What Ritter (and Everbody Else) Got Wrong
Everyone’s favorite military “expert”, Scott Ritter is much in the news, despite being wrong half the time and continually reversing himself. How we love our “experts”. Hooyah!
Ritter, as you may know, is a former Marine Corps office, who achieved prominence in the prelude to the Iraq War as a weapons inspector. He was right then. Iraq did not have WMD.
In the case of the Ukraine SMO, he has made various predictions, which he now calls "possibilities", since most of what he said would happen, didn’t – or at least not didn’t eventuate in the way that he said it would
For example, he predicted Russia would "win" the "war" in the first week. The first week didn’t go exactly as he thought it would because the SMO wasn't a "war" as he understood it and the Russians weren’t playing by the American rule book.
As a American military officer, Ritter inevitably thinks “show & awe”, emphasizing the importance of military tech—y’know hugely expensive super-tanks, drones, stealth fighters, etc, etc. That doctrine proved futile in Afghanistan where the enemy were simple villagers with WWII weapons. But little boys love their toys. And so do Marines.
Marine doctrine additionally emphasizes what Ritter calls "maneuver combat", which for Marines means mobility on the ground, with total air supremacy. But this doctrine is based on a simple-minded reading of strategist Colonel John Boyd's much more complex philosophy of conflict—not just “war”—but all conflict -- encompassing military, economic, moral and mental aspects of strategy. Hooyah!
Ritter knew that the RF would have air superiority and could restrict the mobility of the UAF from day one. That would have won the “war”, if the Ukraine had been attacked by the US who would just reduce the country to rubble with a million or so civilian casualties, leaving a smoking wasteland, polluted by DU munitions. Goodbye Kiev. Hello Fallujah. Hooyah!
However, for the Russians, such wanton destruction would not be victory, certainly not against people sharing the same language, culture and history. Theirs was a huge police operation, not a war. They did not want to “save” the village by destroying it.
In contrast to Ritter, I argued early on that the "war" would have four phases: military-- meaning achieving military superiority, taking somewhere between two weeks and a month, demilitarization, destroying Ukrainian military infrastructure ; denazification -- destroying or capturing Ukrainians neo-Nazis and their social and political infrastructure , and finally consolidation -- a new political map for the Ukraine, with a return to 1922 borders and much of the Ukraine as part of Russia, except perhaps for a isolated rump state in Galicia.
I estimated that this process would be substantially over by May.
Now, it is obvious that this process is more complicated than I thought it would be – and is going to take longer. I was wrong. The UAF is still fighting, hiding out in the nooks and crannies of Donbass. But Ritter was…more wrong. And now he is saying that the US will prolong things further supplying hi-tech weapons. But the Ukraine 2022 is not Afghanistan 1990. And that “value-added’ glitzy hi-tech stuff doesn’t work as advertised, just like the F35 and the LCS. Hooyah? Hooey.
The UAF was doomed months ago when it allowed its main army to isolated in Donbass. It continues to fight because Zelensky is just another American puppet – but it does so at the cost of credibility with its people. Sending the UAF a few fancy drones carrying Hellfire missiles is putting lipstick on a pig.
Still, the Western military establishment, which includes Ritter, of course, is locked into a one-dimensional view of the conflict.
Putin's strategy, however, takes into account all the dimensions of the battle for the Ukraine – as part of larger war, a world war, which the US declared against the world, two decades ago when it discovered its empire was declining. Putin has adapted. He’s taking his time in the Ukraine. Having demonstrated military superiority, he is demonstrating moral superiority – saving lives rather than taking them.
US and "allied" funding of weapons for the Ukraine may prolong the conflict but at the same time, it weakens the West economically. There is no money for the things it needs. Hyperinflation can only cause social unrest.
Sanctions do not harm Russia—which actually benefits.
Rather, sanctions harm the world other than Russia, China and the BRICS countries.
You are either with us or against us. And the US has declared war with all countries not specifically under its control.
