Sorry, Larry...

Apologies to Larry Johnson

Why is US Intelligence Providing Bogus Numbers of Dead Russian Soldiers?

29 July 2025 by Larry C. Johnson 22 Comments

I am sort of surprised that no one has done what I am going to do… Provide a realistic calculation of the actual number of Russian casualties since the start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022. This includes Killed in Action (KIA) and Wounded in Action (WIA). Sy Hersh, in one of his recent posts, was fed a line of bullshit by a US military or US intelligence source. I don’t blame Sy… He simply reported what he was told. He wrote the following about the current Russian offensive, citing an official:

I was told: “all farmland, no fortified towns or critical communication sites. The monthly casualties have been 380 a month through May. The total now is two million. Most importantly,” the official stressed, “was how this number was described. All the best trained regular Army troops, to be replaced by ignorant peasants. All the best mid-grade officers and NCOs dead. All modern armor and fighting vehicles. Junk. This is unsustainable.”

Really? Two million since February 2022? The numbers don’t add up. If that was true, Russia has lost an average of 48,780 soldiers KIA or WIA per month. Let me show you why that is a garbage number.

I have been writing about Western “narratives”, as fictions intended to program the imagination of the public to accept what will in time be unacceptable.

I love Larry Johnson, especially his dogs and his shirts.

But I think he falls into a kind of trap – treating nonsense as though it were worthy of serious discussion. He calls it garbage - then proceeds to root around in it. Me? I dump it.

In this case, the nonsense comes courtesy of Sy Hersh, in a post behind a paywall.

The paywall should be a warning.

That’s what pundits do in retirement, building on accomplishments of years past, Hersh (people call him “Sy” to suggest familiarity) made his name writing about the Mai Lai Massacre back during the Vietnam War, and then the Watergate Scandal. All good work.

And in those days, the NYT has a few threads of integrity.

But recently Hersh’s track record has been spotty— partly because of his reliance on “anonymous sources”, which makes it difficult, of course, to confirm his allegations—and because of what is probably insufficient research. If you can’t confirm the first; you can’t confirm the second.

In recent years, his stories come out simultaneously with similar stories from others on the same subjects. The “sarin” gas attacks in Syria, Bin Laden, Nord Stream. We got a lot of stories – with a lot better research from others.

But Hersh speaks with the “authority”. He is another “authority figure” in a society invested in such people in journalism, academia, and the like. He is the Teacher. You, the Student. Please take notes— there will be a test later.

The trouble is that that Sy’s “authority” rests on a couple of major scoops in the pre-Internet age, when insider sources could be important, if substantiated by other information and hard evidence, as was indeed the case with Mai Lai and Watergate.

Every writer has “sources” Me, I have Chappy and Ichi.

But they are meaningless without a lot checking and research —especially personal sources!

Hersh hasn’t shown much of an inclination to do that kind of verification. He gets by with “a little help from his friends”, except that his “friends” may not be friends at all.

In any case, Larry does us a disservice by treating Hersh’s newest non-scoop seriously.

He writes, “ I don’t blame Sy...he simply writes what he was told”.

I, on the other hand, DO blame Sy for publicizing obvious lies.

Larry should spend his time reporting on things worth writing about. We live in a time, when he intelligence, intuition and experience are valuable. People listen to him.

I would also point out that while Larry says “no one has done what I am going to do… Provide a realistic calculation of the actual number of Russian casualties since the start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022. This includes Killed in Action (KIA) and Wounded in Action (WIA)”, someone has already done that!

His name? “Larry Johnson”. Previously, he did an estimate comparing relative advantages in fire rates. I think you will find other estimates if you search his site. That article is just one I remember.

The disparity between Russian fires and Ukrainian fires explains why Ukraine’s losses are so high. It is a simple question of math.

I and others have also done this kind of math too— although not as Larry does, using Mediazona’s sometimes criticized estimates compared to RF recruitment statistics or fire rates.

A simpler way is to calculate Ukrainian losses which are easier to figure out from a variety of statistics and other evidence; then assume the Ukrainians are losing between 7 and 13 soldier for every Russian killed, with many Ukrainian WIA becoming KIA due to poor medical care. Most estimates (and there are many) are around 1.5 million, which means Russian losses would be not more than 150,000,

But I am beating a dead horse. The point really is that we all know the truth of the matter. So what is there to prove?

And no matter what we say, the West will persist in its delusions.

Just don’t pretend the bullshit is the bull.

As you may know, I am a “high functioning autist”. I am not sure that such a thing really exists. On the other hand, I used to be just weird — but now I claim to be ….umm…a “behavioral disorder:?

No doubt this explains why I get along so well with Chappy and Ichi. As you know, all cats are autistic, although Ichi is very good at tail wagging and Chappy “fetches”.

OK…so all THREE of us need therapy. But it’s expensive.

It’ s the last day of the month so buy us coffee at the buymeacoffee.com so we can get professional help. Click HERE.

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