Putin's winnin' weakness
CNN: UK foreign secretary says missile attacks on Ukraine shows "Putin's weakness"
As mentioned in my last article, withdrawal from Kherson was not a “defeat” but a tactical and strategic move. The West—or at least, the Western media -- took it as yet another sign of “weakness”.
Simultaneously with withdrawal from Kherson City, where reports indicate that the Ukrainians are carrying out witch hunts for “collaborators”, with media banned from the city and the killings as usual blamed on Russians, the RF took a number of strategic villages and towns along the front line:
A successful offensive by Russian troops has resulted in the complete liberation of Pavlovka (Donetsk People's Republic). Within the fighting for Pavlovka, Russian troops have destroyed up to 1,400 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 AFU Su-25 aircraft, 1 Mi-8 helicopter, 12 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles and up to 30 other armoured fighting vehicles. 6 artillery pieces, including 2 US-made M777 artillery systems, over 25 vehicles of various types and 28 unmanned aerial vehicles have been eliminated.
Now that list is the from the Russian MoD (Nov.22), whose figures have proven in the past to be pretty accurate, partially validated by Western Ukraine itself in its pleas for Western help. . Let us keep in mind, however, that figures of losses for the enemy side are almost always greater than what has actually occurred. “Overclaiming” is inevitable— unless you can actually count the bodies and tally up destroyed equipment.
In the Korean Air War, the American media claimed a kill ratio of 10:1 in favor of the Americans. A Rand Report, however, suggest 1.8: 1 and probably lower. The key therefore is always verifiability – which has to be evidentiary.
In the case of Pavlovka, the number of Ukrainian casualties might be less – but the Russians had to collect and bury the dead which the UAF inevitably leave behind, so “1400” (likely) reflects an actual body count, which suggests 1400 is in the ballpark.
Similarly, the numbers of destroyed equipment is verifiable. The evidence is sitting right there in the Pavlovka region, broken.
One dead tank. Two dead tanks. Three…. You get the idea.
Putting this aside to consider other UAF losses elsewhere, the UAF appear to have lost up to 2000 men in a single day, plus a lot of equipment.
If the losses were only half this amount it would be considerable.
Turning to mercenaries
In any case, such losses of men and materiel at this level are unsustainable over time, which is of course why a lot of the fighting by the Western Ukrainians is now carried out by a “shadow army” of mercenaries – the UAF’s Hessians.
The Russians have noted that a lot of the Ukrainians killed or captured are now a lot older. The UAF is scraping the barrel. The Hessians at least had the advantage of being all German; and trained the same way.
The UAF’s mercenaries, however, are a rag-tag mix of nationalities, with different experiences and languages—a Brit here, a Czech there, a jihadist ro two — none of them protected by the laws of war – a morale killer when the war goes badly for your side.
Who wants to be in the Russian version of Guantanamo Bay? Granted the Russian one is a LOT nicer! With no torture.
The UAF is constantly losing, as the SMO constantly evolves.
SMO 1.0 against the UAF was over in the first three months. Then came SMO 2.0 against the UAF / NATO which lasted up to and including the UAF’s desperate attacks in Kharkov and Kherson.
Now, with Russia accepting Eastern Ukraine as part of the Federation under their laws, you have SMO 3.0. It’s a completely new show with new venues.
SMO 3.0, concerts and street fights
The other SMOs were warm-up acts and special effects.
SMO 3.0 is the real concert, and we are just waiting for the Band to play.
The withdrawal from Kharkov was one of those choregraphy acts to entertain the audience while they wait.
Add to that victories in Pavlovka and other areas on the front line now, keeping in mind that the Russian strategy is not about gaining and controlling territory – but finding advantageous position relative to the enemy to destroy them – in strategic terms, a very, very different thing.
In a street fight, “standing your ground” is stupid. You don’t defend “ground” or “take ground”, you hurt your opponent anyway you can.
If he is bigger. Encourage him to attack, seeming to retreat as you move in circles to find vulnerabiltiy.
You hit him. But he’s big. So you have to hit him again and again to exhaust him.
After a while he is bloody and limping. His friends are tired of watching. They had thought of joining him when he looked like he might win. Now, they are afraid of getting hurt, too. “Omigod, gotta leave. Gotta call from Mom”.
The Russians go in circles, hitting, hitting, aiming for the belly. In this contest, the “belly” is not Nikolaev or Odessa, it is the electrical infrastructure of Western Ukraine— centered around Kiev.
But you won’t read much about the effects of these body blows on Western Ukraine in the Media, especially their consequences this winter.
The media have said that Russia has been losing since February 24, losing aircraft, tanks, running out of missiles, facing massive dissent at home, with Putin’s popularity plummeting 0.6% to below 80%. This is a Theme, which we all learned in English 101 was essential to get an A. Most journalists got a D in that course.
Not all themes are equal — or valid—and a dumb theme damns you. Themes ‘z Memes.
Russia is not weak. Nor China. This war began because the Empire is failing — because the US is weak.
Vlad is not the “killer”. That’s Joe.
Russia does not seek empire but the US does.
The US is built on lies as much as anything else.
Lies unfortunately kill. And blood stains are hard to erase.
Therefore, with Russia winning and putting truth to power, distractions are needed to maintain illusion.
Now you see it, now you don’t. .
From that recent headline you get that Russians are now murdering Poles. Attacking a NATO country. Oops. Article 5.
Fox added “Biden has promised to defend 'every inch' of NATO territory”. War, war, war. Nuclear explosions? Do I see a mushroom cloud in your future?
