I haven't commented on the question of Russian retaliation for recent terrorist attacks by Ukraine and by attacks on Russian strategic nuclear facilities, which now seem were almost certainly carried out with the connivance of the CIA and Mi6. Moon of Alabama as a very good article on this.
Retaliation on Ukraine
Last night the Russians struck Kiev and Odessa and other places in Ukraine with over 500 missiles and drones.
This was clearly retaliation for the terrorist attacks and also an expression of Russia's new policy – to treat the Kiev regime as a terrorist organization, and not subject to the protections normally afforded legitimate governments.
The strikes were all against military targets – with the single exception of the UK's visa office in Kiev which was burned down to the ground. Of course, everybody who's anybody in Kiev already has a UK visa. Still, it sends a message.
The Russian advance continues, with Russia now can controlling more of Ukraine in the North than it does in the South! Once it has disentangled the web of fortifications in the South – the Maginot Grid – we will see the same kind of rapid progress on the West Bank of the Dnieper that we see in Sumy, which in some respects has similar terrain.
I think it is quite clear to every Russian from the government on down to taxi drivers on the street, that Ukraine cannot be allowed to continue to exist as it once was: that it has to be purged. It is not as difficult to do such a cleansing as you might think because a lot of the population of Ukraine is actually in the east and south, ethnically mixed rather than “Ukrainian”, and not too enthusiastic about its government and its mobilization programs.
In "Western Ukraine" there only between 10 and 13 million people, two thirds of whom are Russian-speaking and would adapt quickly to Russian governance, especially if given jobs and allowed to benefit from a thriving economy.
It is most likely that the Russians would follow the policy they adopted in Chechnya and recognize a Russian friendly government run by locals which would assist in stamping out Nazi ideologues. The Banderites would respond with violence intensifying the division but in the end flee as they did at the end of World War II to the US, Canada, the UK and Europe.
That process could take several years, however, if the pattern follow what was seen years before in Chechnya.
On the other hand, the Ukraine is a big place and there is lots of empty land, There are likely to be a lot of demographic shifts, and the Russian emphasis on ethnic pluralism and respect for diversity will accelerate that. Ukraine is ethnically and linguistically polyglot You can expect a new demographic distribution.
The war is very clearly in its final stages. It will take time to reduce the Ukrainian military before the Russians can get on the job of bringing the neo-Nazis to justice in a very public way.
Retaliation on the West
That leaves the question of retaliation against the West for the attacks on Russian strategic facilities.
The US and the British, of course, insist that they had nothing to do with these attacks. But when the Kiev regime collapses Western complicity will come out in the open – with indisputable evidence. It is only a matter of time.
In the meantime, the Russians can retaliate asymmetrically in ways that will distract the Evil Empire.
One option is of course to upgrade military support for Iran-- and also to start supplying Hezbollah and the Houthis with advanced weaponry. That would take place only if Hezbollah and the Houthis were willing to use such weapons with deadly effect and under Russian direction— big “ifs”.
Another option might be to provide insurgents with weapons for attacks on the remaining US bases in Syria, if not on US bases in the oil states – or elsewhere.
What you will NOT see is a retaliatory strike very, very far beyond the borders of Ukraine such as attack on Diego Garcia, wiping out British and American assets there. Bases, bases, bases— the US is vulnerable worldwide. There are lots of bases closer.
Of course, the Russians could just wipe out GCHQ headquarters in Cheltenham with an Oreshnik –it would make such lovely fireworks on a summer’s day.
Still, the Russians are aware that the West is in decline and like all doddering empires delusional and capable of suicidal craziness. It will destroy itself without Russian help, given enough time— but one might want to stay out of its way.
The Kremlin recognizes that the US and UK are politically unstable.
Trump is just one in a long-line of Presidents, each more incompetent than his predecessor – just in a different way. Obama was a terminally narcissistic fake Black Guy. Biden had dementia. Trump still has only a few wits left. That’s actually bad news. A half-wit is sometimes more dangerous than someone with no wits at all.
The West is a like a sailing ship of old. The Captain is locked in his cabin, drunk. The sailors are killing each other. And the ship has no map, no navigator and no destination. Also no cargo. In the future…the Flying Dutchman?
Coffee makes you happy,,,
Says my friend, the Quokka, an Aussie animal that is always happy. No it’s smile is not AI - it’s real. It’s a genetic thing.
They are also friendly ==although like all wild animals they will bite when they feel threatened—ummm…just like you. .
I've heard around that the Russian strikes have been planned some time ago and therefore retaliation for the terrorist attacks hasn't even begun yet. Given that the Russians do not give a damn about showy, PR-centered and ultimately useless or self-defeating acts (unlike the Anglo-Ukrainian cabal who seems to be obsessed in "symbolic" attacks like on the Kerch bridge and the Kursk incursion) we'd better assume reprisal will come from an entirely unexpected direction and probably not even military in nature (just imagine if the secret services start getting evidence on EU election frauds and handing it over to opposition parties all over Europe, that's a can of worms that would be very difficult to cover up again). That said, I've also read somewhere that the SBU building in Kiev is usually full with American and British "advisors". Given that the SBU has claimed, or rather boasted, responsibility for the terrorist attacks, that would make it a legitimate target for an Iskander or Kinzhal... (no point wasting an Oreshnik on those bottom feeders, I'd say one would have to deserve the honor of being on the receiving end of an oreshnik)
Max and the Judge are a great team. It is Mi6