build consent for regime change and that the opposition groups they back are not even popular and couldn’t exist without constant US support.

And if you have no time to read the whole thing, just read the table of contents in the image I provided you below so you don’t even have to open the document.

Who funds Brookings - big-oil, pharma, the arms industry, big-tech etc. - people you will have a hard time convincing yourself or anyone else that they have our or the Iranian people’s “best interests” or “freedom” at heart.

How can people say they oppose Trump then spend their time online supporting US regime change Trump himself is openly and loudly promoting? Brian Berletic@BrianJBerletic

·Presidents do not have “advisors”— they have courtiers. The people Presidents surround themselves with all conform to the basic principles of the Stupidity Paradox: especially the notion that if you did something and it failed, you have to keep on repeat it—the classic definition of madness.

Of course, while repeating the same mistakes, you pretend you’re doing something different. You pretend you are somehow different from all those other guys before you who did the same thing.

Yesterday, the Iranians announced they would give up plans to enrich uranium—a compromise that might have given Trump an off-ramp from confrontation if he had pursued negotiations further.

I am quite sure the Iranians had been prepared for two reactions:

• Trump announces success against Trump. “See, I saved the world from an Iranian bomb!”

• The Israelis strike to prevent the Americans from backing down from war, thus activating US support, plans for which had already been made.

So, the Israelis struck Iran – targeting Khamenei and residences of military and governmental officials. They did this with missiles launched from outside Iranian airspace and with terrorist drone strikes within the country.

One strike hit a girl’s school, killing 40 girls.

Af first, there was confusion. Some “anonymous” officials said the Israeli attack was coordinated with the US. Some said no, it was unilateral.

Then, of course, Trump made his speech setting aside doubts.

So the US and Israel are now at war with Iran – and therefore with China and Russia. It’s another proxy war.

But the Iranians were prepared. And it was immediately obvious Israel’s air defenses, Golden Dome and THAAD and Patriot batteries are not going to be of much use.

Haifa

Khamenei had been moved to safety in advance. We can’t say much about the rest of the leadership but it seems that some military commanders may have been killed – their homes targeted— which means their families and neighbors too, which by the way, is war crime since at home they are non-combatants under international law.

But the US and Israeli don’t care. Even schools and school children are not spared. So far the death toll is 63

In response, the Iranians immediately launched a hundred drones at Israel.

But that was followed by massive strikes on US bases and facilities all across the Middle East, as well as strikes on Israel. In the case of bases close to Iran, they are using older shorter range missiles and drones — which are no less effective than the hypersonic weapons they are using for the first time against Israel,

This $ 1 billion US radar —the US’s most advanced in the Middle East— was put out of action by a Geran drone.

Iran has struck at all the major US bases in the Middle East including its bases in the KSA, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan , the UAE, the KSA and perhaps Turkey. And Yemen has entered the fray, which complicate the Ford joining the Abe in the Arabian Sa . There are reports of attacks on the US carrier fleet in the Arabian Ocean but nothing confirmed.

As I write, Iran has just announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Watch the US economy tank.

Who will win? Stupid always loses in the end. Which is why the US has never won a war against an enemy who can fight back.

Americans will likely die.Who killed them? Trump pulled the trigger. But the gun is called the United States of America.

Canada, BTW, supports the US attack. I am a Canuck. And I am ashamed.

NOTE

No cute animal stuff today. I find all this upsetting, if not overwhelming. It reminds me too much of my time in Laos during the “Secret War”. All the death and pain.

So I will confine myself to begging for coffees to get us to the end of the month.

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