Oh what a tangled Web
More Weird Web Sites
As an analyst I have a very high success rate in prediction, maybe over 70%.
The secret to that is a sense that the “truth” is never one thing — but rather an unfolding which leads you to other unfoldings. Of course, it helps to be autistic. The so-called “Cassandra’ trait.
So I recognize that all sources, official or unofficial, are just beginnings to enquiry. I assume volatility. I understand that most people exaggerate and lie, motivated by all sorts of things from hope to desperation in an effort to achieve emotional stability. .
As you know, I am somewhat critical of Alt Media sources, that rely on clicks to operate and are therefore tied to specific audiences in the same way that the New York Times and Washington Post are influenced by their audiences. Are they really “Alt”? Or just another “normal”.
However, there are those sources that are different — that don’t monetize—not many, of course—Brian Berletic, for one, who only uses the buymeacoffee website for a little cash, for example. These are “outliers”. But even Brian’s exceptional point of view has its limitations.
Transcending limitations is important. I try to find as many perspectives as I can in the InfoVerse.
As a result, I am constantly looking for something even a little “different?
How about the YouTube Channel called Collapse Codex. Not much is known about it, including the identity of its host commenter. Its viewership and subscriber numbers are not released but estimates suggest a subscriber base ranging from 250,000 to 750,000 subscribers, with viewership higher and rising as people look for meaningful analysis which suggests the directions that events are taking in a chaotic world.
While many Atl Media sites focus on ‘personalities’ like Doctorow and McGovern and MacGregor who everybody knows by name, Collapse Codex just delivers analysis of stories appearing on the Internet— despite the difficulty of establishing the validity of media reports! Sometimes its information is “iffy”.
I found:
a. there are multiple versions of the Collapse Codex videos from different sources all over the Internet
b. my links to Youtube were blocked as “private”.
c. the main Collapse Codex site had taken down the video claiming 7 F35s were destroyed presumably because it was false.
I downloaded the originally videos and then uploaded the mp4s
Some examples.
The introductory graphic is the same as the next example video even though the content is different.
First attacks on the UAE.
SOURCES: U.S. Air Forces Central Command battle damage reports, UAE National Security Council statements March 13 2026, Reuters diplomatic sources, Khorramshahr-4 technical specifications, F-35A program costs.
First of all, the “sources” don’t actually support what the commenter is saying.
The destruction of the 7 F35s is a ‘claim’ that has not been verified.
Let us keep in mind that the US F35s on this base would be kept in hardened hangers which would require a precision missile strike. But Iranians have the missile and the Americans have no defenses against them. And, the US lies about almost everything.
So maybe it happened. Maybe (probably not). Maybe that under certainty bothers YOU. Me, not so much. The Iran War is a train wreck.
True or false , the report outlines at least one basic fact.
It doesn’t matter too much if a jet is shot down in flight - -or destroyed on the ground. As long as it is destroyed. Each F35 is worth about $100 million. 7 F35s and ancillary damage ? Close to a billion dollars!
Is the US would be dumb to leave F35s in the UAE, given what it has seen what Iran can do? Even if they move them out, are the rulers of the UAE dumb enough to allow them back?
Of course, we don’t know. What we do know is that the US and allies ARE dumb and they lie a lot,
Here’s a example.
Five tankers were “damaged” on the ground in the KSA.
3 F15s were shot down in Kuwait by “friendly fire”.
The US lost a tanker aircraft over Iraq, which independent sources indicate was shot down by a missile.
All 6 crew members died.
But the US claimed it was an accident. The US media defaults to CENTCOM which tries hard not to contradict an every more delusional White House !
Um….. Those “loitering missiles” change the game!
Will the UAE is capitulate to Iranian demands? Can it? Its rulers are owned by the Empire. The Iranian strategy is…well… strategic. Slow, methodical, one step at a time.
The US screwed the UAE and other Gulf States using the attack on Kharg Island as an excuse. Collapse Codex’s video is an extrapolation of Iranian claims, which, if exaggerated, are matched by greater exaggeration on the side of the UAE and he Americans, who claim to have shot down 90% of incoming drones and missiles!
My guess Iranian claims ae Hopium
American claims are Copium .
Next Israel,
SOURCES: IDF operational reports March 13-14 2026, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi emergency briefing, Fattah-3 technical specifications from Iranian defense ministry, Iron Dome/David's Sling/Arrow-3 engagement parameters, casualty reports from Israeli emergency services.
Here the anonymous commenter explains succinctly Iran’s advantage in attacking Israel; it’s missiles cannot be intercepted— and in the damage they do extends far beyond just collapsed buildings and civilian casualties. As I before, the Iranians are not using antipersonnel submunitions – they are using submunitions with enough explosive power to destroy infrastructure.
This particular warhead may not have done a lot of damage —but imagine 80 of them hitting all over the place — a shotgun blast.
The aim is not to kill people – as the Israelis do – but to destroy the infrastructure which is the basis of civil society—the economic and institutional basis of a society. A nuclear weapon will do all this in moments-- leaving a radioactive wasteland where no one could live in God knows where the winds would carry the radioactivity. Iranian missiles are a better solution. It takes more time to do the job but does not violate Islamic morality —while at the same time promoting social division. .
Israel is divided between secular Jews who tend to be rational and Messianic Zionists who are irrational and amoral. This kind of quasi-conventional war will lead to the emergence of a different kind of Palestine, similar to that envisioned by Yahya Sinwar. Well, one can hope anyway.
Collapse Codex makes the point that . Iran’s strategy, carried out over time, can be effective in destroying Israeli civil society and its institutions.
One step at a time. Right now it is should preparing the ground for the future, wrecking the US’s ability to protect is people in West Asia, not only its troops but its vassals.
My prediction? A lonnnng war!
This is why I have a beard….
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I like to watch those prominent commentators like Larry Johnson, Douglas McGregor, and Scott Ritter. At least they are entertaining. However, in this phase of the war, they don't have much reliable hard news to contribute, and their message is usually "US is screwed, the administration is a bunch of liars, and Iran wins by just surviving". OK, maybe they are right, but I'm looking for some deeper insights.
One interesting source is Larry Wilkerson. He has a solid military background, obviously has good inside sources he doesn't disclose, and is the only one besides Brian Berletic who argues that Israel is the proxy of the US, and not the other way round. On the other hand, he is very emotional and usually goes on a heavy rant with explicit language, which is sort of his trademark. Similar to his Russian equivalent Stanislav Krapivnik. Interesting to watch, but not always adds to the viewer's knowledge.
One of my favorites is Jacques Baud, an author of many worthwhile books about politics and warfare, with a lot of inside knowledge and a sharp mind, who gives logical in-depth explanations without ranting. His analyses of Ukrainian inside information around Arestovich earned him EU sanctions, which are sort of a house arrest sentence without a trial. He doesn't have his own channel, but appears regularly on various shows, like Nima Alkorshid, Patrick Lottaz, and Glenn Diesen.
It's a bit difficult to navigate through all this stuff.
Yes, forget about Russia's vaunted S-300/400/500 systems, who would have guessed that UAE have by far the best air defence systems. At one point they were claiming something like a 99.5% interception rate!
I have also wondered about all those US refuellers and transports in the region. If Iran is relentlessly striking all the US air bases how are the US not sustaining heavy losses and damage to those fleets?