Ritter? Wrong?

When experience and training trip you up

I read Scott Ritter a lot and regard him as an intelligent and well-informed reporter of events. On occasion, however, his analyses are somewhat lacking – not that my own aren't also.

Most recently, he was interviewed by Danny Haiphong about the Israel strike on the Iranian embassy— as well as the WCK humanitarian convoy atrocity.

In the interview, Ritter “puts on his military hat” to say that Israel has dealt Iran a crushing blow by assassinating the Qds team in Damascus, coordinating Iranian military assistance to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. This team was led by Gen. Zahedi— who Ritter notes has had 20 years of experience in the region— according to him, drinking tea with everyone who matters. These people, he says, are irreplaceable.

He also says that the Americans must have known the Israelis would be hitting the WCK food aid workers. That the Americans and the Israelis— well, share more than just pizzas, as he used to do with Israeli intelligence colleagues.

The US and Israeli militaries are highly integrated, he suggests.

What's wrong with this analysis?

What's wrong with it is Ritter's “military hat”—which is old issue and worse for the wear.

Ritter joined the military as a private in 1980 and was commissioned as an officer in 1984 eventually becoming the Marine Corps Rapid Deployment Force lead analyst for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iran–Iraq War. He worked as a weapons inspector for the United Nations Special Commission from 1991 to 1998.

So, he has both training and experience.

But sometimes training and even experience gets in the way of accurate assessment. Things change – especially in war. And suddenly what you thought was the case just isn't anymore.

This has been shown to be the case especially in Ritter's strategic analysis of the war in Ukraine. He thinks as American military people do— his perceptions shaped by military doctrine passed down as truth over the years. Keep in mind his experience is more than 30 years old. Putting on that “military hat” invites trouble.

The American military is an authoritarian top-down system with great emphasis on seniority rather than competence. If Lloyd Austin were assassinated, things might actually improve with the US military! But he will be protected at all costs. And keep on doing stupid stuff.

In other countries, military leadership is different is different. Russia has lost a lot of generals who are expected to lead from the front, exposing themselves to risk – something that does not happen with Western militaries.

When a Russian general is killed, he is replaced by either his second-in-command which is often an improvement because these people are used to handling the details of command rather than executing policy as it's handed down from above—or a younger commander who may not have years but has demonstrated real ability. The leadership in either case often turns out to be pragmatic, practicable, and innovative.

Ritter is wrong about the Iranian generals being “irreplaceable”.

Command will shift to capable leaders who may not have been drinking tea with Hezbollah leaders for 20 years—but are knowledgeable, flexible and motivated— and can cooperate tactically and think strategically. That’s what the Qds Force is all about.

The Americans may be sending the Israelis long-range F-15 fighters to threaten Iran —but these aircraft cannot change the military balance in a conventional war between Iran and Israel, given Iran’s rapidly developing air defense system and its strategic position.

It's a bit like sending F-16s to Ukraine. Good for the US defense industry – but nothing else.

In a worst-case scenario, the Iranians will close down Persian Gulf—which could precipitate an economic crisis that would sink the American economy already dog paddling frantically.

As I said before, Israel is surrounded. Its economy is already tanking and it’s managing its two-front war with Hamas and Hezbollah very badly.

So far, the Russians do not use their air defense systems – such as the S 400 – in Syria except to protect their own bases. But their attitudes towards the Israelis are hardening— as we can see with the new treaty between Russia and Iran. The Russians can use proxies, too.

Sorry Scott – this aint 1995.

The advent of the Zircon missile means the end of American naval supremacy. If push came to shove, the Americans could leaves every one of their aircraft carriers on the high seas-- within hours. Billions of dollars gone and thousands of lives lost. The capability of Chinese long-range hypersonic missiles has always been questioned but the Zircon has demonstrated efficacy. Apart from its warhead, it delivers a 2000 kg punch with kinetic energy alone! And it cannot be intercepted.

My criticism of Ritter should in no way diminish his excellent work in other areas and his huge contributions. Nor should it be taken as denying that the US and Israel are not bedmates—they do cooperate where their needs and interests will align.

They have been married a long time – but that doesn't mean they can't be divorced.

I am quite sure that Israel forewarned the US that it was conducting a strike on “Hezbollah assets”in Syria – which usually means the Qds force.

I'm equally sure that they did not tell the US they were attacking an embassy.

Now, the US is in the unenviable position of not only defending genocide but violations of international law which will put its own international missions at risk. No US Embassy, no Israeli Embassy is now safe.

As for the attack on the humanitarian convoy, Larry Johnson has the best take on that! It's obvious that Israeli commanders knew what they were doing. It is also unlikely that they shared this information with the US – any more than they would share information on other atrocities.

As I and many others have pointed out, the faux mea culpa of Israel rings quite hollow because this kind of criminal behavior has been a Standard Operating Procedure of Israel since the start of hostilities on October 7. The following video is quite good. Looks like some key Brits are now pissed off enough that they will pressure the Rishi Sunak’s Government to cut off aid to Israel.

The US will keep on doing what it's doing – or rather what is not doing. Because it really doesn't allow itself any options. The Israelis will keep on doubling down on stupid.

The Axis of Resistance will continue doing what it's doing. But with an up side.

Yes, a lot of Palestinians are dying and things may get worse before they get better. But Palestinians have been dying since 1948. They have nothing to lose – and everything to gain through resistance. At some point, the international community will step in and there will be elections in Palestine – which will confirm the will of the Palestinian people 20 years ago – that Hamas is the rightful government.

Israel is by definition a rogue state—determined not to abide by the UN's 1967 resolutions. But, by the time Palestine achieves statehood – which appears inevitable – it will also be a failed state.

Maybe the US will give Israel Rhode Island.

Thanks Again

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