Putin's "Self Deception"?

A reply to John Helmer

John Helmer….

Putin’s three-step method for dealing with US presidents — first by ingratiating them personally; then by lecturing them with lessons on history, economics, and strategy; and lastly by offering unilateral concessions in return for promises of US benefits to follow.

As the releases of declassified records for the Bush presidential archive continue, the evidence mounts that this method of Putin’s is the one he is repeating today with President Donald Trump.

The new evidence is that Putin’s method is a repeated failure. One reason for this is confirmed in the new documents from the Bush archive — US presidents never do what they say. This is American deception.

The second reason is that the understandings Putin reaches with US presidents are those Putin has in his head – they are never those in the American heads. This is Russian self-deception.

This is a very interesting article, backed up by a lot historical research.

I think that Helmer is right about some things; wrong about others: it is a mistake to draw conclusions from Putin’s relationship with Bush back in 2001 and assume that VVP’s thinking then is the same as today—or ‘self deception’.

In 2001, Russia was weak – and the US and NATO strong. At that point, it was difficult for Russia to assert itself as a Great Power, because it wasn’t one.

Things were different back then at the Turn of the 21st Century.

Early into his first term as an elected president in 2000-2004, Putin radiated optimism about what he believed would be a Euro-centric, or even an Atlantic-centric, future for Russia and some of its post-Soviet neighbors.

It might be difficult to fathom today, but, in the early 2000s, Putin discussed Russia’s possible accession to NATO with Lord Robertson and reportedly Bill Clinton, and pursued a partnership with the alliance.

Around the same time, Putin continued his predecessor’s policy of harmonizing Russia’s laws and regulations with the EU’s—even viewing Ukraine’s would-be membership in the bloc as a “positive factor.”

“Of course, Russia is a very diverse country, but we are part of Western European culture,”

Putin was very accomodating with the Americans. He wanted quid pro quo. In the circumstances, his approach was just logical . The US had made promises and he had to take them at their word unless they proved otherwise.

U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University

But by 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia had joined NATO, in contradiction to US’s promises. It was betrayal .

Putin doesn’t like betrayal. Like many Russians he experienced the betrayal of the Soviet political class at a personal level, perhaps more so than others because he saw it not only from its effects on family and friends, but from inside the System as a KGC officer.

The US betrayal was the second big betrayal at the national level.

By 2007 that betrayal was pretty obvious.

Are you the same as you were 25 years ago? No? Putin isn’t either. But you can look back and see how people develop and evolve— the dynamics of adjustment and change. This applies to VVP as to anyone else.

In my special articles, I have had to research Putin’s biography and his development. Putin came from the Streets of St. Petersburg. He is uniquely gifted.

He is a polymath and autodidact with a wide range of competencies in history, literature, law, even engineering. He is clearly a bottom-up “rhizomatic” thinker, with few preconceptions — enhanced by high intelligence and logic although qualified by emotional sensitivity, humanistic and spiritual values.

He makes connections others might miss and he sees patterns. Proof of what I am saying? Look at those 5 hour press conferences. What other world leader would be capable of that? Look also at interviews.

Socially, he is reported to be rather shy. You can see this very clearly in his interviews with Oliver Stone. He is modest, personal, and honest.

In terms of conflict, Putin has been very much influenced by the philosophy of Jigaro Kano, the founder of Judo, which basically aims to let an opponent defeat himself. Movement in Judo is circular, not linear. It is all about balance and position. It is a defensive art.

Trump is a bully like so many that Putin met on the streets in St. Petersburg. As a kid he would try to avoid conflict with such people since he was smaller and weaker, and “talk them down”. But….

Almost everyone who knew him as a child remembers that he stood up for the weak, and that although he was short and puny, he was brave enough to fight boys stronger and heavier than him.

He went all the way and would not give up.

Sometimes he won. Sometimes he lost. He learned not to assume anything, including victory.

He also learned that friends are those who were honest to him, even if they differed and kept their word. The greatest sin for him is “betrayal”.

Now, of course, Trump has committed the ultimate betrayal with the attack on Putin’s home and nuclear command center. There will be no forgiveness for that.

So Putin is retaliating . The Oreshnik strike in Lviv was just the beginning.

In Judo, you lose when you are off-balance. When was Trump ever ON-balance?

Anyone can be capable of self-deception. Trump was shaped by privilege. Putin however was shaped by existential challenge, which continues to this day.

Don’t expect him to think the way most people do, though.

Berletic & Iran

To supplement my recent posts on Iran…..

Animal Therapy

One of my commenters wrote about animal therapy for autistic kids. Believe me, it works!

Just click on the graphic below to read the whole article.

However, it is not just ‘autistic” people who find animals therapeutic. Other people do as well. Is there such a thing as “normal”?

Donald Trump is the first President in a Century not to have a pet. Biden had two unhappy and neurotic German Shepherds, Tells ya’ something.

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