Simplifying Simplicius

The excellent Simplicius is one of the best news aggregators on Substack. Recently, he produced an interesting article on Venezuela.

Buried beneath the theater of the Ukraine war’s terminal crescendos, Trump’s administration has quietly tightened the noose around Venezuela.

Naturally, I don’t agree with everything he says. I don’t agree with everything I say either. LOL.

First of all, Trump is not quiet. He trumpets. He tramps. His ever changing policy, if you can call it that, is mostly sound and fury signifying nothing— as old Bill would say.

Simplicius has posted an AP blurb about Tulsi saying regime change is over. And says:

How absurd can the mounting hypocrisies of the terminally-mad empire get before they runneth over

Sorry to say, they ran over a long time ago. The mad are crazy by definition.

As I have opined elsewhere, elsewhen, Trump’s new “reality” show is the whole world-and no more “real” than the old one. This show is called “The Global Apprentice”, and, oh, if we could only fire him!

I’ve worked in TV. We have this thing called “creative license”.

What you are about to see is based on actual events but some or all of the characters, events, and details have been fictionalized for dramatic purposes.

That includes Tulsi Gabbard apparently, fictionalized for dramatic purposes. Not to worry the series will not be renewed.

Oh, “No animal was harmed in the filming” . Only people.

Simplicius’ focus in this article on the strangulation of Venezuela is Bloomberg’s claim the Russian tanker Sea Horse was forced to ‘idle’ near Venezuelan waters by American warships.

OK. so it seems the Seahorse was just off the coast of Venezuela and the Stockdale was in the vicinity.. .

The Russian vessel, the Seahorse, was en route to Venezuela to deliver a fuel cargo on Nov. 13 when a US destroyer, the USS Stockdale, positioned itself in its path. The Russian vessel changed course, heading toward Cuba, and the warship sailed near Venezuelan territorial waters toward Puerto Rico. The Seahorse has since tried to approach Venezuela twice, but turned back both times, and remains idling in the Caribbean.

Question, the Sea Horse“tried” to approach Venezuela twice but the Stockdale was in the way?

Both ships were very close to Venezuelan territorial waters. Rather than trying to go east, why did the Sea Horse not just tack south west into Venezuelan territory ? I dunno. What I do know is that something doesn’t sound right here. Something missing.

Simplicius is an OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Operator). He writes:

Other OSINT operators have taken it further, and believe a full naval blockade of Venezuela’s economic corridor is in effect:

No one is reporting this, but the AIS data overwhelmingly shows tankers of Chinese or Russian origin are stopped or are not transiting in and out of Venezuelan waters over the past 24 hours.

Simplicius admits:

As far as we know, there have been no other reports of the US navy intercepting Russian or Chinese naval vessels. And in fact, the Americans, the Russians and the Venezuelans have not confirmed the Seahorse / Stockdale incident happening.

Some Russian commentators say the Bloomberg report is “fake”.

There are good reasons to believe this.

• Blocking Russian ships from going to Venezuela would violate the principle of freedom of navigation on the high seas unless there was authorization from the UN Security Council or a lawful self-defense scenario, neither of which appears to apply here.

• International law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (which the US is not a signatory to but unofficially respects), in principle prohibits one country from interfering with the vessels of another in international waters.

• Should the US contravene it with Venezuela, then China would have a precedent to block movement through the Taiwan straits, or traffic to Taiwan or in fact any movements in the South China Sea, on dubious pretexts.

• Blocking ships cannot be justified as self-defense unless there is an immediate threat of serious injury or loss of life.

• A blockade would require authorization from the UN Security Council, which has not been granted and which Russia would veto.

Now, just supposing that a US naval vessel approached a Russian tanker and scared it off, with loudspeaker warnings or something of this kind, this would be a mistake by the captain of the US vessel, putting the US maritime fleet at risk. If this actually happened, it might be why the US doesn’t want to admit to anything as in “Tanker? What tanker?” and the Russians and Venezuelans quite sensibly ignore .

