Predictions of War

Eyes on the road

A lot of people try to predict the outcomes of a war by looking at military history. You can learn from history — namely that the rules are always being rewritten. It is far better looking towards the future following technological trends developing today.

American strategies all look backwards to WWII. Aircraft carriers. Fighter combat. Area bombing. Tanks, and so on. Always more buck for the bang.

The Russians and Chinese want more bang for the buck, so they look at drones and various kinds of missiles.

How do you predict the outcomes of wars? Keep your eyes on the road — but keep alert for kids running out into the street . History is the rearview mirror .

It difficult to see what’s ahead in the Age of Disinformation, which is also the Age of Distractions.

But some analysts do,

Ibrahim Majed

@IbrahimMajed

𝗜𝗦𝗥𝗔𝗘𝗟 𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗦 𝗕𝗔𝗖𝗞 𝗪𝗔𝗥 𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗦: 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗟𝗜𝗧𝗔𝗡𝗜 𝗧𝗢 𝟯𝗞𝗠, 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗡𝗢 𝗟𝗢𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗥 𝗦𝗘𝗘𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗛𝗘𝗭𝗕𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗔𝗛’𝗦 𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧

Israeli Army Radio reports that the military will present a plan this week to the political leadership aimed at the complete destruction of villages along the southern Lebanese border, and the establishment of a “security zone” cleared of civilians, with no return allowed for Lebanese residents of frontline towns. According to Israeli military officials, the entire area within 3–4 kilometers of the border is to be transformed into a buffer zone, reinforced by forward military positions. .At the same time, the Israeli army now states that disarming Hezbollah is not among the objectives of the war. . For over a year, Israeli leadership insisted Hezbollah had been crippled or effectively neutralized. Today, the goal of disarmament is no longer even pursued. The contradiction is unavoidable: if that objective has been dropped, it is because it was never achievable in the first place.

What was once framed as an advance toward the Litani River has now been reduced to a narrow strip of 3–4 kilometers. .If this trajectory continues, these goals will keep shrinking, until the reality becomes undeniable: holding ground inside Lebanon is not sustainable, and imposing outcomes by force has clear limits. Regardless of these plans, the reality on the ground will not follow that script. The people of the south will return to their village .A depopulated buffer zone is not something that can be imposed or sustained, it is something they will never be able to achieve.

The forensic heads up here is the change in stated goals, accompanied by military losses and changes in tactics.

The Israelis are doubtless thinking backwards in terms of their use of the Golan Heights as a security zone. But there is really little to compare between the Golan Heights in this area of Lebanon and future goals. One thing the Israelis had in the past was the military power to occupy and control the Golan Heights, which is located on a plateau and has a strategically powerful position.

In 1973 Israel had the advantage of airpower and superiority in armor, both of which it still relies upon despite huge losses of Merkava tanks to Hezbollah’s drones and anti-tank rockets. Airpower still matters but it is no longer just aircraft —it includes drones and missiles. In 1973 the Israelis routed the Syrians so they think they can just sweep away Hezbollah’s resistance and add Lebanon to Greater Israel.

As of today , however, it is Hezbollah that has the edge, coordinating its attacks with those of Iran and the Houthis.

Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran have resulted in retaliatory strikes from this reconstituted Axis of Resistance. Since Israel is small but densely populated and highly militarized, this has resulted in massive damage at all levels. Hit it anywhere and the military bleeds. And so do the people.

Of course, Iran and Hezbollah and the Houthis have a lot of targets besides Israel – especially bases and infrastructure in the Gulf oil states. So sending Israel back “to the Stone Age”— as Donald Trump would put it— could take a little while, but if Iran decides to destroy Israel’s power grid and water supplies that will be the end of Israel pretty fast. That’s the coup de grace.

The US assumes that Israel will survive – just as it assumes that its allies in the Gulf states in Jordan will survive-- that all it has to do is defeat Iran and everything will return to normal – God bless America! And how could God’s own country lose?

Sorry, “normal” is dead. And what God would not be disgusted by the the Americans and Israelis?

I’m sure you’ve read all the news about recent American aircraft losses.

It was shock & awe — hitting Americans,

As I have predicted, while the Americans have been so far careful to avoid encroaching on Iranian airspace, launching standoff missiles from outside, they are running short on those missiles and the air force is under pressure from the Trump people to go “all in” – “in” implying attacks with glide bombs inside Iranian airspace.

As a result the F-15 that was shot down was in Northwestern Iran close to the border. The aircraft and the A-10 which was shot down over the water were both probably based in Jordan—with the pilots likely hoping to escape to Kuwait which might not have been the best place if the photo below is any indication. .

NO US bases in the ME are safe right now.

Naturally. we cannot trust anything that the US says because statements are carefully curated to align with White House propaganda. It is very clear that while CENTCOM insists it destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses, Iran has more than enough available. And some of it is very good indeed.

The A-10 for example was likely taken down by a Project 258 loitering air defense munition they can stay aloft for six hours waiting for a target of opportunity and attack using infrared and electronic sensors.

While CENTCOM claims to have destroyed all of Iran’s Chinese air defense missiles and radars and EW suites, there is no evidence of that .

And on April 4, Iran announced deployment of a new AD system!

A ground invasion, or even just raids with ground troops, is something that the Iranians welcome. Not because they want to kill Americans but because they want prisoners of war, which would give them leverage later. When Iran took control of the US Embassy after the fall of the Shah, the 52 Embassy hostages became a major bargaining tool.

The Americans don’t seem to care about Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz anymore – partly because the Saudis have a pipeline to the Red Sea known as Petroline, which is capable of transporting about half of the kingdom’s oil exports.

But only half. Not enough, sorry.

Also, this pipeline is extremely vulnerable to drone and missile attack and even if the oil gets to the Red Sea, the Houthis control the Bab el Mandab chokepoint.

If this “escape route” is disabled, global oil prices could soar to between $130 and $150 a barrel or higher, say, $200, simply because all exit routes for Gulf oil would be compromised.

What about the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which connects to Haifa in Israel? What about it? LOL.,

Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen are now launching coordinated attacks on Haifa, transforming it into rubble /

In the meantime, Jordan is right in the middle of everything. The King of Jordan should look to moving to one of his properties in London or the US. .

Of course, Trump attacking Iran with troops now is irrational. Then again so is the entire war.

Ginger cats are special.

Well, male ginger cats. The genes for coat color are linked to behavioral genes and also sex-linked . Or perhaps it is the other way around: in most animals, behavioral genetics come first before physical differences.

The same applies to people. So many autistic people are neotenous — they look younger than their real age. Their brains are juvenescent. Ginger cats are also juvenescent. They never grow up.

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