Having pointed the gun at your head , Fox pulls the trigger. Hahaha! No bullets! But it got your attention right. Then:
Fox News, the official mouthpiece of the Republican Party is on the wagon, snorts the same lines (pun) as CNN.
At least Fox was a little less Tabloid-ish than the Brits— as B. at MoA points out in one his masterful articles.
Still, you wonder why is Biden missing a chance to blame “the Killer”, the “Tyrant” for something EVIL? Is Joe going soft?
And it is not a result of the Viagra that Vlad’ got from Gaddafi and is handing out to Willy for his Willy.
Don’t worry about becoming a black stain on what used to be the floor. Poland has not triggered Article 5 because there was no “attack”.
Rather the Poles invoked Article 4, which just means NATO members get together in Brussels for their famous sprouts, wine, and discussion, the weather, the food, porn…whatever… sicne no one really wants to talk about the Ukraine. .
What hit Poland is described as Russian designed missiles, which of course equip the Ukrainians, mostly old BUK and S300 models.
Since these missiles are pretty ancient-- like Biden-- they have their version of electronic dementia and can easily go astray —like Joe-- or just blow up over the Ukraine, showering debris in all directions, including across borders.
Errant UAF missiles have already killed a lot of Ukrainians,
Now, if you are Biden’;s neocon minder, here’s a juicy opportunity to get NATO to supply more missile systems and money and the like to Zelensky’s regime— get extra funding from Congress and maybe do some money laundering or Hunteresque hanky panky. The always excellent Larry Johnson writes:
…the financial collapse of FTX, which is exposing evidence that the Democrats, some Republicans, the Ukrainians and FTX organized an elaborate financial kickback scheme. The scheme involved promising members of Congress who sent money to Ukraine a hefty contribution in turn from a Democrat benefactor. In this case, the owner of FTX. Once the U.S. dollars were credited to Ukraine’s account, President Zelensky and his partners diverted some of the proceeds to purchase crypto currency from FTX. FTX, in turn, sent some of that funds back to the cooperating members of Congress and the Democrat National Committee.
FTX is not proven, of course. But if there is no fire, there is sure a lot of smoke. Just as there was with Hunter.
NATO has limited inventory of military goodies left and simply cannot supply enough systems effective against, say, advanced versions of the Kalibr cruise missile which have Mach 3.0 end speeds and defensive maneuvering capabilities. No, NASAAMS won’t work.
So far, successful intercepts, clearly exaggerated by Ukrainian propaganda, have been pretty much limited to the older, subsonic versions of Kalibr.
No matter that US systems don’t work as advertised The money will go the defense industry, whose owners will get richer producing loads of super-duper stuff as they always do,
In the case of US military aircraft, only 5 out of 49 types are “mission capable”. Nobody much cares because for the US, its toys for boys - and for girls who want to be boys. Like toy guns they are just about as useful.
The United States is spending billions on the equivalent of Lamborghinis while Russia is buying rugged Toyota 4 wheel drive pick ups
Thanks to sanctions on Russia and China it will take three times more time as it used to to produce those Lamborghinis – and that’s a LONG wait, considering the F35, the world’s most expensive fighter program in development is still not “mission capable”.
Song and dance. The song off-key. The dance, stumbling. Who cares when you’re high. The West’s oxy’ is propaganda.
In any case, the Empire is walking back the story that Putin bombed Poland, fully aware that people will believe it anyway.
“While we still don’t know all of the facts, we do know one thing: This tragedy would never have happened but for Russia’s needless invasion of Ukraine and its recent missile assaults against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure,” Linda Thomas Greenfield said before the U.N. Security Council. “The UN charter is clear – Ukraine has every right to defend itself against this barrage. Defend its sovereignty. Defend its territorial integrity,” she added. Thomas Greenfield said that Russia on Tuesday carried out “the widest scale missile attack since the beginning of the war.”
Of course, the people of Eastern Ukraine had NO right to defend themselves against ethnic cleansing by Western Ukrainians, that cost 15,000 lives.
Ironies. Contradictions. History’s biggest clusterfuck.
America as Dorian Gray
What is this really about?
It must be obvious to even the half wits of the Western clucking classes, that the Russians will win in the Ukraine, which will cease to exist in any recognizable form. It is clear that the multipolar world that is the goal of both Russia and China, not to mention of India, Brazil and much of the world is fast becoming a reality – faster than anyone had predicted.
The Hegemon—the Emperor of Lies— has an avatar – Joe Biden, an ageing, semi-senile old guy with a great plastic surgeon and helpers, pretending to know what he is doing, manage his wardrobe and tell him what to say. The Avatar is as naked as the Emperor.
The lies are unraveling. The true face, like Dorian Gray’s is being revealed.
Who is Julian Macfarlane
I am 76. Yes, I know, my profile picture, which is recent, looks younger look younger. There is a reason my book is called "Ageing Young-- You're Never to Old To Rock and Roll", the title given to me by David Bowie's lead guitarist and songwriter! I write a lot about health issues, ageing successfully and cognitive issues like ASD—and… umm…genius. Recently, I have turned to geopolitical issues. I have worked in the media for almost 50 years. I was a stringer in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War. Then I was in Korea. And after that in Japan where I studied martial arts and Buddhism and did a lot of things: union organizer, writer, broadcaster, media analyst, beer and pizza. I am neither Left nor Right. I have trouble with that: tell me to turn right and I may go left and vice versa. It’s a cognitive disability, as aspect of my ASD.. Politically,I prefer to say I am "multipolar". Which is probably what most people are. People who label themselves "left" or "right" seem to be limiting themselves to an ideology. Guess that is OK if you are paying membership dues to a political party. But I don't have money for that.