PREMONITIONS: HELMHOTZ SMITH With Commentary
Reprinted with permission from Larry Johnson’s site, A Son of the New American Revolution.
Helmhotz Smith also contributes to b’s site, Moon of Alabama, which you should also support and read.
Johnson and Smith share two important things: unusual and well-informed integrity and intelligence. You may not agree with everything they say, but they will certain make you think - if you have a mind to think, of course—unlike the zombie press in the US.
Commentary
While the pro-Russian blogosphere is impatient with the slow pace of the Russian’s non-war “war” - the SMO,—Smith reiterates an important point that Gonzales Lira has made that making a war boring for the American public means it drops down their list of priorities, rather like a boring TV services that you stop watching. Same-old; same-old. Once the public loses interest; political value is degraded.
Nothing that Zelensky does can make this “war” really interesting, despite the best efforts of the Media.
Too many plotholes. Too much CG.
The Russians redeploy from one place to another. First it was Kiev, which they had no interest in trying to take. Then Kharkov, which allowed them to strengthen their line where it really mattered — in the South— where they needed to conduct referenda.
The UAF assembled a force of thousands to take Krasny Liman, a small town of no real strategic importance in and of itself and defended by a few 100 militia.
The defenders kept the line for three weeks; the UAF suffered huge casualties.
Then, when the referenda in the south were completed, the defenders of Lima redeployed outside the city to a defensive line manned by the 58th Guards and Wagner Group. The UAF “conquered” an empty city. It is good at “winning” against ghosts.
This does not make for exciting drama. Truth does not “out”. It leaks.
The case of the Zelensky regime, that leakage gets a bad smell with more and more reports, about NeoNazis, raping, murdering, torturing and trying to out-do ISIS. The more morbid such stories, the more horrific, the more people listen to them. “That can’t be”, they say. “Must be propaganda”. But the stories keep on coming. And videos and photos.
In the end, they help undermine the War in Ukraine series Season 1’s ratings, along with the fact that taxpayer money that Biden promised for social improvements go to a failed war in a foreign country most people cannot locate on the map.
What matters to Americans and Europeans and the Japanese people now is economics - prices, jobs, and the next new virus. Noriel Roubini and others predict a global recession early next year, if not earlier.
Russia is one of the few countries prepared for this recession, which may actually benefit them. Sanctions over the years have resulted in a high degree of autarchy. In addition, they have a very low level of debt and their economics are based on real assets — natural resources. The US Empire by contrast is a house of cards - about to fall.
The slow pace of the war benefits the Russia’s in the long term as Smith suggests — not that they want it to go on TOO long!
As he also points out, incorporation of Russian Ukraine back into Russia (where it belongs) allows Russia to expand its military efforts in line with its own law and popular support.
Expect Russia to take Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov and large chunks of Krivoy Rog, leaving a depopulated Ukrainian speaking rump state, with few resources. With not much to exploit, the “West” will lose interest and cast Western Ukraine aside like an aging whore. .
Smith on Larry Johnson’s Site
I see a lot of things going on in the background. I list them here.
USA/THE WEST
Sullivan says a communication link has been opened with Moscow. To talk about what? If you take the official Washington line there is nothing to talk about – Moscow must give up. Is Washington preparing for a different conversation?
After the accusations that Russia is considering nuclear weapons Blinken made it clear that no preparatory signs had been seen. Somewhat of a toning down of rhetoric.
Zelensky applied for fast-track NATO membership and was instantly slapped down by Sullivan – “at a different time.”
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
INTERNATIONAL
The West’s “mojo” isn’t working. Scholtz received little support from his Gulf visit and neither did Biden from Saudi Arabia. China, India and Brazil abstained on the American UNSC motion to censure Russia’s absorption of the four regions. “90% of the world” isn’t following the lead of the so-called “international community”. Many countries see the world changing and have picked their side or are waiting to see how it plays out (Egypt and Saudi Arabia are feeling out the SCO, for example).
RUSSIA
There are many videos of trains carrying heavy equipment west. I’ve seen tanks, Mstas, BM-21s, Iskanders and lots of BMPs. Nothing suggests that Russia is running out of anything. This suggests preparations for a large-scale Russian Army armored offensive along traditional deep penetration doctrine.
The status of the new four regions opens the possibility of more forceful actions by the Russian Armed Forces as such because they are “defending the Motherland”.
There is a good deal of plausible speculation that the 300 thousand man call up may free up soldiers in the rear. If so, the effect of the extra troops may be felt sooner than many expect.
As far as razputitsa (распутица), winter and other things beloved of TV commentators, it’s not the USSR in 1941. There are a lot of paved roads and Russians are well-equipped and experienced for fighting in winter. Therefore there is no guarantee that things will be quiet for four or five months.
“We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire and all hostilities; to end the war it unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table.” said Putin a couple of days ago. Was this his last offer before a much more powerful attack?
PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
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