In September, you will see a lot of countries, defaulting on their debt in dollars, which will hurt the dollar, already severely damaged. Russia was preparing to default on its debt, turning the US controlled international financial system to its advantage. Countries that default will need an alternative financial system, which is now being formed in Eurasia. Russia, China, Iran, India, and soon Brazil are creating an alternative financial system, while the US global financial dictatorship crumbles. By de-industrializing, the US retired as a hegemon, ruling through financial exploitation.
The Ukraine will be finished soon enough.
Biden is a fit symbol as leader, a doddering old man who shakes hands with invisible people. He was finished before he started.
You will see a new congress in the Fall. And in their war with the Democrats, the Republicans will take no prisoners. That will signify the end of the US—a divided country with an unworkable political system.
The US will be finished too. The political map of North America must inevitably change. Hooyah!
Julian Macfarlane
Canadian media analyst / writer. 40 years in Japan. Has worked for every major Japanese company including Toyota as media advisor the middle east. More than 200 articles on political events and propaganda. Author of "Ageing Young: You're Never Too Old To Rock 'n Roll", a seminal study of evolutionary psychology.
Julian Macfarlane
Canadian media analyst / writer. 40 years in Japan. Has worked for every major Japanese company including Toyota as media advisor the middle east. More than 200 articles on political events and propaganda. Author of "Ageing Young: You're Never Too Old To Rock 'n Roll", a seminal study of evolutionary psychology.
Yeah. That aged well. Seems the author shares the same abysmal record of accuracy as Ritter. BTW, the GOP was trounced in the US and their economy is on the rebound, conquering inflation (0.2% in October) and enjoying the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, to be enhanced by dozens of chip manufacturers relocating to their shores. Meanwhile, sanctions are just beginning to bite Russia hard as they rely on salvaged washing machine chips, their oil and gas revenue plummets, the EU prepares to impose an outright ban on Russian oil and gas, an era of de-industrialization is on the horizon and forced mobilization has resulted in a brain drain that continues to this day. Funny how facts interfere in one's anti-Western fever dreams.
Haha..... Seven months later and this article is even stupider than it was in June. First off, let's clear up some economic issues. The US GDP exceeds 20 Trillion, not the 14 Trillion shown on that fake chart, and it's forecast to grow by over 2% in 2023. The only economic threat the US faces now is the threat of default by the irresponsible morons and extortionists who temporarily control the House for the next 2 years.
Mr. "Morality" Putin has decimated all those Ukrainian cities you claimed he wouldn't turn into rubble, and Russians have suffered such huge losses that he's not only instituted another round of general mobilization but has taken to using untrained Wagner Group convicts as front line cannon fodder. Yeah, he's such a moral paragon. His war has become so popular that, for this round of mobilization, he's closed the borders so anyone with a brain can't escape the country. After 6 months of heavy losses, Orc rapists, looters and marauders finally took Soledar, an inconsequential town of 10,000 people. Hooya' motherfuckers. Patriot anti-missile systems are on the way, as are Leopard 2 tanks and other heavy arms. Ukraine is destroying military targets inside of Russia now and Bachmut has degenerated into a meat grinder fertilizing Ukrainian soil with tens of thousands of Orc corpses.
The entire free world is lining up behind Ukraine and against Russia and its only allies in N. Korea, Iran and Syria. Brazil has already shed its pro-Putin fascist president and the threat of secondary sanctions will soon stop the rest of BRIC's efforts dead in its tracks. Do you seriously think China and India would risk trade sanctions to preserve their markets in an economy smaller than California, NY or Texas alone? Putin is whining for a negotiated settlement, something he wouldn't do unless he knows he's on the losing end of things. Hooya! .
Russia's GDP is shrinking. Oil and gas sales are down between 50 and 70% and oil is under the $60/bl cap placed on it by the EU. Bad news for a country that's essentially a gas station with an army.
Meanwhile, nothing pro-Putin Republicans can do in the US will affect anything. No bill from the republican controlled House will make it past the Democratic Senate or that "doddering old man". All they can do is hold constant fake investigations and foment culture wars. Ukraine will continue to receive massive amounts of aid from the US, Poland, France, Canada, UK, Germany and even from the new fascist gov't in Italy. You can also look for American F-16's to be flying over Ukraine soon. They aren't training dozens of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16's for shits and giggles.
Hooya, Dumbass.