Of course there are now rumors and chatter on X about other vessels of other nationalities— Chinese, Iranian, etc — being “intercepted”.

But there are LOTS of rumors on “X” of doubtful provenance.

One must always consider provenance. Bloomberg’s was Ambrey which is private Intelligence outfit in the UK staffed by former Brit military people. It is considered generally reliable but its links MI6 suggest it has a certain bias. How reliable have any of these Brit “private intelligence” outfits been?

I haven’t been able to find the actual Ambrey report but the timing is suspicious, just only days after Venezuela’s national assembly approved a 15-year extension of Russia’s PDVSA and Roszarubezhneft to operate two oil fields in the country’s south:

In any case, it appears Sea Horse docked and offloaded its cargo without event.

Remember I said “sound and fury”. Signifying?

Simplicius provides details of the extensive Western media hype about Trump’s threats and congressional authorization of the use of force , not to mention the explosion at the oil plant in Venezuela which the government there attributes to CIA operations.

And there is that vote in the Senate authorizing the use of force against Venezuela.

The American public however, is not convinced.

Still, looking at Simplicius’ article you see huge efforts by the media to demonize Venezuela. That “narrative” is reminiscent of the one invented for Russia which was :

• a dictatorship run by a political criminal (Putin)

• the people rising up under freedom fighters like Navalny

• a collapsing economy

• a country hobbled by sanctions and stolen reserves

The difference is that Russia is big and very strong and Venezuela, while rich in resources, which the West covets has been until recently poor and militarily weak.

But that may be changing.

T Venezuela has recorded eighteen consecutive quarters of economic expansion, a milestone President Nicolás Maduro attributes to the nation’s Bolivarian Economic Agenda and its strategic pivot toward food sovereignty, industrial diversification, and regional integration. According to official data and international projections, Venezuela economic growth is not only real—it is accelerating, defying years of external pressure and widespread skepticism.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) now forecasts a 6% increase in Venezuela’s GDP for 2025, following a remarkable 9% growth in 2024. This positions Venezuela as the fastest-growing economy in South America—more than doubling the regional average of 2.4%. Far from a statistical anomaly, this sustained recovery reflects structural shifts in production, trade, and fiscal management that are reshaping the country’s economic trajectory.

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The Human Impact: Jobs, Wages, and Social Recovery

Behind the GDP figures lies a tangible improvement in daily life. According to data from the National Employment Observatory, 644,000 new formal jobs were created in 2025—primarily in retail, agro-industry, and logistics. The number of registered commercial establishments grew by 130%, reflecting a surge in micro-entrepreneurship.

Wage recovery, though still modest, has outpaced inflation for the third consecutive year. Public-sector salaries, adjusted quarterly, now cover 85–90% of a basic family basket, compared to less than 20% in 2020. Combined with subsidized food networks (CLAP), free healthcare, and expanded public transportation, these measures have significantly reduced extreme poverty.W

As one street vendor in Valencia put it: “I used to sell just to survive the day. Now I save a little, send my kids to school, and even dream of opening a small store.” This quiet social renaissance—fueled by production, not aid—may be the most powerful indicator of Venezuela’s enduring economic turnaround.

This is not the Venezuela that you read about in the media as represented in Simplicius’ excellent article.

The fact is that sanctions are no longer working on Venezuela as they once did. While Venezuelan oligarchs still have immense power and Maduro clearly lacks the charisma and intellectual power of Chavez, the people of Venezuela either still support the revolution or hate the Gringos. Like Juan Guaido before her, neo-fascist Corina Machado, has disgraced herself in the eyes of the people by demanding an invasion that would take Venezuelan lives.

My guess is that Trump will move carrier forces elsewhere to deal with other threats with US pressure maintained at the same levels it has been for many years and many presidents. One indicator that the threat to Venezuela is overhyped is that China and Russia clearly do not seem worried.

So far Russia has not gotten involved — but it can play the media came too!

In the meantime, Venezuela has mobilized, support for the Chavistas is at an all time high, and the country’s relationships with Russia, China and Iran are blossoming.

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